538

There are less than three weeks left in the campaign, and there are no more guaranteed opportunities for Trump or Clinton to command a huge public audience, as they do at the conventions and the debates (although, they’ll get plenty of attention, of course). Millions of people have already voted. Trump has had a significant advertising deficit, and an even more significant deficit in terms of his turnout operation. He’ll probably spend a significant chunk of the remaining news cycles quarreling over his contention that the election is rigged, and with the numerous women who have accused him of sexual assault. He doesn’t have an obvious — or even a not-so-obvious — path to the presidency.

http://clashdaily.com/2016/10/...mp-will-stomp-hillary/

-------------------------
The REAL truth is....both of the forum idiots are OWNED.
-BOTH of them have no clue who their owner is.
-They are both card carrying narcissists.
^These are PROVED facts.

Yet, no one will bet me.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

No one wants to interact with you in person.

That's funny.

 

"Oh, suspense! Suspense! Democracy is going to end with a cliffhanger. I guess we're all going to have to wait until November 9 to find out if we still have a country. If Donald Trump is in the mood for a peaceful transfer of power or if he's going to wipe his fat ass with the Constitution.'
-Colbert


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

I'm buying more guns in case Hillary wins - -

- - and buying more ammunition in case Donald wins.





-------------------------

Who is Keyser Soze?

^^^^

I expect three will be another panic and hoarding of ammo. When it happens if any of you schmucks want to buy bricks of .22 at a 200% mark up just ping me.

-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

Nope.Progs are pussies.

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I :heart; Q

I'd rather not take the chance of catching any STDs...

-------------------------
GOP:

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project

More likely, I would catch them from you. STD's are a prog disease.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

I put another $100 on the table a year ago.

Pot calling kettle?


-------------------------
I was right.

I got a $100 on it straight up here as well.


-------------------------
QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

Tpap

i'll quit commenting on NSR if the Donald wins & you quit if Hillary wins...

Of course no coming back under other names etc etc..

-------------------------
There are NO white people at all in the Bible... take all the time you need with that...
Please stop feeding the trolls - they will go away if you do...

No way. The resistance is counting on me during any Clinton presidency. Plus, I post more than you, so even 5-1 odds wouldn't be equitable. Let me think about this for awhile, and maybe I can come up with a bet we can both live with.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

My offer: 2-1 for a hundred.

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

'But I ain't worried. Trump's certain loss won't lead to his followers taking up arms and taking the streets. Because they're cowards. You've gotta be to truly believe you live in a world where you need an arsenal for home protection.'
This guy nailed it - LMAO at you cowards.


-------------------------
QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

I feel for you if you get robbed, carjacked or a home invasion and you have no protection...who's the coward now?

Nah, im good, thats why they have this thing called reloading. I was just liking his comment is all.

 

How the fuck is foregoing a firearm cowardice? There is no way to spin that.

You might take your lumps, but you aren't a coward.

You may die as well...good luck with that liberal.

We all gonna die, asshole.

Typical lib, I didn't mean that as a direct threat, sorry if i didn't go over the previous comments discussed. My reply was you may die if you are not armed in reaction to the events that may and can happen...see above sir.

Geez, give up before the hole gets any deeper.

You are digging your own hole...

Cowardice - Lack of bravery.

Coward - A person who lacks the courage to do or endure dangerous or unpleasant things.

Go night night now.

Dangerous or unpleasant things like defending yourself without a firearm.

Right now, the NY Times' Upshot gives Clinton a 93% chance.  Sam Wang at Princeton has two measures.  One of them puts Clinton at 99%.  

The Senate is more important (very likely to be Democratic for two years, then go back to Republican), and a Democratic House, which is highly unlikely, would be amazing.  

You make no sense. Better go pull those covers over your head as you cower in fear from unrealistic threats. What's it like to live constantly fearful? Life is passing you by...



-------------------------
QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

5-1 odds, which is what I can do in the betting market. Not a single taker?

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

Current odds from UBS:

Scenario--Probability--President--Senate-- House
1.---------42.5% ------Clinton----------D------R
2.---------15%----------Trump----------R------R
3.----------10%---------Clinton----------D-----D
4.----------32.5%-------Clinton----------R------R
5.-----------0------------Trump-----------D-----R
6.-----------0------------Trump-----------D-----D


Hey tampon post a link to your source of 5-1.

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Here's one.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

tampon, thanks for the link. Right now its 4-1.

Why do you need odds this time. You have not asked for that in the past?

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Getting powder was tough 08 to around 2015 or so. Recent front page headline of American Rifleman had Mrs Clinton on it. Usual chicken little rhetoric.

Prices and availability for everything has come down a lot. But starting to go back up as the lobby cranks up the rhetoric again.

Most people I know are stocked to the max.



-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

The other elections that I bet on were much closer. I need some upside for a risky bet. Standard thinking.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

If you are so confident, let's go straight up? $100 - I have paypal.



-------------------------
QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

It makes a lot of sense of you are able to read and interpret my previous post. Life is good for me, being prepared for anything is better.

 

You can try and pull a Steven Segal if the attacker has a firearm but if you fail its bye bye.

No shit; the discussion is whether is was COWARDLY. Can't you stay on track?

If Congress remains in R hands, it sounds like they are planning to try and block any nominations to the Supreme Court. That would be unprecedented.


-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

Only the Senate has a say. But they had better block a Justice if he/she is of the sort nominated by the PiC.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

Internal details of recent polls show a massive enthusiasm shift, likely voting is way down among Republicans (mostly those traditional Republicans that were trying to get on board the Trump train but can no longer stomach it).
Likely voting, and enthusiasm is way up among Democrats, plus they have a massive well funded new voter registration and GOTV effort. GOP/Trump GOTV effort is poor.

2 weeks left, anything can happen it's a crazy year but if these trends are real and hold we are looking at a blowout.

My prediction today:

Clinton wins by 50% - 40% popular vote, and about 360 Electoral votes.
Networks will call it for her as soon as the west coast polls close.

Senate goes 52-48 Democratic
House Republicans retain a very narrow single digit lead.

The current Senate will confirm Garland.
Clinton's replacements for Justices Ginsberg and Breyer will also be confirmed in her first two years, thus a reasonable balance will be maintained.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

I've got several other bets out, but they are all even, in fact one will cost the other guy far much to collect (he has to travel to where I will be living).
Why are you so much more worried than the average Trumpinista?


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

I know you are but what am I?

It's over for me, Mrs. Truck and I cast our ballots after lunch.



-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

How was the line?

 

Nada. Lot was full of sign wavers, maybe a dozen people voting, waited maybe 2 minutes. IHB location on the beach.

I see the polls but I won't be comfortable until it's over honestly. We are seriously considering a move abroad if trump were to win. I know people throw that around, but we're serious. If he was elected then this isn't the country I thought it was. We would look closely at British commonwealth countries.

-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

The fringers are the majority of the GOP which is why Mr. Trump won the primary, but......................they are a definite minority as it pertains to the entire country. Each passing year adds more people to the progressive majority (millenials, college educated whites, Bernieites, blacks, asians and hispanics) while the old GOP guard dies off. This is why the GOP has not won a national election in recent years. It will only get harder if they don't become an inclusive party as their study cited after Romney lost in 2012.

PS - this is hard to see in a conservative county like Brevard.

I think i will wait for election day, so as to be part of the historic flood that sweeps Trump into office.

 

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

Tagged for future reference.

(BTW - you write that almost like you mean it!  Well done, counselor!)

-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

No problem, Bamboo. If Trump loses, I am going to catch hell no matter what. If he wins, I will dish it out no matter what. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. I accept that.

-------------------------
I :heart; Q

Naw. You will continue to catch hell because it is what you give.

It's not over.

Your chosen candidate needs you to get out and vote.

It's not over, this is just the start. Madame President will appoint President Obama to the SCOTUS, then in 8 years we will have Madame President Obama!

-------------------------
"I remember South Africa in the late 70's, sleeping on the beach at J-bay, smoking ganja with the blacks. On weekends we'd go to the pub in East London to drink beer and fight with the Afrikaners. They liked to fight, I liked to fight. It was a good time"

No, if you were going to vote for Donald, it's hopeless, just stay home.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

"Right now, 56 percent of Clinton voters say they are mainly for her compared to just 42 percent of the same voters who say they are voting against Trump. This 56 percent is the highest it's been all year in the ABC News poll, and it's been steadily climbing for Clinton since July. In the same survey, only 41 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him, while 54 percent say they are mostly voting against Clinton. Those numbers are about the same as they've been all year."
-538

I don't see how Trump wins with those kind of numbers


-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

The asskicking that is coming should be obvious, but I can't help but get the feeling that this is Romney 2.0. I'll bet FK, obx2, snipper and the rest of the fringers secretly believe Trump is going to crush and they are waiting to leave the woodwork and come on here Nov. 9 (29th?) and gloat.

Of course Romney 1.0 was actually kind of close. This. Is. Not.

No, in 8 years we will have Madame President Chelsea Clinton


-------------------------

Who is Keyser Soze?

Maybe in 16 years. It will be glorious

-------------------------
"I remember South Africa in the late 70's, sleeping on the beach at J-bay, smoking ganja with the blacks. On weekends we'd go to the pub in East London to drink beer and fight with the Afrikaners. They liked to fight, I liked to fight. It was a good time"

I'm hoping for a landslide to prove that point to myself.

-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

I don't think it will be a landslide even though the current polls may show otherwise. This may be the their last shot and they won't go away quietly.

I'm curious what the next move is for the GOP. Do they reform or fight an guerrilla war with the remnants of the white/right faction?

-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

"Democrats are crowing over and Big Media elites are predicting the demise of the GOP. To the elites, the GOP's services are no longer required. Republicans are superfluous, due to the fact the Democrats are the Party of the One Percent and the U.S. War Machine.

Obama apologists and Clinton supporters, you have been gamed. Worse, when confronted by the facts involved in the scam, you lash out in self-righteous fury and/or wit-deficient snark."
-Phil Rockstroh

-------------------------

Phil sounds like a self righteous asshole.

-------------------------
“It is the heart of US policy to use fascism to preserve capitalism while claiming to be saving democracy from communism “ - Michael Parenti

This guy better be Phil, otherwise the echo of Phil fills his head completely.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

According to a new poll today, a legitimate one, Trump now leads in Florida.

Ours is a state that elected "Dick" Scott governor, twice!

I can see it going for Trump.

I believe it will be a much closer race nationwide than what the current polls are showing.

Probably closer; agreed, but not close.

It won't be close to being close.  I