was on SJRWMD's GIS this morning for another reason and pulled this graphic

these are some very high (>100ug/L) CHLa levels, Haulover looks similar

bloom for sure

Here's the link: http://webapub.sjrwmd.com/agws10/hdswq/

Titusville:

plot.png  (19 KB)

I'll be curious to see how the annual report on the BMAP treats these data.

The oxygen supersaturation is nuts. That's part of the issue with clarity. In addition to dense plankton there are precipitates forming because the pH is getting so high.

Hope we don't get an all-at-once bloom collapse. That would be bad.

^yeah, true on all counts

and fwiw,

we could fix fertilizer this year,

even with BIG $$$$,

it would take a decade or more to fix septic

oh, and...

bumper sticker.png  (103 KB)

My concern at this point is that even with drastic reduction of inputs, the internal loading will keep the system in a hyper-eutrophic state for a long time.

I'm worried that we are witnessing a flip to an "altered stable state" in which plankton become dominant over submersed plants in perpetuity. (like Lake Jesup, Lake Apopka, Lake Marion, Harris Chain....Chesapeake Bay).

This site is not working today.

was talking with some of the bio guys at work today

they say yes, the brown bloom is pumping right now

not unusually bad in their eyes, blooms are common now 

duration and spread remain to be seen

(caveat - I'm not a phyto guy, just relaying anecdotal info)

Saying it isn't that bad because it is now common is a sign that things are pretty bad.

Silver lining? Could a winter bloom suck up enough nitrogen that the water clears just in time for the growing season?

I'm  not very hopeful.

Seems the HABs folks at game and fish don't give a crap as long as it isn't Karenia Brevis and/or there isn't an acute die off of carismatic megafauna or prized sportfish.

Brown tide in the dead of winter is not common either.

hmmm, just heard channel 6 new people say something about red tide in lagoon.  someone is going to talk about it. 

Opening the locks on high tide and closing at low tide would create some flushing.

Core of Engineers looked at that too and the scouring from the hard flow from leaving the locks open when there is a couple of feet of head pressure would wreck the locks.

At the very least they'd have to retrofit the locks to tolerate that type of operation.

Plus the benefit would likely be restricted to the banana and near to the locks.

The lagoon needs a better supply of clean fresh water from the uplands in order to function at an optimal level, not an influx of full salinity sea water.

I hope we're not at the edge of the flip,

remember that we had 10 good years of water clarity and seagrass recovery 

right up until the superbloom.

I think that if we could essentially eliminate ornamental fertilizer

we could "buy" another 20 years.

This would be similar to the years "bought" by implementing the NPDES

which took the domestic wastewater discharges out of the Lagoons.  

Follow that up by realistic legacy load removal, ie: dredging for muck,

not just navigational dredging with a feel good "muck removal" component added in,

and full septic to sewer conversion and we have a real shot a saving the Lagoon.

Cheap and easy first - fertilizer control.   And start directing $$ to the other two expensive solutions.

Problem is sustained effort.  Few actually care if it's not in the news.

St. Augusting lets you know when it is getting hungry. You know who and when fertilizes during the wet season by the color and vigor of the grass.

It is a majority of people still.

I doubt if 1% of people riding over the causeways have any idea what the brown water below means. If they don't see/smell rotting carcases everywhere or see some crazy neon green color they just don't get it.

Plus there are a lot of people that refuse to be regulated on principle. I had one NSR regular tell me emphatically that natural lawns look like shit and that it was his land to do with as he pleased. The point about his not owning the receiving waters was not well recieved. He felt that if people care so much about the lagoon then they'll voluntarily change their ornamental horticulture practices. I think that opinion regarding the commons is common around these parts.

yes, those attitudes are out there and anecdotal

I don't have any measure of how prevalent they are compared to those who might be more interested in conservation

regaredless, that should not prevent repeating a formula of how we can restore the IRL

who knows, if you repeat it often enough....

Take a drive in August and you'll see who feeds lawns right through the wet season.

Some fraction of those don't have a clue and some fraction don't care.

Doesn't seem to matter which is which or who is who.

I'm curious to read the water bill that Scott just signed into law.