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Topic Title: Dry season comes early.
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Created On: 03/11/2020 08:04 AM
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 05/27/2020 06:56 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

On 2nd named storm of the season, and all before June. Bertha soaked us pretty good and looks to get us again this afternoon.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight...The surface trough that brought us heavy rain
earlier this week is now located just offshore of the northeast
Florida peninsula. This puts central Florida on the ascending side
of the trough as prevailing southwest flow continues to advect deep
moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will
develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage along the coast.
Rain chances around 40-50 percent across the far inland areas, and
50-60 percent from Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to the east coast.

Storms to first develop along the west coast breeze on the western
side of the peninsula, pushing east into our area this afternoon.
The east coast sea breeze should be pinned mostly along the coast.
This is where the main sea breeze collision will occur leading to
the development of numerous thunderstorms. The main threats with
these storms being deadly cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
torrential downpours. There is a localized flooding threat in Martin
County due to heavy rain that recently fell there. Any heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding of roads, low-lying areas and
poor drainage spots.

Southwest flow favors hotter than expected temperatures in our area.
Highs this afternoon should reach the low 90s across east central
Florida. Would not be surprised to see a few spots reach the mid 90s
along the coast if the east coast sea breeze remains pinned. Showers
and storms linger into the evening hours before pushing offshore and
dissipating. A mostly dry and warm night ahead as overnight lows
slightly above normal in the low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Thu...A cutoff Low over the ARKLATEX wl open
into a wave form and usher out toward the OH valley by Thu night.
Favorable moisture in excess of 1.6 inches. Light winds aloft will
lead to sct to nmrs slow moving showers and storms. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain a concern due to recent rains. A pattern
change Fri due to sfc ridge building in from the Wrn Atlc basin
and across the peninsula. Light steering winds should focus
inland for development of afternoon storms. Expect sct to
numerous slow moving storms once again Fri, with slightly higher
coverage inland due to expected boundary interactions during the
heat of the day.

Weekend...Upr troughing across the Appalachians and SE states will
amplify swd, leading to weakening high pressure locally. Westerly
winds aloft will favor the eastern side of the peninsula for
storm movement and development. Coverage of showers and storms wk
be slightly higher than normal due to less convective inhibition
overall with temperatures near seasonal normal. Rain chances 50 to
70 percent Sat will reduce a little to around 40-50 pct Sunday.

Extended...Into next week, GFS guid continues to indicate modest
onshore winds from the Atlc with a deepening Caribbean gyre
centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall
trend to the south, however a wetter pattern is shown south of
the area with a Iso-Sct showers in the form of diurnal increases
will be a daily local feature with limited temperature ranges due
to marine influence.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of low stratus and shallow ground fog will produce IFR/LIFR
conditions across portions of the area this morning before burning
off by late morning. Numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop mid to late afternoon with the highest coverage along the
coast. TEMPO groups likely to be added for 12Z TAF package at
coastal terminals. Storms push offshore and dissipate by this
evening with VFR conditions prevailing after.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions return to all local
waters today as seas diminish further. Southwest winds this morning
around 10 knots become south/southeast by this afternoon at 10-15
knots as the sea breeze develops. Seas around 3-4 feet. Numerous
thunderstorms will move offshore by mid to late afternoon with the
main threats being dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
wind gusts up to 34 knots. Convection moves offshore and dissipates
by this evening, though some showers could linger offshore overnight.

Late Week/Weekend...High pressure wl begin to establish from the
Wrn Atlc basin toward the Gulf of Mex Thu-Fri. Marine conditions
should correspondingly improve, with seas diminishing to around 3
ft Thu. Seas thereafter wl average around 3-4 ft into the weekend
due to an expected swell component, with an light onshore wind,
increasing in the afternoons due to sea breeze development.

Extended...Light to gentle onshore winds early next week with seas
around 3 ft Mon, increasing to 4 to 6 ft Tue as onshore winds show
an increase in gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 72 90 73 / 60 40 50 20
MCO 91 73 93 73 / 50 20 60 30
MLB 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 50 20
VRB 90 74 88 73 / 60 40 50 20
LEE 90 74 93 74 / 40 10 70 30
SFB 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 30
ORL 91 74 94 74 / 50 20 70 30
FPR 91 72 88 72 / 60 40 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
 06/02/2020 08:29 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

holy rain...I've counted 7 consecutive hours of rain this morning.
 06/05/2020 05:29 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
808 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

...May 2020 was Wetter Than Normal with Average Temperatures Near to
Above Normal Across East Central Florida...

Mostly dry and cooler than normal conditions generally dominated
during the first half of May. However, from mid-month onward,
rainfall and temperatures increased as surges of tropical moisture
lifted northward into the area from areas of low pressure that
eventually became Tropical Storm Arthur and Bertha east to
northeast of Florida during this time frame. This helped kick off an
early start to the wet season across the region, with the wetter
pattern during the second half of the month producing rainfall
totals that were above to well above normal for May across the area.
The warmer and humid conditions largely offset any cooler weather
earlier in the month, with average temperatures for May ending up
near to slightly above normal.


...Temperatures...

A cooler period started off the month, with lows falling into the
50s to low 60s for the first few days of May. A brief warm-up then
occurred with Vero Beach breaking their record high on the 5th,
reaching 94 degrees that afternoon. A few additional cold fronts
then followed, which combined with brief increases in rainfall and
cloud cover helped keep daily average temperatures mostly near to
below normal for the next several days. On the 10th, record cool
highs were actually set at Melbourne and Vero Beach, as temperatures
didnt climb out of the mid 70s that day. Temperatures then remained
generally near to above normal into the latter half of the month as
more humid conditions settled into the region from tropical moisture
that was lifted northward from systems that eventually developed
into Tropical Cyclones Arthur and Bertha. Several record warm low
temperatures were either set or tied across the area from the 14th
onward, with lows in the 70s. On May 24th, Vero Beach broke and Fort
Pierce tied their warmest minimum temperature records for the month
of May, with lows of 79 and 78 degrees respectively.

Warmer than normal temperatures during the second half of the month
offset any cooler weather during the first half, with average
temperature departures for May 2020 ending up near to up to a degree
above normal. Leesburg was the only primary climate site to break
into the top ten rankings, with an average temperature that tied for
9th warmest for the month of May. Also of note, Melbournes average
temperature for May ended up 0.3 degrees below normal. While this is
still technically close to their normal value, this is the first
time since February 2016 that the monthly average temperature fell
below normal at Melbourne, breaking a very long stretch of 50
straight months!


Daily Record Temperatures for the Month:

Daytona Beach:
- No daily temperature records set.

Leesburg:
- May 24th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 1978.
- May 25th: Record cool high of 78 degrees. Previous record was 80
degrees last set in 1968.

Sanford:
- May 16th: Tied record warm low of 72 degrees last set in 1995.
- May 18th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 2003.
- May 24th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 2017.
- May 25th: Record cool high of 80 degrees. Previous record was 81
degrees last set in 1968.

Orlando:
- May 16th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 1995.
- May 24th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 2015.

Melbourne:
- May 24th: Record warm low of 78 degrees. Previous record was 77
degrees last set in 2016.
- May 10th: Tied record cool high of 75 degrees last set in 1969.

Vero Beach:
- May 5th: Record high of 94 degrees. Previous record was 92 degrees
last set in 1947.
- May 10th: Record cool high of 77 degrees. Previous record was
78 degrees last set in 1984.
- May 20th: Tied record high of 93 degrees last set in 1981.
- May 24th: Record warm low of 79 degrees. Previous record was 78
degrees last set in 2015. This also tied the warmest minimum
temperature on record in May at this site, last set on May 27th,
1991.

Fort Pierce:
- May 14th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 2014.
- May 24th: Tied record warm low of 78 degrees last set in 2015.
This also tied the warmest minimum temperature on record in May at
this site, last set on May 19th, 2017.


Average temperatures for May 2020 at the primary climates across
east central Florida are as follows (rankings provided if in the top
10):

- Daytona Beach had a monthly average temperature of 74.8 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.2 degrees below normal.

- Leesburg had a monthly average temperature of 78.7 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 1.4 degrees above normal. This ties as the 9th
warmest average temperature for May on record at this site, also set
during May of 1995, with records extending back to 1958.

- Sanford had a monthly average temperature of 77.8 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.6 degrees above normal.

- Orlando had a monthly average temperature of 78.0 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.7 degrees above normal.

- Melbourne had a monthly average temperature of 76.0 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.3 degrees below normal.

- Vero Beach had a monthly average temperature of 77.0 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.8 degrees above normal.

- Fort Pierce had a monthly average temperature of 76.9 degrees
Fahrenheit, which was 0.8 degrees above normal.



...Rainfall...

Much of the first half of May was rather dry, with only a slight
increase in rainfall on the 10th from scattered showers and storms
that developed from a frontal boundary that moved into and stalled
across the area. Low pressure that lifted northeast off the
southeast coast of Florida toward mid-month, eventually developed
into Tropical Storm Arthur offshore of the Florida east coast late
on the 16th. This system transported deep tropical moisture
northward into the area that increased precipitation, and eventually
helped kick off an early start to the wet season on the 21st when
numerous strong to severe sea breeze generated storms developed over
east central Florida. Some of these storms produced large hail, with
a 3-inch diameter hailstone falling in Lake Mary. This tied for
largest hailstone to fall in east central Florida since storm
records began in 1950.

A tropical wave lifted northward and across the area from the 25th
through the 26th, and later developed into Tropical Storm Bertha off
the coast of South Carolina. This led to a very wet Memorial Day,
especially for areas southeast of the I-4 corridor. From the 24th
through early morning of the 26th, rainfall totals around 2 to 4
inches occurred across Brevard and Okeechobee counties and much of
the inland portions of the Treasure Coast. However, localized higher
amounts up to 10 to 14 inches fell across extreme southeast St.
Lucie County and along the coast of Martin County. High coverage of
showers and storms then persisted into the remainder of the month,
continuing the wetter than normal pattern.

The increase in rainfall during the second half of the month largely
made up monthly precipitation totals that were around 3 to 7 inches
across the area, with locally higher amounts up to 10 to 16 inches
along the Treasure Coast. These amounts were above to well above
normal for the month. Fort Pierce had their 7th highest rainfall
total for May on record with 9.08 inches, and Stuart for the second
month in the row had their second highest rainfall amount on record,
with a total of 14.33 inches.



Daily Record Rainfall for the Month:

Sanford:
- May 21st: Record daily rainfall of 1.62 inches. Previous record
was 1.13 inches set in 1966.

Vero Beach:
- May 25th: Record daily rainfall of 2.85 inches. Previous record
was 2.30 inches set in 1973.


May 2020 rainfall totals for the primary climate sites across
east central Florida are as follows (ranking provided if in the top
10):

- Daytona Beach received 3.52 inches of rain for the month, which
was 0.39 inches above normal.

- Leesburg received 2.72 inches of rain for the month, which was
0.19 inches below normal.

- Sanford received 4.36 inches of rain for the month, which was 1.19
inches above normal.

- Orlando received 3.85 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.40
inches above normal.

- Melbourne received 5.20 inches of rain for the month, which was
1.91 inches above normal.

- Vero Beach received 6.53 inches of rain for the month, which was
3.17 inches above normal.

- Fort Pierce received 9.08 inches of rain for the month, which was
5.25 inches above normal. This ranks as the 7th highest rainfall
total for May on record at this site, with records going back to
1901.


Cooperative Observer Station Rainfall Rankings (Note: These totals
for May end around 7 AM on the 31st):

- Stuart received 14.33 inches of rain for the month, which ranks as
the 2nd highest rainfall total for May on record at this site, with
records going back to 1935.


Below is a list of observed precipitation totals and rainfall
statistics for select sites across east central Florida for
May 2020:

Station May 2020 Normal Departure Percent of
Rainfall Rainfall From Normal Normal

Daytona Beach 3.52" 3.13" +0.39" 112%
(DAB)
Orlando 3.85" 3.45" +0.40" 112%
(MCO)
Melbourne 5.20" 3.29" +1.91" 158%
(MLB)
Vero Beach 6.53" 3.36" +3.17" 194%
(VRB)
Leesburg 2.72" 2.91" -0.19" 93%
(LEE)
DeLand* 5.80" 3.62" +2.18" 160%
(DELF1)
Sanford 4.36" 3.17" +1.19" 138%
(SFB)
Titusville* 4.33" 3.05" +1.28" 142%
(TITF1)
Fort Pierce 9.08" 3.83" +5.25" 237%
(FPR)
Stuart* 14.33" 5.03" +9.30" 285%
(STRF1)

*Rainfall totals for the month end around 7 AM on the 31st.
 06/06/2020 07:43 PM
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Plan B

Posts: 3076
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

D*MN... some intense rain here tonight, just south of St. A beach.... river flowing down the street. I drug my dorian sandbags out. Prob had 2" in an hour
 06/07/2020 11:03 AM
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seaspray

Posts: 445
Joined Forum: 05/10/2012

Shouldn't have to worry about wildfires this summer, after what feels like 2 week straight of rain
 06/08/2020 11:34 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Probably should worry about swarms of mosquito now that it has dried out some and the sun is finally out. Make sure to dump any standing water out from around your yard. Don't give them a home to hatch their larvae.

 06/22/2020 10:51 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I know there has been a lot of rain around me but I've only gotten about half an inch the past two weeks.
 06/24/2020 04:05 AM
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weldertom2

Posts: 1335
Joined Forum: 04/14/2005

4.89 inches for the month so far at my place in the core 32951.
 06/24/2020 10:39 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Last couple days heavy rain all around my house...I got nada...rain buckets are bone dry.

Oh Rain Gawd.......

When you see 90 percent chance of rain, my little black hole is the 10 percent.
 06/24/2020 10:41 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Yesterday's storm came right at me from the North, then just miraculously scooted around me. Checking the radar it was heavy rain. I'm like WHY?!?

I don't really need the rain all that much, nothing seems stressed out. The high humidity helps keep plants from drying out. But, i like to keep fresh rain on the jaboticaba. They can't dry out at all.

 07/05/2020 04:40 PM
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weldertom2

Posts: 1335
Joined Forum: 04/14/2005

July 4: 3.37 inches (at one point it was raining at a rate of 6.3 inches per hour!)
Today: .84 inches so far.
 07/05/2020 08:08 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49013
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Nice!
FORUMS : Central Florida Palm's Gardening Forum : Dry season comes early.

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