Check the GFS for the 25th. Latest run is excited about a Cabo verde system.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas
coastal plain near Houston.

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or
two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central
Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.
Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the system
moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Interesting to say the least, but EURO isnt on board at all.... Pretty stark dichotomy. GFS was more accurate with the Larry forecast, but I want to see the EURO at least hint at this before I sport a chub. (GFS historically gets super bullish on initial storm runs, so we'll see....) but with the NHC on board, and bullish, it's promising..... if forecast is accurate the NE is going to be firing..... NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Edited: 09/15/2021 at 06:04 AM by Plan B

Yeah. GFS has been doing really well for Caribbean, Gulf, and west Atlantic this summer. Remains to be seen if it has this latest Cabo Verde system worked out. This morning has yet another storm forming between here and Bermuda on the 22nd. Interesting forecast.

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I'm supposed to be at an OC-6 race on the West Coast on the 25th. Consider that my personal sacrifice.

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thanks! & good luck, scom!

How yoooo doin'?!?

Fabian 2.0? I was on Hatteras for that one. Got offshore winds at Salvo and Billy Mitchel all in one day because the front came through late morning and the wind went from SW to N about mid morning.

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Hah, the evolution of the model runs is going to be fun to watch that far out. Animation I just watched has it stalling between there and Bermuda for a couple of days.

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