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Topic Title: Winter returns.
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Created On: 11/30/2020 04:43 AM
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 11/30/2020 04:43 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

It was a nice two week Autumn. Winter returns today.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...
...A Few Strong Storms This Morning Across East-Central
Florida...
...Cold Temperatures Beginning Tonight through early Wednesday,
with Frost Possible Wednesday Morning...


Today-Tonight...A strong cold front will move across the Florida
peninsula today, initially bringing a chance for strong storms this
morning, before passage of the front.

A developing line of showers currently over the eastern gulf will
quickly cross toward central Florida early today. While most of
this activity will move over east central Florida after sunrise,
fast-moving showers or storms may reach portions of Lake and
northwestern Volusia county by 6 AM.

Primary threats with any stronger storms will be wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph and occasional to frequent lightning, but an isolated
damaging wind gust up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Overall
confidence is somewhat low in severe potential, with the consensus
of regional guidance indicating a weakening trend as the broken line
of showers/storms crosses southward over the area. Best potential
for stronger storms will be roughly along and north of a line from
Poinciana to Saint Cloud and Cocoa Beach.

Main storm threats will be damaging wind gusts of 40-50 mph and
lightning strikes, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible. The
trailing cold front should move south of I-4 around 11 AM, and
Melbourne by early afternoon, and clearing the Treasure Coast around
sunset. Temperatures will reach highest of the day rather early in
the north, while being able to make it to the U70s or even 80
over South Brevard Co to the Treasure Coast before rain chcs
increase. Tonight, rapid cooling as temps fall through the 50s and
into the 40s. Expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s along and
north of Interstate 4, and in the mid to upper 40s south, except
low 50s in Martin County. West to Northwest winds around 10 mph
will result in wind chills in the mid to upper 30s from Kissimmee
to Scottsmoor northward.

Tue-Tue night...By far, the coldest day-night of the fall season
thus far is on tap for ECFL. Deep eastern CONUS mid-upper trough
will move slowly eastward, leading to a continued strong CAA
pattern. Model consensus keeps the surface high center west of the
longitude of the peninsular spine (near the central AL/GA border)
through 12Z, with the H925-H85 farther SW over souther MS/AL. This
should prevent low level flow from acquiring any meaningful onshore
component along the coast, keeping a light N-NW drainage flow in
place through sunrise. The only potential for *slight* mitigation
of the cold that I can see in the model guidance is some possible
CI late, hinted at in the upper RH progs, especially in the GFS.
However, the upper level flow looks confluent, which would inhibit
significant coverage/thickness of any high cloud deck. Therefore the
forecast remains largely unchanged.

Guidance has trended colder for Tue maxes, not surprising since MOS
usually overdoes maxes in strong post-frontal CAA. The forecast now
shows U50s for all but the Lake O/Treasure Coast areas (L60s), only
~55F across the far north. Mins will drop down to 34-36F over rural
northern Lake/Volusia Counties, with U30s well down the peninsula to
Lake O and the interior Treasure Coast counties. Slightly less cold
along the Space/Treasure Coast barrier islands (L-M40s) and Martin
County (M-U40s). Even with a light drainage flow in place, patchy
frost will be possible in wind protected areas, especially inland
from the immediate coast.

Wed-Fri...Fast/flat mid-upper flow pattern continues from mid-late
week. Weak vort ripples embedded in the southern stream moves from
the GOMEX across FL Wed night though Thu night, leading to an
increase in clouds/sprinkles and perhaps some accumulating light
rain showers Thu night-Fri, possibly starting as early as late Thu
afternoon. As the large cold surface high moves offshore the SE/mid
Atlantic coast, winds veer from NW/Wed to E/Thu and SE/Thu night.
A northern stream short wave trough is forecast to drag another cool
front across the FL panhandle Fri and into the peninsula Fri night.

Veering flow will modify temps through the period. Maxes mainly in
the 60s for Wed with mins randing from the M-U40s NW of I-4 to the
U50S-L60s along the Treasure coast, where winds will have veered
onshore. Maxes in the L-M70s Thu and M-U70s with mins U50s-L60s.

Next Weekend-Mon...While differences continue in the model handling
of individual short wave features, the longer wave pattern will
feature a trough over the eastern CONUS. This would keep ECFL in a
NW low-mid level flow pattern, with dry wx and below normal temps
through the period.
 11/30/2020 11:04 PM
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ww

Posts: 15182
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Perhaps 39 in Vero Tuesday night? Fairly serious.
 12/01/2020 10:33 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1020 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

Cooler and drier air has
settled over the FL peninsula behind the frontal passage last
night. A high pressure system will settle just north of the
region, leading to northerly flow around 5-10 mph, with gusts up
to 20 mph possible. A chilly day is forecast for today, with highs
only reaching in the upper 50s across the north and low to mid
60s down south. Some scattered high clouds remain as of 10 AM, but
these clouds are decreasing and is expected to be mostly clear to
clear today. No mentionable rain chances across the CWA this
afternoon and evening. Much lower dewpoints across the area today
will set the stage for overnight lows in the 30s tonight; with
lows in the low 30s near Lake George area and mid to upper 30s
everywhere else, except in the low to mid 40s in Martin county.
Expect patchy frost inland from pre-dawn through sunrise Wed.
 12/02/2020 07:32 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Anybody get any frost? 41F this morn at my house. no frost.
 12/03/2020 11:39 AM
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weldertom2

Posts: 1340
Joined Forum: 04/14/2005

46F, Downtown Melbourne Beach yesterday morning. No frost.
 12/03/2020 11:45 AM
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TATTOO74

Posts: 2320
Joined Forum: 10/26/2005

Not here, but a friend up in Mims did

Edited: 12/03/2020 at 11:46 AM by TATTOO74
 12/03/2020 02:11 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Mims must have been the cutoff line. Friend in Titusville said no frost. Oviedo frost. DT Orlando none.
 12/06/2020 11:35 AM
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surftech

Posts: 3023
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

My soursop tree just started to fruit and now it dropped a lot of leaves. I knew it was cold sensitive but thought it had enough protection.
 12/07/2020 05:37 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

i think soursop is a true tropical. Good Luck!

Looks like dropping into low 40s next couple of days, then back to mid-70s by weekend.

Got some rain overnight. Rye grass looking pretty great!
 12/07/2020 05:42 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Today...A quick improvement from north to south into this
afternoon as a cold front ushers in drier, cooler air. Clearing
out north of I-4 by late morning, the Space Coast by early
afternoon, and Treasure Coast by mid afternoon. Cool air keeps
highs in the mid/upper 60s from Melbourne north, and low 70s for
the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee region. Breezy behind the front late
this morning with occasional wind gusts up to 15-20 mph possible.

Tonight...A secondary reinforcing upper trough sweeps through the
region this evening as much drier air moves in, dropping PWATs
below 0.25" areawide. Temperatures steadily drop through the
night, reaching the low to mid 40s, and normally cooler spots in
northern Lake/Volusia counties could drop into the upper 30s. A
tad warmer in coastal Martin County and the barrier islands south
of the Cape where lows settle in the upper 40s to low 50s. The
combination of colder air and northwest winds around 10 mph result
in wind chill values as low as 33-38 degrees for inland areas and
along the coast from Melbourne north.

Tue-Thu...A much cooler/drier airmass will be in place across east
central FL during this time. Upper level troughiness will persist
along the Atlantic Seaboard and southeast U.S. and will help
reinforce the cool and dry air. This will be a period of below
average temperatures and no rainfall.

After a chilly start to Tue morning, highs will only recover into
the L60s on average. Tue night/Wed morning will see widespread lows
in the M-U30s with some lower 40 degree readings along the immediate
coast. We may have to add some patchy frost to the grids/zones for
this night. Wed highs will approach the L-M60s. Another chilly
overnight Wed into Thu morning as lows will realize U30s to L40s
with perhaps some M-U40s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts
and adjacent barrier islands. Highs on Thu recover into the U60s.
Winds will generally be NW/W. Skies will generally be MClear to
PCloudy.

Fri-Sun...Surface high pressure that has been across the region will
get nudged into the western Atlc ahead of an approaching cold front
forecast to move across the area later in the weekend. Keeping
conditions mainly dry for now, but may eventually have to add some
PoPs as moisture increases ahead of approaching, but weakening
frontal boundary. Highs mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s and
some 60s near the coast.
 12/08/2020 11:40 PM
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ww

Posts: 15182
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Sebastian Inlet reporting water temps 50-60. Presumably chilled water coming out of the Indian River.
 12/09/2020 05:35 AM
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TATTOO74

Posts: 2320
Joined Forum: 10/26/2005

Frost in Palm Bay this am. Coworkers actually had to scrape their windshield!
 12/09/2020 10:18 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

39F reported in Melbourne over night.

 12/09/2020 01:50 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49363
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Today on the North side of a house, a big dead cuban tree frog with obvious freeze burns. Lizards moving slow. They got shocked last night!
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