Seriously though, Models can be a little crazy a week out but this time it looks like our weather pattern might allow this to happen. Blocking high coming out of Eastern Canada will pump the low and help push it south and keep it out there a while, with a nice big fetch in our swell window.

Model runs have been pretty consistent generally putting something like this out there, and that's really what we look for in long range models. not specifics, but general trends. so maybe there's hope after all.

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

You can count on the GFS to back off on the strength of this low with each 6hr update.

-------------------------
https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast

probably, the euro is not as strong but similar so at least we'll get something

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

ill be in indo....so sorry to miss this....muahahahahahaha!

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! "its going to be terrible"

-------------------------
the ocean is my medication

Thanks for your forecasting

I'm to the point where making plans, other than surfing, gives me anxiety. I have good freinds (who don't partake) coming to town then, which I would normally be stoked about but nowww.. Bloody hell, are we destined to an existance of hesitance to make plans, and reluctance to follow through with them because it just might hinder one good surf.. Friends, weddings, family gigs, girlfriend oriented tasks..it's all possible pissing in the wind (& onshore at that).. What have we done to ourselves

-------------------------

'Out of step' - Ian Mackaye

+1

It's called a salt water fix. Essential.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Chest high+ NE surf coming for several days. Low tide will be early also.

I've gotten used to doing everything last minute.   LOL

Everything is a 'maybe' until a day or two before. if there's no waves, then it's balls to the wall to get anything/everything done. if there's waves, then it's back tracking and trying to find a way to fit in surf and do whatever later.

 

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Good, surf will bring in lots of plastic to keep the Saunterers busy later in the week.

My wife's bday party (40th) is next sat. Her actual BDay is Sunday.

 

i hope this swell arrives during the week....I can skip work.

-------------------------

https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

http://youtu.be/kKbkj0wXHi4?list=UUTFr7KdJii2D22wJb_VvGqg

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

The GFS sucks with transitional periods like we're in now just getting into fall. Looks like we'll get some waist high swell out of this distant low pressure if any swell at all.

-------------------------
https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast

Look at you poo-pooing the GFS! Ha! So waist high swell from this? We will see...

pepper

Its the life we live, its the existence we have chosen. Its taken me many, many years to get my wife, job and family to understand this. ( they still don't but have some how come to be tolerant )

I have shared calendars with several family , work chorts and surf buds. I often put down something like "possble surf day". Quite often I will email out the forecast from various sources just to start giving people a heads up. On rare occasion its just not predictable and , well, when ya gotta go, ya gotta go.....


So very hard to prioritize : to surf or not to surf , that is the question......

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

I don't think it's that much of a problem for those who live in areas where the waves are consistent. When it's surfable whenever you have free time, and don't have to schedule things around a waist-high swell.

But I get what you're saying. To my regret, I've flaked out on family and friends and have gotten behind on household duties because of waves. Nothing major, but enough to be embarrassed about it as I look back on those situations.

^^what he said. 

If you live beachside you can sneak in a quickie session and still keep plans with family.  For a FL surfer it's all about proximity to waves.

How is the hype shaping up?

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Right, about that.. Anyone? ..MSW (for sebas) is interperted as: Up until Sunday midday/ afternoon looking pretty 'florida-rific' (not in a good way), then picks up from there and Monday morning is the place to be, should be waves through Tuesday.. Supposedly onshore through the ordeal

(I didn't mean to distract from the subject at hand with the disease we're all aware of. But if anyone caught the little poem in septembers ESM 'intercourse/ discourse' that pretty much somes it all up.. if not find one and read it, it'll do you good)

-------------------------

'Out of step' - Ian Mackaye

I'll go out on a limb here and say that it could be 6' @ 10 sec average.

All models are in good agreement now that within 48 hours wind will be blowing with a good fetch.


http://forecast.weather.gov/sh...?mz=anz905&syn=anz899
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



ANZ899-300845-
506 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS
E ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
NEAR BERMUDA WILL DRIFT N...TO JUST E OF THE NRN WATERS TUE NIGHT
AND WED...BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WED NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE E FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



ANZ905-300845-
EAST OF 69W TO THE HAGUE LINE BETWEEN 1000 FM AND 39N-
506 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


TONIGHT
SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

TUE
E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

TUE NIGHT
E TO NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS.

WED
NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS SE.

WED NIGHT
NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS SE.

THU THROUGH FRI
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SE.

FRI NIGHT
W TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO
10 FT.

SAT
NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9
FT.

SAT NIGHT
S WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

Given that I am going back to work for a month away from here in sure y'all will have good waves half the time I'm gone at least. Still greatful to live here and get some waves finally. The last month I've put in more water time in 2 given days than several months in Texas. It is Florida but be greatful for where you live! Hope y'all score while I'm gone. See you in the water next month....p.s I'm still looking for a roomate. See my thread in the for sale section  

Ograbac is my hero forecaster of the day.

 

Hope you're on target!!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

In my first post I was referring to the original post by jwieland, not every single forecast made throughout. Also it's early days but I believe we are forecasted to have surf all week which Ograbac forecasted so it is still early days. We definietly got and are getting long period swell which is better than the above quote.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 10/06/2014 at 11:53 AM by daner

I'll tell you, I really never thought the swell would be pounded down that much before it got here. Funny though, I had my doubts from the beginning. The reason why I stated I was going out on a limb.

Buoys were cranking in New England area, Bermuda and Carolinas.
The closer the swell got, the smaller it got. Winds were blowing from the W and SW at 20+ knots w/ small W swell pushing against the NE swell.

I ought to look better at the opposing winds next time. Geesh.

Forget the beef... Where's the waves????

My wife's Birthday is Saturday but she may have brunch plans! Hope this comes together.

sometimes you get lucky. I do have a wedding to attend saturday. but not sunday. 

Just to confirm, you all know I'm saying about 6' on the buoy, right?

Watch it be really small. Pffft.



Edited: 09/30/2014 at 06:23 PM by ograbac

You guys crack me up! But I agree with PepperDeath also....
It's all about the surfing...

-------------------------
Be Joyful because you have Hope, be Patient when trouble comes, Pray at all times. Romans 12:12

Everyone park at FinGurus place!!!!!!

-------------------------
Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

KONA!!

-------------------------
SK8 AND DESTROY

HUEY!

-------------------------

"Man is the only creature who refuses to be what he is" a.camus

I'm in agreement ograbac, the longboard will be stay at home

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

This news should be delivered by a "meteorologist" that looks like:



-------------------------

Not looking more than waist to chest now on models,they were looking stronger yesterday.You know how 150hrs and beyound is magic 8 ball guessing!!!

-------------------------

Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Get hyped on this small bump because the first half of October is looking pretty bleak. 20-30mph winds off New England isn't going to amount to much here for Sunday-Tuesday but at least it should be surfable.

-------------------------
https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast

All I need are some tasty waves and a cool buzz, and i'll be fine. 

High offshore winds may kill some of it.

NWS
AMZ001-012045-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W
431 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014


.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS TODAY THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU EVENING...REACH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



AMZ111-012045-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
431 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014


TODAY
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS.

THU
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

THU NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

FRI
E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

FRI NIGHT
S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...SHIFTING TO S TO SW 10 TO
15 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

SAT
W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

SAT NIGHT
NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

SUN
NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

SUN NIGHT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 5 TO 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.

$$

No hype here!! this is what's going on right now, swell's are being generated and heading southwest towards Florida.

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

Nice Fetch!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Won't  be any denial going on ,looking smaller and smaller as it gets closer to Sunday .Waist High to chest w N winds 10-15mph!! Hope I'm wrong but all models are showing decent fetch with not much size for two days then real small like obey says!!!

-------------------------

Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Edited: 10/01/2014 at 11:14 PM by IHBlocdogg

Within the 48hr mark it is changing quickly. We should get some good size but may be short lived.

This L is not as typical as a normal cold front.

Wait and see mode.

3-4' @ 11 seconds sunday

 

 

 

 

-------------------------

get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Waves are coming, arrival time-pm Saturday Downfall cold front/north winds coming for Sunday

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

temp maximas hoy!!!!

-------------------------


If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Good news today!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 330 miles
south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing gale force
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is
merging with a frontal system and is not expected to acquire
tropical cyclone characteristics. Little motion of this system is
expected during the next few days as it interacts with and becomes
absorbed by an upper-level low approaching from the northeast coast
of the United States. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Looks like the hype machine may crank out some fun waves this weekend and next week. PFS!

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

si, ella se ve bien en azul....

 

I just noticed there is gonna be a reverse cape shadow on this swell...looks like melbourne and south gonna see much larger than cocoa /cape canveral... but I'm wondering if Playlinda will get full swell??? 

-------------------------

get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Reverse cape shadow? As opposed to the regular cape shadow. Yes Playlinda will get full swell plus some.

 

That *is* the cape shadow. A reverse cape shadow would be the beaches north of the cape being blocked by it

How long does it take again from s. Hatt?? 

Its 5@11.8 

nope. reverse cape shadow would be a backwards S on superman's cape and NO blockage.... discuss,

-------------------------
Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

the buoy 225 NM South of Cape Hatteras has been holding 5ft+ @ 11 sec since 2:50pm Friday afternoon SATURDAY WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS. A MODERATE CHOP ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

..,bam!!

Ping ....on the 120

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

No waves yet. Winds are howling off shore out on the buoys. Go back to sleep.

May see some little bump around 1pm

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Offshores/West winds are killing it.

possible NW windswell for soflo? Hm. 

What site has the wind map Posted above?

Global Wind Map

-------------------------

"Man is the only creature who refuses to be what he is" a.camus

 

this thread deserves one more bump for wishful thinking

 

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Looks like the forecast panned out pretty good down here. Glad I made the early call. hardly ever works out. LOL

it was super inconsistent though but some fun ones came through. Wind got on it around noon.  Northern PBC was more consistent. Chest high, some bigger at times, and some smaller..... It'll last a couple more days in the waist high range.

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

It was chest to head set at NSI but plenty N winds ripping down the beach,got a few fun ones!No one got denied though haha

-------------------------

Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Yep no swell here

-------------------------
The Wavecaster

James,

you think it will break through the high tide in Pbc in the am?  Work got in the way this morning so I missed it

That was crap. And with that we can end the long range swell hype thread.

AT the right spot it will. Buoys actually picking back up a bit and direction good for us, NNE-NE

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

 I think it lived up to the hype here

-------------------------

WPTV NewsChannel5/Fox 29
Meteorologist/Surf Forecaster
Environmental Reporter
Palm Beach County, Florida

Snapchat: Surfnweatherman
http://instagram.com/surfnweatherman
https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Surfin-Weatherman/

Look at the surfin weathermans original post...never said Brevard would be the call. Super fun in my backyard this morn from 7-10 high tide and all! Good call jwieland!!

-------------------------

yeaaa buddy

Alright James I'm desperate I'm gonna give it a go.  Cams looking flat

The swell was good as predicted. You certainly cannot call wind conditions far in advance. This was a good call but the winds didn't cooperate in CFL. Unfortunately the swell didn't hit early enough to coincide with the offshore winds on Saturday. Still caught a few fun ones on Sunday though.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Swell was good as predicted? The 20 miler peaked 3.3 ft at 12 seconds. What gave South Florida the waves yesterday was more north wind swell generated from the front moving down and high pressure filling in with 4-5 ft of NNE windswell. Had little to do with the low Wieland was mentioning at the start of this post other than adding some reinforcing waist high swell underneath the wind swell. Palm Beach County was the outlier and looked waist to infrequent chest/shoulder with decent conditions for the early morning hours yesterday.

-------------------------
https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast

There was chest high surf yesterday in CFL even with the NNE wind ripping it up.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Did you not read the quotes? Chest high + surf for days was claimed. 6 ft at 10 seconds is head high to overhead surf.

-------------------------
https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast