long range models spin this up quickly and moving into North Florida/Georgia. Lets see if the models get this one right.


Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

NWS Melb Wx Discussion:

Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds
winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu
with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it
ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon
and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up
to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps
up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach
14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary
Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and
perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week
should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated
lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local
waters as moisture values increase.

Damn. Well some wind chop sounds good to me. I have the twinnie for that.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Wind-Chop-R-Us

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm
529 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

TODAY
East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

TUESDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.

WEDNESDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet.

THURSDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet.

FRIDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.

Its a rollicking chop slop. Im in.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Northeast Floridians (as in Hanna Park, Atlantic Beach) are masters of wind mess.

The Gulf disturbance looks likely to yield lots of much-needed rain for southern Texas and northern Mexico. NHC rain

NWS Melbourne has a purple stripe on the coast for high surf through Thursday

WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, numerous, life-threatening rip currents.

Edited: 06/19/2024 at 01:37 AM by ww

Thursday-Friday...A trough, which NHC continues to monitor,
maintaining a 20% chance of tropical formation as of the latest
update, will approach the Southeast US coast on Thursday, then
move onshore into Friday. Models continue to disagree on the exact
location and timing of this feature moving onshore. However, they
generally agree that it will be somewhere over north
Florida/southern Georgia. Fortunately, models continue to support
little in the way of development, keeping the feature as an open
wave. Regardless of the final outcome, the local area is forecast
to have another day of breezy onshore flow Thursday, before winds
subside and back southeasterly on Friday. Showers and a few storms
are forecast to continue through the period, with PoPs 40-60%
Thursday and around 50% on Friday. While some areas will see
multiple rounds of activity, overall rainfall totals are forecast
to remain under 1".

Had a blast this morning. Chunky slabs in the head high range all morning. The kind of day that feels like a buffet table of peaks, where everyone gets to surf and you don't even have to look to your left or right to see if someone else is dropping in. Spread out and fun.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Checking the weather models this Thur afternoon and it looks like a circulation will happen just off Canaveral overnight then move North up into Georgia as a weak tropical depression. Maybe a storm. Who knows. Gulf stream and all that jazz. Hopefully we see offshore winds (not forecasted at this time) as the center of the moves North.

Latest from NHC:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):

A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of
the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
enroute to investigate this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Friday Dawn. West at 6mph at Patrick

I saw the signature of the tropical wave on the wind satellite last night so set my alarm for 6am.
It paid off! Were some occasional head high bombs with west wind and nobody out on Jupiter Island.

Bucc was glassy and sizeable 4-5 but I could never find an open face. Didn't see too many others either. Fun for June though.

I surfed with 3rd. It got better throughout the morning. Wind was turning onshore around 10:30. What a morning. I have surfed the last four days and the Universe saved the best for last.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Nice score. I love it down there. My sister use to live in Jupiter Island Colony 90s. Thus, I surfed down there when I could with a place to stay!

Cocoa Beach was chest high and clean, with long open lefts. I had to drive to Orlando for work.

Can we please have waves for more than six hours at a time?

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I was right.

Lol Cole, yeah i missed it too today, friggydiggy, hence my handle...sigh. I guess it was my turn Glad others scored though yeah love those occaisional June surprises