The good old "Mr Toad's Wild Ride" was the best; it was always a good place to burn one.

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Dora Hates You

From NHC this Tuesday morning: FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. That's about 30 miles due east of Vero, 1:AM Thurs morning. Hope they're not under calling this one. Not much lead time.

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Is anyone else disturbed by the current lack of accuracy when forecasting these things? Is it time to bring back witch doctors and medicine men? Or perhaps we should pay closer attention to the color of the caterpillars and other critters?

Actually, there was a flock of Frigates over Cocoa Beach yesterday. I found that a little disturbing.

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I was right.

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:53 AM by Cole

JUST RELY ON YOUR APPS COLE, you'll be fine

Hurricane forecasts are still not as good as they might be. The humans at NHC almost always out-perform the models they use. That said, forecasts have improved quite a lot. Including meaningful storm surge forecasts.

Yes Cole, this guy always seemed to do a good job, , , , ,:



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Dora Hates You

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 06:31 AM by dingpatch

Hmmmmmm, , , , , it now seems that some models have shifted much further South, , , , ,??!!

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Dora Hates You

Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 07:36 AM by Surfconch1

There is significant erosion north of the cape on some of the beaches from Ian. Quite a few homes there are on the brink of being swallowed by the ocean. I guess that is why.

If you see Jim Cantore.... You are at ground zero.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

It's not the intensity, but the size of the fetch combined with the NE'er with the "cold" front. Hope this thing doesnt keep shifting north... it'll TKO Volusia, and alot of people in downtown St. Aug...

Jim Cantore was at Publix yesterday in Satellite

Waxing up his stick, and prepping his helmet for a RCs session? or just getting a sub?

Waxing his "shtick" for sure...

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 08:19 AM by tom

There is also a full moon, so higher tide than normal.





Edited: 11/08/2022 at 09:37 AM by waterrat

WE ARE ....TOAST.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

I already mentioned that

Charcoals.... Lighter.... Hooch... Soda.... We R readys.... Pawpaw????...how was the WARMER WATER???? Shannon showed me some pics..

I paddled out at Sat Beach this afternoon, it was pretty bonkers. Was mid tide and already the waves were hitting the cliff Ian left from the erosion. I balked on the 1st 4-5 waves, caught about a 12 footer and was promptly annihilated. I paddled in after that, my current short board can't handle waves like that.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

Storm surge predictions are 5 ft or under, but extend along a very long stretch of coast. Nicole doesn't have very high winds, but it's an enormously large storm with a big wind field. In 2004, hurricane Frances, also a cat 1, caused serious flooding in Indian River Co. Water was creeping across lawns across from Riverside Park. Quite a lot of flooding at John's Island, a huge gated community dating to the 1970s (where a lot of teardowns with elevation raising have been going on, typical around the county). I'm surprised at the lack of evacuation orders.