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Topic Title: Invest 98L
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Created On: 11/06/2022 08:44 AM
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 11/08/2022 05:40 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 18178
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The good old "Mr Toad's Wild Ride" was the best; it was always a good place to burn one.

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 11/08/2022 05:44 AM
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tom

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From NHC this Tuesday morning: FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. That's about 30 miles due east of Vero, 1:AM Thurs morning. Hope they're not under calling this one. Not much lead time.

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 11/08/2022 05:49 AM
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Cole

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Is anyone else disturbed by the current lack of accuracy when forecasting these things? Is it time to bring back witch doctors and medicine men? Or perhaps we should pay closer attention to the color of the caterpillars and other critters?

Actually, there was a flock of Frigates over Cocoa Beach yesterday. I found that a little disturbing.

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I was right.

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:53 AM by Cole
 11/08/2022 05:57 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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JUST RELY ON YOUR APPS COLE, you'll be fine
 11/08/2022 06:08 AM
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ww

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Hurricane forecasts are still not as good as they might be. The humans at NHC almost always out-perform the models they use. That said, forecasts have improved quite a lot. Including meaningful storm surge forecasts.
 11/08/2022 06:31 AM
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dingpatch

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Yes Cole, this guy always seemed to do a good job, , , , ,:



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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 06:31 AM by dingpatch
 11/08/2022 06:43 AM
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dingpatch

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Hmmmmmm, , , , , it now seems that some models have shifted much further South, , , , ,??!!

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 11/08/2022 07:31 AM
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Surfconch1

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Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 07:36 AM by Surfconch1
 11/08/2022 07:52 AM
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RiddleMe

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There is significant erosion north of the cape on some of the beaches from Ian. Quite a few homes there are on the brink of being swallowed by the ocean. I guess that is why.
 11/08/2022 07:52 AM
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scostuart

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Originally posted by: Cole Is anyone else disturbed by the current lack of accuracy when forecasting these things? Is it time to bring back witch doctors and medicine men? Or perhaps we should pay closer attention to the color of the caterpillars and other critters? Actually, there was a flock of Frigates over Cocoa Beach yesterday. I found that a little disturbing.
If you see Jim Cantore.... You are at ground zero.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 11/08/2022 07:53 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: Surfconch1 Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?
It's not the intensity, but the size of the fetch combined with the NE'er with the "cold" front. Hope this thing doesnt keep shifting north... it'll TKO Volusia, and alot of people in downtown St. Aug...
 11/08/2022 07:56 AM
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RiddleMe

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Jim Cantore was at Publix yesterday in Satellite
 11/08/2022 07:58 AM
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Plan B

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Waxing up his stick, and prepping his helmet for a RCs session? or just getting a sub?
 11/08/2022 08:18 AM
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tom

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Waxing his "shtick" for sure...

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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 08:19 AM by tom
 11/08/2022 09:35 AM
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waterrat

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There is also a full moon, so higher tide than normal.

Originally posted by: Surfconch1

Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?




Edited: 11/08/2022 at 09:37 AM by waterrat
 11/08/2022 11:00 AM
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scostuart

Posts: 255
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Originally posted by: RiddleMe Jim Cantore was at Publix yesterday in Satellite
WE ARE ....TOAST.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 11/08/2022 11:58 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: waterrat There is also a full moon, so higher tide than normal.
I already mentioned that
 11/08/2022 03:56 PM
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onebuck

Posts: 2811
Joined Forum: 01/27/2008

Charcoals.... Lighter.... Hooch... Soda.... We R readys.... Pawpaw????...how was the WARMER WATER???? Shannon showed me some pics..
 11/08/2022 05:10 PM
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LaJune

Posts: 60
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I paddled out at Sat Beach this afternoon, it was pretty bonkers. Was mid tide and already the waves were hitting the cliff Ian left from the erosion. I balked on the 1st 4-5 waves, caught about a 12 footer and was promptly annihilated. I paddled in after that, my current short board can't handle waves like that.

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Heavy is sign of reliability
 11/08/2022 05:21 PM
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ww

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Storm surge predictions are 5 ft or under, but extend along a very long stretch of coast. Nicole doesn't have very high winds, but it's an enormously large storm with a big wind field. In 2004, hurricane Frances, also a cat 1, caused serious flooding in Indian River Co. Water was creeping across lawns across from Riverside Park. Quite a lot of flooding at John's Island, a huge gated community dating to the 1970s (where a lot of teardowns with elevation raising have been going on, typical around the county). I'm surprised at the lack of evacuation orders.
FORUMS : Surfing : Invest 98L

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