NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Satellite images indicate that the system located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become much better organized
throughout the day. The low-level center of circulation is now
well defined, and banding features have become better established in
all quadrants. The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. This makes the
system a tropical storm, Maria becomes the thirteenth named storm
in the Atlantic basin this season.

Maria is moving quickly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to remain in place but
weaken some, which should cause Maria to move west-northwestward at
a progressively slower pace through the forecast period. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official track forecast
is closest to the HCCA model. This forecast takes the core of
Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, and close to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 4 days.

The tropical storm is located within conducive environmental
conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and over
warm 29 deg C SSTs. Since these conditions are not expected to
change much, steady or even rapid strengthening is likely during the
next 3 to 4 days. Slight weakening is predicted by the end of the
forecast period due to some land interaction and a slight increase
in wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is raised significantly
from the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest
guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical
storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,
and additional watches will likely be issued tonight and Sunday.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

Oh fooking goody!

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Dora Hates You

Current model tracks have her going into PR as a Major!!

The guy who owns the rental house 2-doors-down from us has a home on St. John. He says that Irma fucked them raw, worse than Hugo or Marilyn.

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Dora Hates You

Farther along, Maria could "pinwheel" Jose into the NJ coast via the Fujiwara effect.  But that's foo far out to be an actual forecast.  

We have a long season ahead.
High octane heat in the Caribbean and GOMEX.

Yeah for Football and Hurricane season starting at the same time! Survived Irma with lots of yard damage but the house stood. Pool screen gone. Oh well. Yeah for living in Florida. Its fun here, right?!?

I was a little itchy when I saw the long range models showing Marie skimming Florida. But, now doesn't show that anymore.

Hoping for recurve and out in the Atlantic for more great surf! RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the
last advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum
flight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt. The
crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on these
data and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria
is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it
will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered
for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in
the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly
south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the
update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is
right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is
between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA
solution.

The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,
which could make it a prime candidate for significant
intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.
Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but
nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and
potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs,
some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall
replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as
a major hurricane on days 3 through 5. Because of Maria's small
size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to
the HWRF and HCCA models.


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Dora Hates You

Neat graphic linked by Mike's Weather Page.

https://www.facebook.com/mikes...55526680572367/?type=3

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Dora Hates You

waves for days! wish i was there : (

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R I P Mama G.

@Salt.And.Savagery.Fishing

@Laserwolf.Laserwolf

It is likely that after this one, PR is really going to be Tits Up. Likely direct hit by a 140 MPH Major.

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Dora Hates You

Ditto with a heavy heart....

I could barely believe the rate of intensification I was watching on the satellite loops and radar feed out of St. Martin yesterday and then the dead center crossing of Dominica.

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...

Hurricane Maria Summary

Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and
flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central
pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb. The
aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.

 

Color amplified cloud pattern -   2mile radius eye, 18mi radius eyewall .  A small, fast moving storm/tornado.  So.. one trip around this eyewall is 61.6n miles and that means it is spinning 2.4 times around an hour or 1 rotation every 25 minutes.  So, at 10mph forward speed -- PR landfall is in the eye for 30 minutes and 1 rotation of the eye and then another hour of eyewall speed winds - that top 145 above 35 feet -- or 81kt ground speed max.  

island is 110 miles long, so thats 10 hours of eyewall marching over the island with a 30 minute rest to regroup -- and the eyes small, so this keeps n/s/e/w eyewall on land.   figure 40 miles of intense wind = 4 hours of 81kt wind.  However, there are mountains and much of the island is elevated -- so the north side would take the brunt on the approach and the south side take the brunt on the tail end.  so would the mean only 2 hours of intense wind at each location ?   in this case a 3D model would convey the impact best.  

PR has elevations of 3500-4400' above sea level.

 http://www.digitaldataservices.com/images/galleries/custom_mapping//04_puerto_rico_custom_map.jpg

This adds an entirely new dimension to high winds and storms.  To dodge the intensity of the storm go to the south side first and in the eye move to the north side as quickly as possible.  with downed trees on roads its not as possible.  

So, will the 33-35' rule of 44% wind speed drop apply at all elevations or does that only apply at sea level, on level ground?  

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/28/2017 at 07:01 AM by TONYlookaround

Now 175 MPH.

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Dora Hates You

Just about everything.

 

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...

Tony is a dumbass 

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

It is too bad we can't teleport him into the path so he can sit on a beach and smoke his shit in the gentle breeze. 

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...

dkaye..  - were you asleep during physics in high school and drivers ed?  Kenetic energy doubles every 10 miles an hour in a car, so the same would apply to flying debris in a storm that hits stationary objects.  The point I make is that the reported wind speeds of the NHC are overstated and exagerated.  ground speed is 44% less, meaning that the impressive 150mph number they report is 66 mph overstated (fortunately).  The ground wind speed would be at a maximum of 84mph.  

I'm not sure the effect of the ground speed if a 12% grade is applied or the ground elevation ridge extends to 4,400'.  

 

Watching the fly over video of Dominica -  most buildings had roofs intact.  Poorly built, sheet metal structures blew apart, homes in hollars seemed to have little to no damage (from the plane).  That would be consistent with 84mph ground speed wind.   

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/20/2017 at 08:40 AM by TONYlookaround

If you don't like the colors used to depict the temperature of the cloud tops you can always just look at raw infrared. 

Either way it doesn't "look nice". As cyclones go it is terrifying and looks nothing like any category 1 or 2 ever has since we've been sending satellites up to look at such things. Nor has there ever been a 909 surface pressure an anything that "probably used to be called a cat 1-2". 

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...

Thanks for the information.. It will surely going to help us for future purpose.

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. The aircraft
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern
eyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt. In
addition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye
has fallen to 959 mb. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,
making Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The small eye is also apparent in radar data
from Martinique.

The initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous
motion. Other than that, there is little change in either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track. A high pressure area to
the north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward
motion for the next three days or so. After that, the high weakens,
which should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and
north-northwestward. The new forecast track is changed little from
the previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward
Islands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then
cross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h. The new track lies to the left
of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
ECMWF.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h. From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.
A hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 60.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.1N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 62.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.6N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 19.5N 68.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

Farm house in the cross hairs again.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

the funderground railroad never stops

-------------------------

sneedeker

Lot's more heat in these waters these days...

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH

Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Maria.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft
measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an
estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has
been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall
cycles and land interaction.

No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the
extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica
within the next hour or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0000Z 15.3N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

Landfall at Dominica, the first category 5 in its history.  

It could become Puerto Rico's first category 5 since the San Felipe Segundo/Okeechobee hurricane of 1928, the one that killed 2,500-3,000 people in Florida.  

This is terrible

Here she comes..

http://livestream.com/accounts/6180769/events/3168202

Radar without the advertisement from above link:

Puerto Rico Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge...rlay=11101111&loop=yes

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

It's crazy to think that a cat 5 storm is FIFTY times more destructive than a cat 1 storm

PR already has such a problem with their infrastructure anyway. The mayor of San Juan was crying earlier on CNN. So Sad.

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

it really is horrible. Having just gone through a small hurricane ourselves and having Gone without power /AC for just a few days it sucked so immensely I can't even fathom what a storm that powerful would be like.. I imagine one would be terrified for their life and their families lives.. and that doesnt take into account the sheer amount of destruction and suffering that will come in the next 24 hours.. its really heartbreaking

this is sad.

 

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/20/2017 at 01:57 AM by TONYlookaround

landfall right now in PR.  Pray for these US citizens!   

 

worse is  -- in the middle of the night.

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


landed with 150 mph.

Looks like the Puerto Rico Radar was taking out. Ugh. Poor Puerto Rico.

As of 5 pm Atlantic time (4 Eastern), Maria was 25 mi NNW of Aguadilla, category 2.  

It's going to very hard to recover from this. Very primitive conditions for probably six months.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Looks like it went corner to corner across PR any updates from Aguadilla?

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"Don't count the days, make the days count." -Ali
#rydyrstrong

all hype right tony? PR without power for 4-6 months and the "fake news" media made up this whole thing lol

hope you don't have any family down there 

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

more fake news 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-20170921-story.html

all these fake hurricanes sure seem to be making a mess of the carribean (dumb ass)

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

I had a friend who went to Guarabo to be with close friends and family. That's right by Caguas, where the eye went over. He is an ag student at UPR Mayaguez and has been staying at my farm to help maintain and keep the vines in check. He did fine through the storm but said it was some seriously intense shit. I have still not heard from my neighbors on whether my little tin roof wooden shack in the holler is still standing over in the Mayaguez mountainous region. Today is the anniversary of my purchase. Last year on this day, they had El Gran Apagon. The Milky Way viewing was spectacular and people kept their cool. PR is a very cohesive and mutually supportive society, especially in the countryside. The power outage last year lasted over a week and people were very calm throughout. My key set came with a Virgin Maria pendant. More than a few ironies. I still have no regret. Sure there are downsides to the society, but I have been met with open arms and blessings by each person I have met there. I look forward to moving there some day and doing everything I can to help improve the situation on the island.

Puerto Ricans are Americans, just as Virgin Islanders are Americans. I sincerely hope we show our love for them as part of our union and come to their aid. My next scheduled trip down is in November. I hope I have a home to stay in so that I can assist my neighbors anyway possible.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

El Nuevo Día seems as good a source as any.  One item from them:  "12:11 p.m. -Residentes de Isabela reportan daños en el pueblo y barrio La Marina. Inundaciones en las vías principales, barrio Jobos y entrada de La Cara del Indio. Árboles y cables de energía eléctrica en el suelo.

12:11 p.m. -Residents of Isabela report damage in the town and La Marina neighborhood.  Flooding in main streets, Jobos neighborhood and entranct of La Cara del Indio.  Trees and electric lines on the ground.

I think it may be the end for the great radio telescope in the haystack hills south of Arecibo.  It's been losing funding for years and would seem unlikely to get much funding for repairs.  Video from Utuado up in the mountains is discouraging.  

Edited: 09/22/2017 at 02:20 AM by ww

I have a good friend whose family lives in Utuado. One of my favorite places in PR. Her place is high above Rio Limon, but man oh man is that river powerful!

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Guajataca Dam may fail, so 70,000 people have to evacuate.  As if roads were in condition for that.  

Washington Post:  "The dam, built by the Army Corps of Engineers in 1929, suffered a "fissure," Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said in a news conference Friday. An estimated 70,000 people in the municipalities of Quebradillas, Isabela and part of San Sebastian could be affected if the dam collapses, he said."

Edited: 09/22/2017 at 05:29 PM by ww

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle
launched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the
surroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also
arrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based
on the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt
in the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in
diameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so
no eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear
is forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region
with less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors
should result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC
forecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more
days.

Satellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the
north-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical
ridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify
westward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be
strong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It
will however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance
continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the
NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that
time, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS
defining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the
eastern one. This makes the forecast a little more uncertain.
The NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the
solution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model
consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of
the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf
and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 24.1N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 28.5N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 29.7N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 31.7N 72.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 33.5N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 35.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

Woot!

GFS run this AM suggests Outer Banks get a hit or near miss

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

NE bahama buoy HUUUUUGEEEE 24+ feet!

INCOMMING....
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Going to be interesting to see how much worse the beach erosion will be locally.....

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

It got through the slot down south today.

Have sent a donation to the Salvation Army and would welcome info about what PR residents can use and how to get it to them.