Hello, it's me again....

ummmm....

 

what channel are you on?...

we did get lots O rain down here last Sunday.

But we were in Satellite yesterday and the house we sold..well the front yard is looking like a desert!!!

our son who lives in Palm Bay, said rain came up as far as Sebastian and stopped!

maybe change brands of Tin Foil..go with the Super Heavey Duty!

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BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Thanks for the tip, if it works I'll let you know!

Next chance of rain:

Isold shras on Mon, chc of tsras late Mon night as a frontal
boundary approaches the area.

Just filled the pool ystdy for the second time in less than a month!

Yeah so bad I thought my pool was leaking and did the bucket test on it. Lol

got just a splash this weekend, 1/2" or so

enough to help the dry spots

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Seriously, please!

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

None here in Satellite. Had three drops before lunch today, so there is hope.

NWS melbourne discussion Monday mid-morning:

Short-range models seem to be liking the atmosphere ahead of the
approaching system for today better than this time yesterday. The
HRRR, should it verify, shows numerous convective coverage this
afternoon, but think this is a bit overplayed, though it would be
nice for our dry situation. Speaking of the HRRR, it shows coverage
increasing early this afternoon across the interior, then moving NE
toward the east coast and hitting the ECSB, intensifying along the
east coast and moving offshore across the coastal waters. For now,
will keep 30 to 40 PoPs areawide until something shows me otherwise
as the mid/upper levels are not overly impressive, though we are a
bit cooler aloft than recent days. There will be a threat for
lightning with this afternoon`s activity, too.

Tonight...the front advances into north-central FL and perhaps near
or just north of the I-4 corridor by daybreak Tue morning. Deep
layer moisture will pool to 1.70-1.90 inches along/ahead of the
boundary across ECFL. Ongoing convection and deepening moisture will
prompt continued chances of precipitation through the night. Highest
PoPs (50pct) will be across the I-4 corridor, closest to the front,
with decreasing chances southward (30-40pct). With the little
dynamic support suspect highest chances will be during the evening,
then increasing late in the night or toward sunrise northward near
the approaching front.

Cliff Notes: Those cursed won't get any rain.

if not tonight, then Tuesday, just updated from nws melbourne:

Tue...Should be some ISOLD-SCT convection around ECFL by sunrise Tue
morning, with greatest potential for this near/north of I-4 near and
out ahead of the approaching diminishing front. SCT-NMRS (50-60pct)
showers are forecast along with ISOLD lightning storms. Locally
heavy downpours, gusty winds, and occasional lightning will be the
main threats with storm motion generally out of the west. Activity
will slowly end from north to south during the day as the weakening
boundary sags southward. SW to W winds will veer into the afternoon
all the way around to NE with speeds averaging 10-15 mph. Modest
surface heating will allow temperatures to reach the M-U80s across
the interior and L-M80s near the coast.

Rain to the north, south, and west.... still cursed

Got about 1/4 inch this afternoon. Just guessing though. rain buckets have something in it. Need more...come on Rain Gawd...you can do it!

Planted a couple trees yesterday and when digging the hole the soil was like concrete it was so dry.

It rained here almost enough to get the sidewalk completely wet. So basically nothing.

Looks like we will have a cool down for the weekend! Last cool front? Get heavy work done in the yard weekend.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
413 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017

...A Couple Periods of Much Needed Rain then Drying by the
Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Today/Tonight...A large storm system extending from the Upr Midwest
into the Canadian Maritimes has pulled a weakening cold front into
the FL Big Bend/ern Panhandle as of release time. By daybreak, the
front will be encroaching on the I-4 Corridor. Ahead of the front,
H85-H30 vorticity is not well organized, but H85-H30 omega/H30-H20
divergence is quite strong, allowing sct shras/isold tsras to form
over the central FL Peninsula. Precip has been increasing over the
past few hrs, especially over the I-75 Corridor. Trend will continue
well past sunrise as RAP40 analysis shows plentiful prefrontal
moisture: sfc dewpoints in the L/M70s, lyr PWat btwn 1.75"-2.00",
and H100-H70 mean RH btwn 80-90pct.

As the storm system lifts into ern Canada, it will abandon the srn
extension of its frontal trof, leaving it with its (weak) post
frontal ridge and its own inertia as forward momentum. Models have
consistently slowed the front as it treks thru central FL, stalling
it in the vcnty of Lake-O/Jupiter Inlet arnd sunset where it will
gradually washout. Given the strength and depth of the Atlc ridge it
is currently plowing into, plus the fact that post frontal steering
winds have a much more zonal than meridional component, and the
scenario is reasonable.

The 02/00Z RAOBs show the H85-H70 subsidence inversion that was in
place overhead has largely eroded, opening the door for 50-70pct
areal coverage. However, H85-h50 lapse rates btwn 5.5-6.0C/KM are
marginal at best, and H50 temps btwn -8C/-9C do not suggest strong
let alone severe convection. Precip will end quickly with the fropa,
will downgrade PoPs from Orange/N Brevard northward from sct to slgt
chc by midday, continuing nmrs shras/sct tsras to the south. Max
temps in the M/U80s due to sky cover and cooling rain.

Precip may linger over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region for a few
hrs past sunset, but should be done by midnight as drier air begins
to filter into the south FL Peninsula. Min temps in the L/M60s over
the interior...M/U60s along the coast.


Wed-Fri...A shortwave trough will dig into the southern Plains then
lift northeast through late week, pulling a strengthening surface
low with it. The associated frontal boundary will approach the local
area Thu and slide to our southeast on Fri.

The 00z GFS showed lingering moisture band associated with a
weakening frontal trough pushing south of Okeechobee on Wed as
weak high pressure pushes offshore to our north. MOS POPs are
less than 10 percent areawide Wed, so will have a dry forecast.

Moisture ahead of the next front is forecast to reach the area Thu
afternoon into Thu night and bring a chance for showers/storms. The
band of convection should pass offshore Fri morning. Blended
model guidance supports likely PoPs across the north Thu night
and across the south on Fri.

Weekend-Tue...Cool front settling through the Bahamas will leave the
area in a dry west/northwest flow Sat. Weak high pressure ridge is
then forecast to extend from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida
peninsula Sun-Tue and continue dry conditions.

Morning lows will be below normal Sat/Sun and are projected to fall
into the 50s over much of the area. High temperatures will also be
below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sat then a gradual
moderating trend towards normal will occur through early next week
with readings getting back in the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Frontal boundary approaching the FL Big Bend will
push acrs central FL thru the day and stall in the vcnty of Jupiter
Inlet/Lake-O overnight. Sfc/bndry lyr winds shifting with the
fropa...gentle to moderate W/SW breeze ahead of the boundary,
shifting rapidly to a gentle to moderate NE breeze in its wake. Seas
3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore thru early evng, subsiding to 2-
3ft nearshore and 3-4FT offshore arnd sunset. Sct/nmrs shras and
isold/sct tsras moving offshore.

Wed-Fri...Weak high pressure area will push offshore to our north
on Wed, which will bring a northeast/east wind flow Wed up to
10-15 knots. The next frontal trough will approach on Thu and
southeast winds 10-15 knots will become south near 20 knots in
the afternoon and into the night. Winds will become southwest
early Fri then west by afternoon as the frontal boundary pushes
through. Conditions for small craft operations will be poor to
marginally hazardous Thu afternoon through Fri night. There will
also be a band of showers/storms moving across the waters, mainly
from Thu night into early Fri afternoon.

Sat...Post frontal west/northwest winds may be near 20 knots in
the morning but then are forecast to decrease in the afternoon.
Seas 4-6 feet offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record daily rainfall of 0.98 inches at VRB on May 1.
Old record was 0.95 in 1966.

&&

RAined Hard in Vero for the past hour

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Finally rain here as well. Good soaking.

pissed, got zilch on Tuesday.

Of course even with the rain, neighbor down the street ran his sprinklers for 3 hours in the evening and they have been on since 6 this morning and still going. Dude runs his sprinklers like 5 hours a day 7 days a week and only has managed to replace most of his grass with dollar weed.

Dave no rain on Tuesday? ouch! 2 inches in satellite beach. May be he doesn't like how you spell his name?

Could be. I was watching the radar and saw just south of me and into Satellite was getting hammered. I came home and my rain buckets were bone dry. ERRGGGGGGG...... I'm cursed!

I watched the radar yesterday. I felt bad for that pocket that got skipped.

-------------------------
...

another chance tonight and Friday morning:


National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Breezy south winds are ushering moisture
into the region, however surface boundary development is hindered
due to the strength of the winds. The best rain potential locally
looks to be centered over N Central FL with approach of the band
of storms presently over the Eastern Gulf of Mex. It is expected
a general decrease in intensity/coverage should occur as the line
progresses inland from the gulf side this evening and moves over
the area overnight. A few strong storms will be possible with
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

A late season front will sweep over the area beginning Friday
morning preceded by a chance of showers and some embedded storms,
mainly across the southern sections along the Treasure Coast and
Lake Okeechobee in the morning. Rainfall coverage will be less
prevalent across the north where a rather early fropa and airmass
drying will commence. Highs will remain only in the 70s across a
good portion of Central Florida due to the early frontal psg,
with some 80s where rainfall lingers in the AM and early aftn.

Saturday-Sunday...A breezy westerly wind flow will exist across
the area Saturday as front shifts well away from the region and
deep low pressure lingers across the northeast United States.
Offshore winds then decrease slightly into late weekend as high
pressure nudges in to south Florida from the Gulf. Drier air
behind the frontal boundary will keep rain chances out of the
forecast through the weekend. Highs will be cooler than normal in
the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday, then closer to normal in the
low to mid 80s Sunday. Lows will be able to drop into the 50s over
much of the area early each morning.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) A mid level ridge across the
Gulf of Mexico will flatten some and move toward the FL peninsula by
Thu. Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf will drift
toward FL into late week. This will set up a dry weather pattern for
early to mid week with light winds in the morning and the east coast
sea breeze moving inland each afternoon. Highs early in the week
will range from the lower 80s coast to mid to upper 80s well inland.
Highs will warm to the mid to upper 80s Wed and upper 80s to around
90 expected by next Thu. Lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s to start
the week will warm to 65-70 by Thu morning.

Four of my rain barrels are pretty full from Tuesday but everything was already wilting today. Hoping for the morning.

got a trace of rain tonight.

Yeah, got a little rain over night. AND, raining this friday morning. Bring it.

Got a little bit the last couple days here in the "Sykes creek pocket".

Not enough though. Weekend weather looks like commerce-of-chamber like. Dry and cool (relative to Florida).

small rain chance on Saturday, but nothing before and after. ugh.

I was totally amazed to be away in New Zealand, knowing the drought was on, and to come back to find the yard nice and green, no irrigation.  Just enough rain to keep it going.  

10% chance each day over the weekend...that means no rain in my world.

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

 

http://www.sjrwmd.com/hydroconditionsreport/

Click on the "Monthly Actual" and "12 Months Actual".

Things are pretty bleak in our cocoa/rockledge neighborhood.

Only green lawns are being watered way more than the designated 2 days per week.

It is killing me trying to get our drought tolerant landscape established. Most of what we have put in this year are very drought tolerant but even sunshine mimosa needs supplemental water when getting established.

 

-------------------------
...

Luckily one of my hobbies is having a watering hose in one hand and a beer in the other! Job security this time of year! I hate Spring time droughts, rather just sip beer....

Check the radar...all that water to the north of us and none for us...

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Band of higher moisture associated with frontal
boundary over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will push slowly east as a
mid level shortwave trough sags southeastward across north Florida.
Current slow moving band of pre-frontal convection will continue
to sag through the area into evening. How much coverage we get
overnight is questionable but the HRRR suggests most areas will
receive a shot at rainfall. MOS POPs range from 30-40 percent and
will shade towards 40 percent based on the HRRR.

Sunday...Axis of mid level shortwave trough will cross the area and
deepest moisture will be shunted off the the east and south of the
local area. There should be some lingering moisture from the
associated weakening frontal boundary though, so small POPs will
linger, especially across the south. Max temps don`t look as hot as
they have been recently, mainly upper 80s coast and lower 90s well
inland.

Got a short rain this am

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Bone dry here.

I was in Jacksonville over the weekend. They got about 2 inches of rain Saturday and Sunday.

One of these days we will get rain again! april/may dry season in full effect!

Was over at Jerry Hooper's this weekend. A lot of his stuff was showing effects of the drought. For the most part, I have focused all the water lovers near hoses. Ain't too proud to drag around my hose!

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Vero airport got 0.45" while I was away this afternoon.  I assume the house got something similar.  

Maybe, Maybe not. It was pretty spotty.



-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Everything looked wet.  Yes, the coastal showers make for thin streamers of rain.  

Nada here in satellite

Dear Rain Gawd...FU....

(trying a new tactic)

Hope it works for you CFD!

 

we had about 1 inch on Wed  and a nice shower last night too!

While driving up from Jensen you can sea it change from green to ...tan really quick after Sebastian...

 

F/ off wain dog!!! hope it helps...

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Getting a little rain shower at the moment at my house in Palm Bay.

DM

I give up.

(Next tactic I'm trying)

try rubbing two sticks together maybe the extra heat will cause more water evaporation and it will rain ...btw...the scouts have a different view of the the 2 sticks theory!

shitty ppoopy......terd head wain dog...i'm still old school!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Lots of showers along I-95 on the way to Jacksonville Sunday 10 am to 1 pm

 

East coast seabreeze had a speckling of activity on the radar around 11AM yesterday as it marched inland. Little cell dumped on us in NE Rockledge by the river.

I dug up two zones of our irrigation last week and re-ran the lines to new locations for more efficient coverage while our drought-tolerant landscape is getting established. Pulled one zone out of an area that will no longer be irrigated. That effort should bring rain. No trencher. Used a spade and tunnelled around and under all major oak roots. PITA, especially going through the remnants of the septic drain field where there is more root mass than soil. Hopefully the trees are happy for the consideration.

Fingers cross for today through Thursday.

-------------------------
...

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
946 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Better Rain Chances Daily Today Through Through Midweek...

A more favorable setup for development of afternoon convection
continues to evolve as a series of mid level disturbances moving
across the lwr MS Valley and the SE states will combine with deeper
local moisture, ample surface heating and surface boundaries for
showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening. The morning
sounding @ XMR shows a notable increase in column moisture over the
past 24H with just under 2 inches PWAT. Light sfc winds will allow
for the development of a defined east coast breeze along with local
boundaries near larger bodies of water. A westerly steering
component developing to winds aloft will favor the middle to eastern
portion of the peninsula for movement of aftn/eve showers/storms.
Higher coverage amount wl be across the I-4 corridor east to Volusia
Co and the Space Coast late today. A few storms may become strong
with gusty winds, frequent lightinng and small hail.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in upper 60s to
low 70s tonight.

Bleak. Monday looked just like most of last year with the seabreeze collision sparking convection along the I-4 corridor with very little making it back to the Brevard coast.

Today I'm seeing dewpoints in the mid-60s with a lot of high overcast blowing in off distant storms. That isn't a recipe for much hope today.

Hyping rain feels like hyping a swell these days.

-------------------------
...

Rain or Swell. Which do we want worse?

Rain since at least we have a shot at THAT this week. After Thursday we can start to PFS!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

I got a trace of rain this Tuesday afternoon. Not enough to soak thru the mulch. But, something. Rain buckets caught some so can use that to water my jaboticaba.

poopy dog poop!! >dog...i pea on your leg!

we got 10 drops...more cowbell!!!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Uh...does cowbell work for rain? I own one. I can beat the living shit out of a cowbell if needed. I'll do it in the morning and see if it works. Thanks for the advice.

I saw a jaboticaba at Leu Gardens this year that I really wanted but we live on a sand dune. How hard it is to keep those happy on "excessively drained" soils as our soil is described in the soils map?

I'm going to keep hunting for large flower paw paw to fill out our fruit section.

 

-------------------------
...

scombrid, I put mine on the AC condensate drain and it loves life. I have another one, a red, that is at the bottom of a downspout, which gets considerably less water (especially lately) and it has even produced fruit! Both are very sheltered which keeps salt off them (1000 ft from ocean) and serve to keep a lot of the rougher winds off them, reducing evapotranspiration. I have had to add an acidic fertilizer to the red to make it happier. It responded instantly.

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Jaboticaba, especially when young and newly planted can not tolerate any drought. Plus, need good water. I only use capture rain water on them (which has been a struggle the past month).

I pretty much try to water them at least once every other day, if not daily. Well water will put them in slow decline and death.

NEED MORE COWBELL....


National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Threats will include
frequent lightning, heavy downpours with local ponding of water on
roadways, hail, potentially damaging straight-line winds, and/or an
isolated tornado or two. The present watch box could get expanded
further south later today/tonight. All of this expected shower/storm
activity will be aided by a large upper trough over the Deep South,
greater than normal jet stream energy this far south/this time of
year, increased moisture, surface heating and a weak cool frontal
boundary just north of the area. Storm motion will be from the
southwest toward the northeast at over 40 mph. Multiple rounds of
convection this afternoon/evening could bring beneficial rainfall on
average of 1 to 2 inches across ECFL with some locally higher
amounts possible by the time this system clears all of ECFL by
tomorrow afternoon.

I would love to see some ponding!

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Afternoon radar is looking good for a nice rain event this evening.
Got a few random large drops at the house a couple of minutes ago.
Low rumble of thunder in the distance.

Yah!

DM

swearing helped...hope i didn't swear tooooo much!

your welcome!


-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

I thought Dave might have done a naked rain dance.

DM

NO Dangermouse01.....my eyes..my eyes!!!!


you can knock it off with the cowbell Dave!!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

0.23" at the Vero airport.  Disappointing.

about the same here...Too much giddy-up and not enough whoa!!

Ok Dave....More cowbell!!!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

I got about 1/2 inch on Wednesday. A little dissapointed but will take it. Just one quick shower but it was pretty heavy. Need More Cowbell...

Got a good soaking (but no ponding ) last evening but this morning we've had 3 heavy showers come through. I'm guessing another 1/2" at least. Plants will definitely be happy campers.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

1.06" this morning.

I shoulda put some food down.

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Ok who got the most?
Officially Vero got 1.06" on Thursday and .23" Wednesday.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Typically the last week in May sparks C.Fla wet season. Looking at Weather.com 10 day forecast the rain chances go up on Wednesday and into next weekend. Hopefully that is the start of the wet season and we start to get regular rain around here....

Yeah for the rainy season that obviously started!

i took off the foil hat and am now talking very "civilized" 2 the nice rain dog....have a nice day....
Now where is my motherf..king boat!!!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

LOL. Daily rain makes me happy.

Man, me too. Keep the daily showers coming. The afternoons were blazing hot before the rains came.

.6 inches yesterday in vero. Lots more south of us!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Upside - Green, green, green everywhere; Downside - mosquitoes and humidity have returned in full force

ugh, mosquito and humidity...however, the afternoon and evenings have been great temps. Last night it was 73F right before dark. That is kinda cool for June. Thanks to the overcast conditions!

Make sure you don't have any standing water in the yard to help cut down on the mosquito. I gotta drain all my rain catching buckets tonight. I see some wigglers in them.

All right you little pinhead!!!
Enough is enough!!!!
Ooops!!
i bad...
Eerrrrr.
pleaze!

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Rain for the barrier islands please.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Yes, we are in another mini-drought. ugh...

Seems to be the new normal for summer. Air mass too stable for the east coast seabreeze to generate late morning early afternoon showers as it pushes inland so we don't get anything east of I-95 unless there is a stout westerly component to the steering winds to push the storms over the interior back to the coast in the evenings.

The cloudless days and hot nights are rough on a lot of plants. I've moved a lot of "full sun" plants into partial shade as the landscape that we've been installing has evolved.

Our new mimosa lawn in the front is happy though.

-------------------------
...

Ok dog for shit brains!!!!
We could use some and i will spell i for you!!!
R A I N .
Can't you get us on a better schedule or something!!!
You do have the force or do i need to have a chat with Neptune over in The Water Dept?

As always

Your friend
Burry

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

Almost at the last minute, substantial rain here in Vero, 0.93 at the airport, enough since then to easily make it an inch.  Looks like most everyone else.  

We were getting to where you could water the grass pretty generously on Sunday, and by this morning it was looking ready to hibernate.  

Edited: 07/12/2017 at 04:09 PM by ww

at this moment it seems to be participating precipitation at preposterously progressive pace!

just my observation ...

-------------------------
BurrysBreak

Inflation caused The BIG BANG...look it up!

yeah, we got some goods yesterday! Keep it coming!

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

It is weird how we see a two week mini-drought then flooding rain. I'm not complaining though. I haven't had to drag the hose in a long time.

Typical Florida...high highs and low lows.

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

I know I begged for rain but enough already. The lawn is growing too fast!!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Daner, I'll ban you if you complain about the rain (LOL)...I love it. It was nice to do yard work last night after the severe storms moved through. It cooled off to mid-70s.

LOL I take it back.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean