Might get some juice here soon.....

Models for 99L.....hopefully it keeps curving north before the Bahamas

From Central Florida Hurricane:

The 0Z Euro is back to keeping 99L: East of the US, and weak until it is north of the Bahamas, this run has no landfall on the US.

The 6Z GFS run nearly loses 99L entirely, but possibly takes it over S. Florida/Keys as a depression a week from today, then it starts to get stronger in the Gulf before landfalling near the Alabama/Florida border on approx Sept 2nd.

A pretty big difference from yesterday, in short, still too soon to tell, but the latest eruo run is more positive for no US impacts than the last. With no development early on, there won't be a solid idea until pretty late this week. The GFS switched back to the west with it entering the gulf, so both models effectively flip flopped from their !2Z runs.

Until something develops or Recon gets involved models likely will be mostly flip flopping. In short, continue to watch closely.

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Dora Hates You

http://www.2ndlight.com/fusetalk/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=3&threadid=172226&enterthread=y

 

 

90L is the money maker..... possible cat 4 fishstorm...... but unfortunately potential for hard onshores per some models (the ridge that keeps it offshore)

Woot!

FIONA show some love

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

Does this mean it won't be flat?

I feel so out of shape from so little paddling this summer.  Time to play catch up and get some last minute pushups and situps in to get ready!

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Jesus invented surfing...
Matthew 14:22-33

www.facebook.com/churchonthebeach

 

Sadly, that does not help with paddle strength.

 

 

I usually start with this just to get active and do something, and then tie my leash around the pool railing and paddle on the shorty for as long as I can.  Right now that won't be very long, ha

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Jesus invented surfing...
Matthew 14:22-33

www.facebook.com/churchonthebeach

How does it NOT help???



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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

Physiology. 

Anything is better than nothing though.

 

Hey Rick Cain,

take the board out of the pool and start swimming laps

pull-ups would be a good land-based exercise......

Panda, Fiona is not the storm to be excited about

 

Took the words right out of my mouth stokedpanda..Apparently...lat, shoulder, chest, and core strength does not aid in paddling power? 

Push ups help with duck diving, otherwise go swim laps

Bong hits & 12 oz. curls always got me in prime surfing preparedness!!!

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Tubes, Boobs, & Doobs!!!

I save the 12oz curls for after or else I get too tired/lazy in the water!!!



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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

time to catch some waves boys whos ready to getttt it?

No idea how it happened, but I tried to put a shoe on this afternoon and discovered a bruise on the left foot.  Now, it's a shiner.  Will play with the camera. 

Anything that improves your fitness is better than nothing but we all know that nothing gets you in shape for surfing like surfing. I find push-ups help my pop-ups and running/biking helps the core and your O2 exchange rate. Just DO something!

It is frustrating that with all of my conditioning I get out in the mediocre surf we've gotten once a month, maybe 2 days each, this summer and it's like my 1st flipping day surfing all around.

Even if it is a little sloppy Friday - Sat get out there and think of it as conditioning. Next week's probably gonna be like drinking from a fire hose.



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Brother, when you get a minute, could I get a list of the words that trigger these fits?


Hey. Where are we going? (And what are we doing in a hand-basket?)

FROM: Central Florida Hurricane

Most striking about the 8/23 0z runs, is that there is quite a lot of convergence... However, the GFS and GFDL in particular may have initialized 99L too weakly, for as of 0700z, the system is coming together better than they seem to have advertised.

The trend of overnight improvement has actually been going on for several moons now, but tonight it finally looks to be "catching" enough that it just might stick. Another 6-18 hours should tell, and also, Recon is set to fly in today.

In the very near term, it looks as if shear over 99L is and will possibly continue to be relaxing, as troughiness and associated 20+ knots of westerly shear brushes by to its north and east. Afterwards, as the Low appears to be pulling just north of due west at a good clip, it could easily run into a pocket of high net-effective westerly shear by mid-week, which would argue for some impairment if it lasts too long. However, as by this time 99L may already be a tropical cyclone, the damage may be insufficient to prevent it continuing westward to northwestward (depending) as a named storm, or stronger (Lounge material at this point, but entirely plausible).

It is late in the week that the models are joining up together in remarkable fashion, for what is a somewhat convoluted pattern. That there is such unanimity given the relative complexity is reason to take note. Here is the 00Z breakdown:

GFS: High pressure builds in behind weak troffiness off east coast sending the remnant circulation of Fiona across central Florida, and pulling up a weak intensity open wave 99L by the hand into the Bahamas, and imparting extra vorticity in the process. There 99L becomes a TD... by next Thursday.
Odds: Seems unlikely owing to the recent and current organizational trends with 99L, and the forward speed of both systems.

ECMWF: Like the GFS, the Euro sends the remnant Fiona across Florida (more north), and grabs 99L. However, this happens both sooner, and with an initially stronger 99L wave. In this scenario, 99L becomes a TD this coming Saturday night, crossing south Florida Sunday night into Monday as a strong TS, runs up the west coast as a strong hurricane, is then picked up by a passing trof and now crosses north Florida from the west as a modest hurricane next Wednesday the 31st, running up the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, before being ejected northeast back out to sea as an intensifying Cat 2+ over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Thursday Sept 1st.
Odds:This looks more reliable than the GFS run above it. Plus, this is the ECMWF. However, all the usual disclaimers apply. Especially that far out!

CMC: Like the ECMWF, the Canadian starts out with a somewhat healthier 99L, and also retains a somewhat more coherent Fiona (or remnant Fiona). The two meet up well north of the Bahamas this coming Friday night, with x-Fiona imparting substantial additional vorticity into 99L, with 99L becoming a solid TS that is driven into Georgia, and then running rapidly inland up the east coast until merging with a passing trof on the 31st while over Virginia.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and perhaps as plausible as the ECMWF run - the main caveat being that this is the CMC, and also all the usual disclaimers apply this far out!

HWRF: Starting with a somewhat stronger 99L than the GFS, but not as much as either the ECMWF or CMC, but with a far more resilient TD Fiona, the 0z HWRF develops 99L into a TD just north of Puerto Rico this Wednesday afternoon, intensifying into a strong TS and then minimal hurricane just north of the easternmost Bahamas this Friday night, and then rapidly intensifying into a Major Hurricane while turning left (west) into the westernmost Bahamas this Saturday night.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and unfortunately, only slightly less possible than either the ECMWF or CMC's less bullish alternatives; definitely within the realm, so keep alert. Usual disclaimers apply!!

GFDL: The GFDL seems to have had difficulty resolving nuances with 99L all along, and unsurprisingly looks to be initializing this run with an amorphous and very broad low, which is arguably too weak for consideration, at all. In the interest of sharing it however, this model's run tries to develop 99L into a TD in the north-easternmost Caribbean this Wednesday, opens back up into a wave as it passes over the DR (likely due to a weak system traversing brutal terrain), and then by this Sunday the open wave of the former TD teams up with remnants of former Fiona to create a large, amorphous blob of wet and bluster weather off the southeast coast.
Odds: Looks even less likely than the GFS, but should 99L not "stick" and pull it off within the next 36 hours, I would start to give both the GFDL and GFS some credence, despite their overly weak initializations.



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Dora Hates You

Ha, just logged on to post that graphic 

LOTS of variables at play, but things can get crazy.......  the one constant seems to be hard onshores while we have multiple sizeable groundswells......  I may cry

If that graphic is correct, that is the ideal location for a macker storm to send us well overhead SE lines pushin up the beach (Bertha was in that same location but without the strong highpressure / onshores)

but 945 MB..... that's a STRONG cane

stay tuned kiddies

The HWRF model is looking like we could get Butt F'd by 99L (Hermine)!!!!!!

Latest from Central Florida Hurricane

Morning Model runs (6z):

The GFS still shows nothing really developing with 99L, actually takes the remnants of Fiona west toward Florida and merges that and 99L together while moving over Florida as a rainmaker (no real development). And doesn't organize it in the Gulf. This scenario seems unlikely since it possibly is overdoing Fiona. The ridge is strong in this run though, pushing anything to the west.

The HWRF is only out to 72 hours at the time I wrote this, and it's showing it starting to organize, only noticible different so far from the last run is that it's slightly faster than before.
Saturday (108 hours out) it is approaching/at major hurricane status just east of the Central Bahamas.

The final frame of the HRWF (Sunday morning) has it moving generally WNW (turning more toward due west) just along the northern edge of Abaco island in the Bahamas winds are around 135MPH. It's a bit more northwest than the prior run, but similar strength.

The atmosphere around it in this forecast is very favorable for development, ridging is strong too, likely will get a bit more north then hard west looking at it. The ridge setup in this forecast is one we haven't seen with a hurricane/storm in a long while last one similar is the setup from 2004 that drove Frances/Jeanne westward. (not implying it will do this, since this is just a model forecast.) At this point i'm hoping Fiona interferes more like the GFS implied and keeps this system weak. Also until we actually have a formed system, keep in mind we are just looking for trends. Right now there are good trends (GFS) and bad trends (Euro and especially HWRF)

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Dora Hates You

I saw the blocking high possibly setting up too, and that freaks me out. I lived in Jupiter during Frances-Jeanne-Wilma and it sucked.

Yes, blocking high = onshore winds + carnage

 

 

99L smells alot like Andrew!!!

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Tubes, Boobs, & Doobs!!!

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

USAF plane finds tropical wave has elongated & poorly defined circulation. Showers/thunderstorms disorganized. #99L pic.twitter.com/KFV1A39gZV

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 23, 2016

Invest 99 is worth keeping an eye.  Every model is putting it dangerously close to us.

 

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If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing the bat.

99L reminds me of Erika last year. The one that was supposed to hit Florida and never organized and died around PR/Hispaniola.
Not time to start panicking yet.

True. I just don't like seeing all the models so close in agreement.  Gives me a reminder to go through my checklist.

 

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If you want to hit a home run, you have to swing the bat.

Actually, 99L looks alot more like Katrina did, than Erika, but either way, its a focal point for Florida fo shizzle!!!

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Tubes, Boobs, & Doobs!!!

Not the best source, but Five Thirty Eight has a story on Hermine, a.k.a. Invest 99L

That is actually a very fine source. Eric Holthaus is a respected met.



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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

Latest GFS model run = LOLOLOLOLOL 

 

they're not though....... that's the headscratcher

 

either way, we'll prob get fuct by winds, tides or both, but just the CHANCE of some juice has me in a better mood.

Choppy small waves







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Time and tide wait for no one.....

I hear LA could use the rain.



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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

 

You just gave yourself some bad karma

99L still not organized very well and being sheared.

Any change from lake flat piddly limp waves has me stoked. Even if all I get is sloppy crap on the inside on the fish.

I wake up every day - daylight's an hour away and it's already 99 with the heat index. 1.0 - 1.3 on the closest buoy. Ahhh another bike ride in the sauna.

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Brother, when you get a minute, could I get a list of the words that trigger these fits?


Hey. Where are we going? (And what are we doing in a hand-basket?)

Latest models have Gaston coming farther west than originally thought. Maybe some juice from him???

That would nice if that happens!! Either way I'll be out with the other poor saps with delirium tremens. Drinking what ever be pours.




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Time and tide wait for no one.....

99L still not doing anything.

Slowly the hype train is loosing steam.

this train sucks......

The surfline LOLA model looks pretty grim. Nasty storm moving up to Cocoa before turning out on Saturday 9/10. I'm sure it will change 2 weeks out. Time to keep an out out for a close one though

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Time and tide wait for no one.....