Associated Press

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems

STEVE PEOPLES and AARON KESSLER
Mon, June 27, 2022, 12:08 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) - A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party's gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country - Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns - in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced - and dangerous for Democrats - than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats' support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party's inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.

"It's more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right," said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor whose transition away from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago when he registered as a libertarian.

The AP examined nearly 1.7 million voters who had likely switched affiliations across 42 states for which there is data over the last 12 months, according to L2, a political data firm. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.

But over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

The broad migration of more than 1 million voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and dozens of governorships. Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court's decision on Friday to overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.

Still, the details about party switchers present a dire warning for Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects shaping the political landscape this fall.

Roughly four months before Election Day, Democrats have no clear strategy to address Biden's weak popularity and voters' overwhelming fear that the country is headed in the wrong direction with their party in charge. And while Republicans have offered few policy solutions of their own, the GOP has been working effectively to capitalize on the Democrats' shortcomings.

Republicans benefited last year as suburban parents grew increasingly frustrated by prolonged pandemic-related schools closures. And as inflation intensified more recently, the Republican National Committee has been hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban areas across swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to link the Biden administration to record-high gas prices. The GOP has also linked the Democratic president to an ongoing baby formula shortage.

"Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that's why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP. She predicted that "American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come" because of "Biden's gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime."

The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in voters switching to the GOP.

And while Republican officials are quick to take credit for the shift, the phenomenon gained momentum shortly after Trump left the White House. Still, the specific reason or reasons for the shift remain unclear.

At least some of the newly registered Republicans are actually Democrats who crossed over to vote against Trump-backed candidates in GOP primaries. Such voters are likely to vote Democratic again this November.

But the scope and breadth of the party switching suggests something much bigger at play.

Over the last year, nearly every state - even those without high-profile Republican primaries - moved in the same direction as voters by the thousand became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held off-year elections in 2021, saw Democrats notably trending up over the last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in last fall's statewide elections.

In Iowa, Democrats used to hold the advantage in party changers by a 2-to-1 margin. That's flipped over the last year, with Republicans ahead by a similar amount. The same dramatic shift is playing out in Ohio.

In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers.

The current advantage for Republicans among party changers is playing out with particular ferocity in the nation's suburbs.

The AP found that the Republican advantage was larger in suburban "fringe" counties, based on classifications from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, compared to smaller towns and counties. Republicans boosted their share of party changers in 168 of 235 suburban counties AP examined - 72 percent - over the last year, compared with the last years of the Trump era.

These included suburban counties across Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Washington state.

Republicans also gained ground in further-out suburban counties, which the CDC lumps in with medium-size cities and calls "medium metro" - more than 62 percent of such counties, 164 in all, saw Republican growth. They range from the suburban counties north of Denver, like Larimer, to Los Angeles-area ones like Ventura and Santa Barbara in California.

The Republican advantage was nearly universal, but it was stronger in some places than others.

For example, in Lorain County, Ohio, just outside Cleveland, nearly every party switcher over the last year has gone Republican. That's even as Democrats captured three-quarters of those changing parties in the same county during end of the Trump era.

Some conservative leaders worry that the GOP's suburban gains will be limited if Republicans don't do a better job explaining to suburban voters what they stand for - instead of what they stand against.

Emily Seidel, who leads the Koch-backed grassroots organization Americans for Prosperity, said her network is seeing first-hand that suburban voters are distancing themselves from Democrats who represent "extreme policy positions."

"But that doesn't mean that they're ready to vote against those lawmakers either. Frankly, they're skeptical of both options that they have," Seidel said. "The lesson here: Candidates have to make their case, they have to give voters something to be for, not just something to be against."

Back in Larimer County, Colorado, 39-year-old homemaker Jessica Kroells says she can no longer vote for Democrats, despite being a reliable Democratic voter up until 2016.

There was not a single "aha moment" that convinced her to switch, but by 2020, she said the Democratic Party had "left me behind."

"The party itself in no longer Democrat, it's progressive socialism," she said, specifically condemning Biden's plan to eliminate billions of dollars in student debt.

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Dora Hates You

I switch every so often to vote in their primary, but then switch back to NPA.



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“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

Thanks dingpatch for posting this article that confirms what I already believed.

Math above says 370k net gain for R's...

Way it's written suggests a 1 mil 'gain'? huh?

Agree that the right has successfully spun many issues in their favor - def successful mastered the art of 'one liner' 'branding'..

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There are NO white people at all in the Bible... take all the time you need with that...
Please stop feeding the trolls - they will go away if you do...

This might have something to do with it:

Liz Cheney to WY Dems: Switch Parties So You Can Vote for Me in the Primary

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GOP:

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project

Maybe a lil bit, 1 state vs the 43 states mentioned.

Edited: 06/27/2022 at 06:20 AM by surfrc

Maybe you can have someone explain the word "extrapolation" to you, and then maybe you can understand how that works with the math over the entire US.

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GOP:

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project

Zip, right over his head.





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I was right.

Nothing zipped over my head. Now your just being a dick.
Why would a person change parties to vote for Cheney if they don't live in Wyoming?
Extrapolate that.

That's roughly 8,500 per state. I wouldn't stop the presses just yet.

The real issue is below.

Overall in 2021, an average of 29% of Americans identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Roughly equal proportions of independents leaned to the Democratic Party (17%) and to the Republican Party (16%).

http://news.gallup.com/poll/38...eatly-during-2021.aspx

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I was right.

I wish Independents would pick Independent candidates. A hand full of them would rule the roost.

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I was right.

1,000,000 people/43 states=23,256 people per state.

Regarding your 2021 data, much has changed in 2022.

Why do I have to explain absolutely everything to Republicans?

According to the article there are 1 million people who switched Republican. On the flip, there are 630,000 who turned Democrat. That leaves an additional 370,000 Republicans.

For fuck sake.

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I was right.

You didn't need to explain it, you said read the article, I did, and now see what surfsail said above makes sense.

Are you sure about that? I have my doubts.

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I was right.

Don't mind cOle he's a little slow..

Did you notice that he still hasn't changed the post that makes him look like a dumb-ass? lol



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I was right.

That triggered liberal dem rage is showing cole, calm down.

Yes, it is a bit maddening, being so simple and all. It's Kinda like trying to train a dog that has a hearing problem.



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I was right.

"It's Kinda like trying to train a dog that has a hearing problem."
Or teaching algebra to a pig.
Great t-shirt: "I could explain it to you....but I can't understand it for you"
The dumbing down of america.......next stop Idiocracy Station
Laughably stupid.....willfully ignorant

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It's a democratic hoax

You are the ignorant ditch digging loser, so go fuck yer self.

Try to explain astrophysics to a sheep
mmmmmmmmBAAHHAAAHHHHAAAH.....my head huuuurts
Just keep an orange, wagging wooly tail in your face, lambchoprc, things will be juuuust fine

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It's a democratic hoax

Go dig a ditch or wash the dishes, what ever it is you do loser.

Actually it is building and operating networked audiovisual systems for some of the biggest companies in the world.
When not building and repairing composite watersports equipment.
When are you and the other alias, lizardkiller, gonna rough up the crowds in 2 foot 2nd light, mucho macho goobie doo?
weeeeee-ak

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It's a democratic hoax

I'm more concerned about the typ low dem turnout for midterms than anything else.

That being said I wouldn't poo poo quite a few current issues that are happening that may help the dems; def RvW, Jan 6th hearings, and gun control (what was 'passed' don't really mean shit IMO - gun 'freedoms' increased - a net problem), and still lingering anti qrump sentiment being a few..

But on the flip side; gas prices and inflation are nothing the dems should be poo pooing either..

I really don't see Joe vs qrumo popularity as an issue.. Joe wins that one regardkless - IMO..

Don't really see a 'slam dunk' on either side..

I'm not a betting man and I'm don't bet unless it's a sure thing..

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There are NO white people at all in the Bible... take all the time you need with that...
Please stop feeding the trolls - they will go away if you do...

No surprise. Voter registration is public record. It would be downright embarrassing for word to get out that someone is a dem.

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I :heart; Q

Could you please show your math, your comment is in direct conflict to the title: More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems.

Read the article.

In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.



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I was right.

I think switching is a good idea if you live in a place where the Dem party is either infiltrated and compromised or just completely incompetent like FLA.



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“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

It doesn't matter if they're the majority or not. When was the last time a Repug was ELECTED to the highest office with the popular vote? Surely wasn't the orange turd. Nor the coke sniffing son of Satan.

Thanks slimy. Joe beat their orange bitch by 7 million votes and 70 electoral votes. Even if you look at a million people going here or there that's only 1 in every 325 Americans.

There is going to be a much more monumental shift in the voting pattern of women which isn't accounted for in the AP article.

Edited: 06/27/2022 at 08:52 AM by Greensleeves

Good luck with that. Inflation is the number one issue, not abortion with the majority of the voters.

Most people don't give much of a damn about abortion. Those that are fanatical about it, are already dems. Those that are fanatical against it are already Republican. They will come out in force as well and will cancel out the baby killer vote. Abortion will only have a minor effect on the mid-terms.

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I :heart; Q

I love how these guys are underestimating the repercussions of the radical christian court denying women the right to control their own bodies.



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“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

You'll find out in November how much we were underestimating the issue.

The effects will be much more far reaching than that. The war has not ended, it's just begun.


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“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

If you think the war is going to help Biden, you're wrong.

If you knew anything about me you'd know that I have no interest in Biden or the Democratic Party at large.

I'm a future expat just sipping my drink and watching the show.

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“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

I don't believe any of that shit.

You probably know right now that your cause is white, male and failed. Y'all suck you know that right?