NWS melbourne discussion Monday mid-morning:

Short-range models seem to be liking the atmosphere ahead of the
approaching system for today better than this time yesterday. The
HRRR, should it verify, shows numerous convective coverage this
afternoon, but think this is a bit overplayed, though it would be
nice for our dry situation. Speaking of the HRRR, it shows coverage
increasing early this afternoon across the interior, then moving NE
toward the east coast and hitting the ECSB, intensifying along the
east coast and moving offshore across the coastal waters. For now,
will keep 30 to 40 PoPs areawide until something shows me otherwise
as the mid/upper levels are not overly impressive, though we are a
bit cooler aloft than recent days. There will be a threat for
lightning with this afternoon`s activity, too.

Tonight...the front advances into north-central FL and perhaps near
or just north of the I-4 corridor by daybreak Tue morning. Deep
layer moisture will pool to 1.70-1.90 inches along/ahead of the
boundary across ECFL. Ongoing convection and deepening moisture will
prompt continued chances of precipitation through the night. Highest
PoPs (50pct) will be across the I-4 corridor, closest to the front,
with decreasing chances southward (30-40pct). With the little
dynamic support suspect highest chances will be during the evening,
then increasing late in the night or toward sunrise northward near
the approaching front.