Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form tonight or on Sunday
along a frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United
States. Additional slow development could occur through Monday as
the system moves slowly east-northeastward. After that time,
environmental conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Looks like NE swell coming. Monday and all week.

east-northeastward

Southeast for a day or two would be preferable.

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I was right.

Looks to be small, but virtual buoy showing 3 feet 9 or 10 seconds from the NE for Monday.

Surf-Forecast suggests a bump in wave energy on Monday, mostly south of Brevard, perhaps Martin Co south.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm
939 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

THIS AFTERNOON
Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave Detail: East 2 feet at 9 seconds and south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

TONIGHT
South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

MONDAY
South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

TUESDAY
South winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Looking at the long range, there is a blip in the ITCZ. Possible bigger surf coming. However, long range is the long range...iffy. But, I'm happy seeing something-something.

I just up'd my lap count today and with a baby swell coming this week it will be good to work out the kinks. Maybe I need to take my cold water wax off.

My good friend is currently in Costa Rica. Haven't heard from him in a couple days. Probably scoring.

Meanwhile back in Florida...stay in shape and be ready. Our favorite time of year is upcoming!

Just to see how accurate or not it is I'll check back on the 14th.

Sun Aug 3rd. Virtual buoy showing 7 feet and 13 seconds for Aug 14th. East swell angle.

Knock on wood.

The storm is moving away from us, but it looks like there is a boundary between it and high pressure farther to the north. The wind fetch between the two is 1,000 miles long, and it's pointing straight at Florida.

The East Hatteras buoy has winds gusting from the NNE at 30 knots. The swell is 8.9 at 8 from the NE.

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I was right.

14 day forecasts are usually meaningless for the Atlantic, sometimes helpful for southern hemisphere swells headed north (but high disappointment rate). The little bump of NE fetch starting Monday looks better than nothing. Proably best tomorrow morning--I need to be at home.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Chicamacomico Banks Fire & Rescue posted some photos of jet ski training just now. Looks like messy fun. Evidently even more expected around Thursday

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Haven't posted in years but just got back from Dana Point and Las Gaviotas with no waves and no surfing. Bummer. Water cold. So I'm back here cause I'm need waves. Saw that spin off OBX. Thinking small waves for an old man. Cheers everybody.

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Ah, religion, bigotry dressed up as morality.

2 feet 11 seconds from the NE sitting on the 20 mile buoy this sunday eve.

God I am keeping my fingers crossed.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

3 at 9 on the 20 at 10:30.



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I was right.

DEXTER. Headed east, pretty fast. httpsnhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...shtml?expCone#contents

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Its on!

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Surgery last week. I am the sacrifice. Enjoy!

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

25 people on the Hightower cam. I saw three drop-in within five minutes. lol

It's two feet and wobbly.

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I was right.

Fun enough! 3-4 feet on the sets. South wind choppin it out a little bit. Water felt great. Caught a couple.

20 mile buoy is currently 4 feet (rounding up) and 11 seconds from the NE.

And, virtual buoy is currently in scare mode for the 14/15th/16th. saying surf 13 to 15 feet. Something to watch!

Get those paddling muscles in shape if not already!

--am now but wasnt this morn! Pretty fun, chest plus on sets with a sideshore bump. Surfed north Melb, low crowd. Havent surfed since Fathers day, so it was good to get wet and figure out this surf thing again. Wax goes on top of the board if I remember....lol i was chkn the highcrowder cam this morn, good grief people...

Edited: 08/04/2025 at 10:00 AM by IamSAW2

Surfline and Surf-forecast have high energy forecasts for 18-20, with Surf-forecast going very high, up to 11,000 for Spanish House north on Monday night thru Wednesday night.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Saturday, Surfline has backed off a bit, but still very high energy/wave levels, especially Tues. Surfline pretty much the same. 500 kj would be impressive anywhere.

Late Saturday, GFS is putting the hurricane farther out to sea; surf forecasts are accordingly lowering expectations a bit.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Edited: 08/09/2025 at 05:07 PM by Wavewatcher

Wabasso now has a beach cam at Surf Guru and Indian River county government

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Sunday, Windy's models are showing a next-week hurricane well offshore but healthy wave fields extending to Florida. Surfline and Surf-Forecast have drastically reduced forecasts of wave height and energy. Nice but scarcely epic. Outer Banks might be worth the trip.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

A good time for sure.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

I wasn't sure how to handle a wave I didn't have to grovel on. The first open face freaked me out.

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I was right.

Edited: 08/04/2025 at 01:14 PM by Cole

fyi, Monday afternoon models tampered down greatly that aug 14/15th potential swell.

Surf was better this Tuesday morning. Glassy, longer lines and more power, 3-4 feet.

fyi, 20 mile buoy still showing swell. Probably another similar day for Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY
North winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 06 2025

...DEXTER STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Tune in next week as the models turn!

Thanks for the wabasso cam link.

In looking at Surf-Forecast and Surfline (the former is easier to move around north Florida), it seems worth looking at NSB to St Augustine. The likely storm trajectory suggests it won't be kind to south Florida. Emphasis on "suggests"

Wabasso's got so little parking, it can't get overly crowded, other than inland guests at Disney, but they seem to stay in front of the hotel rather than migrate a bit north so lifeguards can keep eyes on them. It's the only beach park in Indian River Co. that's worth having a cam. Good to have local sponsorship.

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wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again