NHC expects the Caribbean disturbance to develop; it's likely to cross Hispaniola then head NE.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

virtual buoys balloons up for next week!

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Corrected Tropical Storm Warning section to add Turks and Caicos

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

Historic, in the worst way.

Virginia and outer banks are having a miserable coastal storm today. Surfline's cameras at Jennette's Pier are clean and showing the surf mess.

Brevard seems set for an onshore wind surf bump tomorrow afternoon


-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WILL SOON EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING
RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

The storm looked like a saw blade just before it struck land.

-------------------------
I was right.

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of
Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7
West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and
north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti
and Jamaica later this week.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface
observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined
center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical
cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the
system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite
imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center
near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm
Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide
a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure.

The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several
days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has
likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be
280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn
to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely
take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica
by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly
with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the
northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall
or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An
examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites
suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving
into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the
week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies
between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct
consensus aid, HCCA.

Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the
Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be
moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the
next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening
trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the
future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is
quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm
is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and
Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

NHC Melissa

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

From FLHurricane.com: "50 MPH Tropical Storm (Current state): Close to 0% 60-70 MPH mid/high-end Tropical Storm: 1% Cat 1 Hurricane: 3% Cat 2 Hurricane: 5% Cat 3 Hurricane: 14% 130-140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane: 17% 150-155 MPH High-End Cat 4: 19% 160-170 MPH Cat 5: 20% 175-200 MPH Cat 5: 19% Over 200 MPH Cat 5: 2%" 41% chance of Cat5?! 2% chance over 200!? No clue where this gonna go but will be bad.

-------------------------
Heavy is sign of reliability

Oh no, more surf incoming.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

NHC having a difficult time forecasting the track:

The tropical storm has slowed down to a crawl this morning, with the
estimated motion at 300/2 kt. The track forecast remains challenging
today, and strongly related to the storm's structure in the
short-term. For the next 12-24 hours, Melissa is forecast to move
very slowly to the northwest as it attempts to move into a weakness
produced by an broad upper-level trough centered over the Bahamas.
Whether or not it turns more rightward into this weakness is related
to the vertical depth the various model guidance is depicting. The
06z GFS run, which is the model that has been on the right side of
the guidance envelope for days, shows a more vertically coherent
system over the next 24-48 hours, and causes Melissa to abruptly
turn northeastward over the next 48 hours. While this appears to be
an outlier solution, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) also
shows this northeastward motion, and a significant fraction of its
ensemble members show the Melissa making landfall on the Island of
Hispaniola. However, the remainder of the track guidance, including
the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggest that Melissa will remain
misaligned and move more slowly north-northwest over the next couple
of days. The NHC track solution slightly favors the latter
scenarios, lying just east of the ECMWF mean, out of respect of the
reliable GDMI aid. After about 60 h, mid-level ridging begins to
build back in to the north, and most of the guidance responds by
showing a sharp turn westward, albeit still at a snail's pace. The
overall track guidance, GFS and GDMI excluded, has shifted left this
cycle beyond 72 h, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction,
but not as far south and west as the HAFS-A/B regional models. It
goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast.

96H 26/1800Z 16.2N 76.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Meteorologist Michael Lowry's daily email notes that "Unfortunately for the central Caribbean, it may not be until Tuesday to Thursday of next week that Melissa finally finds an escape route as a cold front dives in from the west and accelerates it northeastward."

He also notes this:

"With the advent of high-resolution hurricane models and improvements in hurricane intensity guidance, the National Hurricane Center has only recently begun explicitly forecasting dangerous episodes of rapid intensification - defined as at least a 35 mph increase in maximum sustained winds within 24 hours.

Usually these bold rapid intensification forecasts are reserved for shorter lead times - typically about a day or two in advance - but on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center explicitly forecast rapid intensification three to four days out for the first time, according to statistics compiled by meteorologist Tomer Burg."

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

I am astounded at how bad the forecast track is for Jamaica.

-------------------------
Heavy is sign of reliability

At Hatteras now. Swell tuesday, along with 25mph NE wind. Sigh.

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Jamaica looks to get enormous rainfall plus major-hurricane wind. Melissa looks fairly likely to take a NE track out of eastern Cuba/western Haiti.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

super typhoon!

60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH

5 am Sat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.3N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.8N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.8N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH...S COAST OF JAMAICA
96H 29/0600Z 20.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
120H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER

The Saturday-Sunday onshore wind with wind waves from a front got the attention of the National Weather Service, high surf advisory toward the south, moving north Saturday afternoon.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Edited: 10/25/2025 at 06:10 AM by Wavewatcher

On the side, is weather.gov (National Weather Service) offline?

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Victory at sea. Had fun up against the jetty at a secret inlet.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

5 pm Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Edited: 10/26/2025 at 02:32 PM by Wavewatcher

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES