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Topic Title: Invest 98L
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Created On: 11/06/2022 08:44 AM
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 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/06/2022 08:44 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/06/2022 08:46 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Central Floridave - 11/06/2022 08:51 AM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/06/2022 10:33 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/06/2022 05:19 PM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/06/2022 05:35 PM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/07/2022 04:35 AM  
 Invest 98L   - tom - 11/07/2022 02:21 AM  
 Invest 98L   - StirfryMcflurry - 11/07/2022 10:11 PM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/08/2022 12:54 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/08/2022 05:20 AM  
 Invest 98L   - tom - 11/08/2022 05:24 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/08/2022 05:30 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/08/2022 05:34 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/08/2022 05:40 AM  
 Invest 98L   - tom - 11/08/2022 05:44 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/08/2022 05:49 AM  
 Invest 98L   - StirfryMcflurry - 11/08/2022 05:57 AM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/08/2022 06:08 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/08/2022 06:31 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/08/2022 06:43 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Surfconch1 - 11/08/2022 07:31 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Plan B - 11/08/2022 07:53 AM  
 Invest 98L   - waterrat - 11/08/2022 09:35 AM  
 Invest 98L   - StirfryMcflurry - 11/08/2022 11:58 AM  
 Invest 98L   - onebuck - 11/08/2022 03:56 PM  
 Invest 98L   - LaJune - 11/08/2022 05:10 PM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/08/2022 05:21 PM  
 Invest 98L   - tom - 11/09/2022 02:36 AM  
 Invest 98L   - ww - 11/09/2022 04:20 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Plan B - 11/09/2022 04:32 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/09/2022 07:35 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/09/2022 07:41 AM  
 Invest 98L   - StirfryMcflurry - 11/09/2022 07:48 AM  
 Invest 98L   - grdsurf - 11/09/2022 10:02 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/11/2022 07:06 AM  
 Invest 98L   - scostuart - 11/08/2022 07:52 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Central Floridave - 11/07/2022 06:13 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Central Floridave - 11/07/2022 07:03 AM  
 Invest 98L   - SurferMic - 11/07/2022 07:29 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/07/2022 10:54 AM  
 Invest 98L   - dingpatch - 11/07/2022 01:52 PM  
 Invest 98L   - Cole - 11/07/2022 08:53 PM  
 Invest 98L   - RiddleMe - 11/08/2022 07:52 AM  
 Invest 98L   - RiddleMe - 11/08/2022 07:56 AM  
 Invest 98L   - Plan B - 11/08/2022 07:58 AM  
 Invest 98L   - tom - 11/08/2022 08:18 AM  
 Invest 98L   - scostuart - 11/08/2022 11:00 AM  
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 11/06/2022 08:44 AM
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dingpatch

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 11/06/2022 08:46 AM
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dingpatch

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 11/06/2022 08:51 AM
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Central Floridave

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We need the rain.
 11/06/2022 10:33 AM
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ww

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    Surfline's predicting wave heights up to 30' with lots of wind.


Edited: 11/06/2022 at 10:52 AM by ww
 11/06/2022 05:19 PM
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dingpatch

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This could be a "final straw" for Flagler and Volusia beaches.
, much less for Brevard, , , , , ,

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 11/06/2022 05:35 PM
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ww

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Some beach nourishment in Indian River has been dropped indefinitely for lack of property owner consent. The National Weather Service office in Melbourne added serious hazardous weather comments this evening. As in "prepare for a moderate to strong tropical storm."
 11/07/2022 04:35 AM
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Cole

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Nicole. Near Cat 1 and heading to or near Central Florida?

Tom, I didn't refresh before typing what I typed. We have strange similarities. lol

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Edited: 11/07/2022 at 04:41 AM by Cole
 11/07/2022 02:21 AM
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tom

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Nicole. November, only to the N storm, and looking at a hit. Weird.

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 11/07/2022 10:11 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Eclipse - check. Election - check. Full moon - check. King tide - check. The fix is in. Fasten down what's left of Flagler pier. I don' think it's gonna make it thru this one..
 11/08/2022 12:54 AM
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ww

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NHC Tues. 4 am:
    2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.
    3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.


Edited: 11/08/2022 at 02:00 AM by ww
 11/08/2022 05:20 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
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I have Government notifications shut off on my phone: I only need to know when it is time to Lock and Load.

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 11/08/2022 05:24 AM
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tom

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Spaghetti models are showing a pretty good jog to the north from yesterday. Running right over us. NHC doesn't seem to have caught up yet. Bleah.

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 11/08/2022 05:30 AM
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dingpatch

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Jacksonville always needs a good flushing, , , , ,

And yes, the NHC track looks to be the last one "to the South"; with all the others to the North of the NHC.

The remains of the Flagler Pier are Toast.

What kind of a mess would we have if the Cocoa Beach Pier got "hit"? As I remember, it can only be "repaired" and not "rebuilt"; it is too close to the Port and, as such, it is a "hazard to navigation".

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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:36 AM by dingpatch
 11/08/2022 05:34 AM
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Cole

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Europe models have it north of us and they were spot on for the last bunghole that came through. More slice would be nice.

Mr Toad's Wild Ride at the 120 right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:37 AM by Cole
 11/08/2022 05:40 AM
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dingpatch

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The good old "Mr Toad's Wild Ride" was the best; it was always a good place to burn one.

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 11/08/2022 05:44 AM
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tom

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From NHC this Tuesday morning: FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. That's about 30 miles due east of Vero, 1:AM Thurs morning. Hope they're not under calling this one. Not much lead time.

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 11/08/2022 05:49 AM
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Cole

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Is anyone else disturbed by the current lack of accuracy when forecasting these things? Is it time to bring back witch doctors and medicine men? Or perhaps we should pay closer attention to the color of the caterpillars and other critters?

Actually, there was a flock of Frigates over Cocoa Beach yesterday. I found that a little disturbing.

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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:53 AM by Cole
 11/08/2022 05:57 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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JUST RELY ON YOUR APPS COLE, you'll be fine
 11/08/2022 06:08 AM
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ww

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Hurricane forecasts are still not as good as they might be. The humans at NHC almost always out-perform the models they use. That said, forecasts have improved quite a lot. Including meaningful storm surge forecasts.
 11/08/2022 06:31 AM
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dingpatch

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Yes Cole, this guy always seemed to do a good job, , , , ,:



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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 06:31 AM by dingpatch
 11/08/2022 06:43 AM
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dingpatch

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Hmmmmmm, , , , , it now seems that some models have shifted much further South, , , , ,??!!

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 11/08/2022 07:31 AM
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Surfconch1

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Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?

Edited: 11/08/2022 at 07:36 AM by Surfconch1
 11/08/2022 07:53 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: Surfconch1 Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?
It's not the intensity, but the size of the fetch combined with the NE'er with the "cold" front. Hope this thing doesnt keep shifting north... it'll TKO Volusia, and alot of people in downtown St. Aug...
 11/08/2022 09:35 AM
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waterrat

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There is also a full moon, so higher tide than normal.

Originally posted by: Surfconch1

Why are people so worried about the storm surge on this one? It's barely a Cat1. We've had many come to us. Is there something special going on or are they gunshy after Ian on the west coast? Maybe because it's coming straight east to wast?




Edited: 11/08/2022 at 09:37 AM by waterrat
 11/08/2022 11:58 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: waterrat There is also a full moon, so higher tide than normal.
I already mentioned that
 11/08/2022 03:56 PM
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onebuck

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Charcoals.... Lighter.... Hooch... Soda.... We R readys.... Pawpaw????...how was the WARMER WATER???? Shannon showed me some pics..
 11/08/2022 05:10 PM
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LaJune

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I paddled out at Sat Beach this afternoon, it was pretty bonkers. Was mid tide and already the waves were hitting the cliff Ian left from the erosion. I balked on the 1st 4-5 waves, caught about a 12 footer and was promptly annihilated. I paddled in after that, my current short board can't handle waves like that.

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 11/08/2022 05:21 PM
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ww

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Storm surge predictions are 5 ft or under, but extend along a very long stretch of coast. Nicole doesn't have very high winds, but it's an enormously large storm with a big wind field. In 2004, hurricane Frances, also a cat 1, caused serious flooding in Indian River Co. Water was creeping across lawns across from Riverside Park. Quite a lot of flooding at John's Island, a huge gated community dating to the 1970s (where a lot of teardowns with elevation raising have been going on, typical around the county). I'm surprised at the lack of evacuation orders.
 11/09/2022 02:36 AM
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tom

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Brevard has an evacuation recommendation, Zone A. Models have center hitting south again, Ft Laud, still coming in as a weak Cat 1. Still thinking about "rapid intensification", not good at forecasting that.

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 11/09/2022 04:20 AM
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ww

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National Hurricane Center is giving Indian River (and more so, Brevard) fairly low probabilities of hurricane-force winds. Peak winds for Ft Pierce (likely heavier hit) show up on the European model 6-10 pm (check the Windy website). The National Hurricane Center has the European model very close to their track line.
 11/09/2022 04:32 AM
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Plan B

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Flooding's the real concern with this storm... lots of water moving around: https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-72.68,33.14,1492live winds

Edited: 11/09/2022 at 04:33 AM by Plan B
 11/09/2022 07:35 AM
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Cole

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We don't get much ten foot swell action, so our coast line isn't used to it. Now factor multiple days in a row and we might just end up with a problem. And as said above, the full moon doesn't help either, unless you are pro erosion.

Satellite's dirt sand? I'm thinking we can kiss that goodbye.

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Edited: 11/09/2022 at 07:36 AM by Cole
 11/09/2022 07:41 AM
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Cole

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Update: Our coast isn't used to 20 foot swells. The 20 miler is at 20 feet. The outside 120 is at 26 feet. Toss in a bit of long-shore current and our beaches are going to get the Hassan CHOP!

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 11/09/2022 07:48 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Flagler pier watch it , live. edit - still there

Edited: 11/10/2022 at 01:30 AM by StirfryMcflurry
 11/09/2022 10:02 AM
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grdsurf

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So the $65,000 question is....how jacked up is the bottom going to be after this event? It hadn't yet fully recovered from the Ian induced "Trough Of Death" or TOD. The analog event in recent history would be Irma's bottom destruction which was noticeably worst than Ian. It seems that the S/SE current is more damaging than N/NE current. Of course the duration and intensity combined with direction ultimately determine the post event near shore bathymetry. Given the current 20ft buoy I'm thinking we could be stuck with a "show off" shore break setup for awhile, hope I'm wrong. Sometimes this amount of energy can create temporary channel setups that make a "X marks the spot" inside sandbar where you'll get a perfect left or right breaking into the channel every time. I've had the pleasure of scoring some of these rare occurrences over the years here on the Space Coast. I've also heard of a couple great setups just down the road but for some reason I never got word until after the magic was gone, hmm wonder why:> So....after this mess passes by maybe a little exploration would yield a cool setup ....we'll see.

Edited: 11/09/2022 at 10:04 AM by grdsurf
 11/11/2022 07:06 AM
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Cole

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I checked a few spots in my local area, and there is promise. A few of the larger lumpy sets reformed into some rip-able walls. I walked the beach at RC's yesterday and the set waves weren't even making it through the new and improved TOD.

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 11/08/2022 07:52 AM
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scostuart

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Originally posted by: Cole Is anyone else disturbed by the current lack of accuracy when forecasting these things? Is it time to bring back witch doctors and medicine men? Or perhaps we should pay closer attention to the color of the caterpillars and other critters? Actually, there was a flock of Frigates over Cocoa Beach yesterday. I found that a little disturbing.
If you see Jim Cantore.... You are at ground zero.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 11/07/2022 06:13 AM
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Central Floridave

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Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.
 11/07/2022 07:03 AM
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Central Floridave

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Cold front after Nicole!

then a cool-down for Sun/Mon as maxes struggle to
the U60s to near 70 along/north if I-4, then L-M70s southward,
except U70s for Martin County. Mins generally in the 60s Fri night
and in the 50s Sat night thru Mon night, except barrier islands may
remain in the L-M60s. It may be interesting to see if any normally
cooler areas along/north of I-4 realize U40s for lows.
 11/07/2022 07:29 AM
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SurferMic

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WEDNESDAY Tropical storm conditions possible. North winds 35 to 40 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 16 to 19 feet with occasional seas to 25 feet........Oh Yeah! Walballyhoo at 25 feet ...should be a blast! Sebby Inlet has been like a good Wabally the least few days....READY for the real deal.
 11/07/2022 10:54 AM
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dingpatch

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the 2:00 forecasts it to become a hurricane Wednesday night.



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 11/07/2022 01:52 PM
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dingpatch

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Latest model track plot from Clark Evans. About half of the models are now "on us" or to the North. This may end up skirting us and scraping Volusia and Flagler CLEAN.



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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 05:10 AM by dingpatch
 11/07/2022 08:53 PM
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Cole

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I just got a coastal flood warning on my phone. Shall we stick with the names of the collapsed condos for our new reef breaks or come up with something more original?

This thing is going to carve away a serious amount of sand.

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 11/08/2022 07:52 AM
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RiddleMe

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There is significant erosion north of the cape on some of the beaches from Ian. Quite a few homes there are on the brink of being swallowed by the ocean. I guess that is why.
 11/08/2022 07:56 AM
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RiddleMe

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Jim Cantore was at Publix yesterday in Satellite
 11/08/2022 07:58 AM
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Plan B

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Waxing up his stick, and prepping his helmet for a RCs session? or just getting a sub?
 11/08/2022 08:18 AM
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tom

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Waxing his "shtick" for sure...

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Edited: 11/08/2022 at 08:19 AM by tom
 11/08/2022 11:00 AM
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scostuart

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Originally posted by: RiddleMe Jim Cantore was at Publix yesterday in Satellite
WE ARE ....TOAST.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

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