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Topic Title: Next up this week. Topic Summary: NHC Monday morning outlook: Created On: 09/13/2021 06:48 AM |
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09/13/2021 06:48 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. |
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09/13/2021 06:49 AM
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Models keep the low East of Bahamas weak. Virtual buoys show small bump coming up. Shows recurve and away from land. Hopefully gets stronger than forecast for better surf.
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09/13/2021 06:52 AM
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I have yet to see any models showing a swell for this.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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09/13/2021 07:01 AM
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Both magicseaweed and stormsurf shows 2-3 feet mid-week. But that is debatable. Probably not showing due to that it is just speculation at this point. NHC says 50 percent chance to form so going on that. Models do show a small flare up, but...just something to watch.
For 1, tropical wave off of Africa, long range models do show it traverse the ITCZ as a spinny thing. But, small and weak. 80 percent chance of formation and so far away nothing will show from that unless it gets stronger. |
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09/13/2021 10:17 AM
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09/13/2021 03:15 PM
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09/13/2021 03:45 PM
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Monday Afternoon model runs keep the thing very weak. Probably nada.
2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. |
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09/13/2021 05:35 PM
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Check the GFS for the 25th. Latest run is excited about a Cabo verde system.
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09/14/2021 07:17 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near Houston. 1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. |
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09/15/2021 04:35 AM
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Edited: 09/15/2021 at 06:04 AM by Plan B |
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09/15/2021 06:24 AM
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Yeah. GFS has been doing really well for Caribbean, Gulf, and west Atlantic this summer. Remains to be seen if it has this latest Cabo Verde system worked out. This morning has yet another storm forming between here and Bermuda on the 22nd. Interesting forecast.
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09/15/2021 06:29 AM
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I'm supposed to be at an OC-6 race on the West Coast on the 25th. Consider that my personal sacrifice.
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09/15/2021 07:38 AM
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thanks! & good luck, scom!
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09/15/2021 11:08 AM
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How yoooo doin'?!?
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09/15/2021 11:49 AM
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Fabian 2.0? I was on Hatteras for that one. Got offshore winds at Salvo and Billy Mitchel all in one day because the front came through late morning and the wind went from SW to N about mid morning.
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09/15/2021 11:52 AM
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Hah, the evolution of the model runs is going to be fun to watch that far out. Animation I just watched has it stalling between there and Bermuda for a couple of days.
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09/15/2021 12:00 PM
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Couldn't ask for a better bday present, preseason PR swell??
------------------------- If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden |
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09/16/2021 04:01 AM
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09/16/2021 07:17 AM
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I want to believe in the stall. So bad.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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09/16/2021 07:20 AM
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Billy Mitchell Scom! Scored a sick left there, just an excellent wave with the offshore and such.
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