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Surf Hard Live Long. Peace Out

hmmmmmmm... looks promising for my quick "biz trip" to a nearby caribbean island woot woot

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"Don't count the days, make the days count." -Ali
#rydyrstrong

Never too early to board in July, thanks for the hope, still plenty of room on this train

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Brevard Surf Report

Nice fetch baby!

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

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Surf Hard Live Long. Peace Out

I went to this website and this clown is claiming 'largest swell event of the year setting up' Really? Who is this person and why is he posting 192hr model forecasts? A better question may be who actually pays attention to this garbage? Worthless...

Ah anti-hyping!  Very clever....

"Who is this person and why is he posting 192hr model forecasts?"

 

He is Mr. Conductor.  A valued member of the Hypetrain Staff.

 

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

looks like it's from DaBuh

Just went from 5 o'clock to noon!

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

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Surf Hard Live Long. Peace Out

Hope/Hype! that's all we got, don't count out what DaBuh is saying--https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OQxTMlunS5A

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The Wavecaster

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

May be fairly small. At this point, the fetch will be pointed more toward Caribbean.
All models are in good agreement though.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


(Update 7/26: Models have changed a little biit and gradually have more fetch pointed our way. Changes will occur daily until we get about 3 days from it. Currently, the L looks to be more of a UL.)


Edited: 07/26/2014 at 05:46 AM by sirfir

No, not the swell event of the year! Believe me continue to follow the site and you will see. This is one ranks right up with the tipper!! They do like it when they post so far out and it actually comes together in REAL TIME forcasting. Btw there's a text messaging that's brand new, seems like some good deals too!

SOME HOPE!! JUST DON"T SOUND THE ALARM YET! Dabuh has it under control!... Stay tuned folks!!

I've seen his 'forecasts' in the past. Nothing but a model reader with no meteorological skill. Doesn't even talk about surf size just uses vague references like 'surf alert conditions' and 'major swell event'. That being said, he definitely says on his facebook page that the ridge and inverted trough/low combination will produce the biggest surf of the year. That is just wrong.

As for your image...imagine that! The GFS develops a tropical wave into a cyclone in late July/early August...better wax up our boards! GFS is always right...just like when it (and DaBuh) thought we were going to have a tropical cyclone develop in the NW Caribbean in June. That verified about as well as his other 'forecasts'. 

I'll give props to Tiptime for his forecasts but this guy isn't in close to the same league.

August 9-10th swell hype.

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The Wavecaster

too***; to is a preposition, too is for use when something is in addition to or in excess

Edited: 07/27/2014 at 04:49 PM by vanishSurf

It's looking better this afternoon !!Come on baby,give us some surf!!!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

ready to put leave in  lol

Yea the txt is good but a bit tooo much.. DaBuh

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Surf Hard Live Long. Peace Out

Ummm Sooo I wan't to early on on this one

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Surf Hard Live Long. Peace Out

Stevea you seeing this? August 4th Mega new hype!!

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The Wavecaster

Well damn that took some time!! And what is error code 189??? really I"M SORRY but, WHAT DID I POST  that deserves no explanation?? 

Can't a guy be excited about surf and surf forcasters nailing it!!!!!! really??

so confused????

 

No but really, hell yea!!! I  have been watchin this one!! To all be safe!! before this gets to deep for some readers.

Already have the next set of dates I need off from the job. What's behind it??? Waters have started to change down there.

Waves starting the 6th ish?? Whacha say tipper? tide and wind well, we won't mention that yet!!!

I'll take anything to avoid having to surf New Smyrna Inlet!!!!

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

I love the hype keep it coming

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JMA

Invest 93L? Surfline bumped the forecast starting next Tue / Wed to 2-3 from flat.

NSB was damn good this am, course about 125 other people knew that also...

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

So September is starting in late july / early August this year...

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

watch out everyone, here comes the orlando crowd, haha..couldn't resist

I paid the meter, its a done deal-enjoy!

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The Wavecaster

too SOON to call it ....a ... "hot dog"? swell ??? x marks the spot. u know,...

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

And the Miami crowd! When you hear people in the lineup speaking spanish, snaking, screaming, and throwing all surf etiquette and rules out the window you know where their home break is (sobe)- don't worry i don't do that

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Welcome to lake SoBe
www.dadecosurf.com

Atlantic Sat

7/29/14 @ 8am

Several interesting features.

* right off the north Florida coast

* 2 areas between the Leewards and Africa
* Persistent spinner to the West of Portugal



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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Wave train week ahead

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The Wavecaster

The past several runs of the GFS model bring the system north of Puerto Rico this weekend but the track guidance that far out is prone to significant errors. Regardless, the earliest we would expect to see surf from the system would be around next Monday so we have plenty of time to closely monitor this disturbance over the coming days.

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Fell apart last night,but still should come back to life here soon hopefully.Lot of models have it coming towards FLA now if it stays weak!Too early to watch models,this weekend will give us a lot better idea!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Edited: 07/29/2014 at 07:59 AM by IHBlocdogg

Go look at Magic Seaweed's Florida wind/period/swell forcast maps for next monday and tuesday, That will get you hyped! I'm feeling sick already!

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Ah, religion, bigotry dressed up as morality.

Your basically saying go look at a website based out of the UK to forecast florida waves .Its wayyyyyyyy to early to even guess on what it's gonna do!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Going to be a long week! But, least we should have at least 4 to 5 days of surf. I  will be going crazy if Big B doesn't make that turn! Looking like a low tide for the dp and that very nice high tide push for lunch break! 

Looks like I may be going on a very deserved 4 day "Staycation" next week 

I am hoping that there will be good surf for everyone soon.  I will try to help with this.

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Glad to be here!

That's why if you please, I am on my bendin' knees,Bertha don't you come around here anymore.can't help but to think of a dead tune , cmon Bertha !!!

We had a long run, running to your (swell) window!

 

bertha (feel free) to come around here anymore.

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

Woke this morning to an increase in percentage:

Ive made the sacrifice for you guys. Im off to NY for a funeral. 21 hour drive each way. Wont be back Until tuesday night. Lets hope Bertha sticks around until Wednesday for my extra day off work.

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Until it makes it past PR I wouldn't cancel any plans,it has a long way to go before it's even a decent storm.Has a day to develop before reaching 30-40kts sheer that might ruin our whole party....This year hurricane season could be a lot of proof be gone storms!!fingers crossed!!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

I have to say poof be gone might happen! Saw couple reports, cool waters going to suck the energy right out, and decreasing in size once it finallly heads north past pr....  Ah sh.. to soon for all that.

Cuz stop off in n.c. on the way home! break up the trip, swell up there tues and wed!!

New Train, different Tracks...!

So, weather channel has a hurricane over Tennessee this evening:



Too late to jump on the lake hype train?

edit: they caught the error by morning. I wonder what sort of computer glitch caused a hurricane symbol to show up over Tennessee?

Edited: 07/31/2014 at 04:47 AM by Northjetty101

Hype train derailed?  MSW keeps downgrading the forecast.  Doesn't look like much now.  Perhaps this anti-hype will help cause an upgrade in the forecast?

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Jesus invented surfing...
Matthew 14:22-33

www.facebook.com/churchonthebeach

Wavecaster


If Steve gets this one right I will dump my Surfline subscription .

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

This train ride gets shittier by the day

Back up to 70% chance as of Thursday, 8am, NOAA .. But that's why it's called a "forecast", not seeing the future. Give Wavecaster a break. Ask him Tuesday....

I'm with GsusSurfs now-Hype train derailed? not looking promising from what I'm seeing now, if Bertha develops? long range models show her falling apart east of the Bahamas early week--Tues-Wed waves should bump up some but wouldn't expect much more then (east coast scale) of 3-4ft.

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The Wavecaster

tip

I'll take it! thanks...

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

It's so funny people making plans for a storm that never developed yet to anything over 35kts .It has a lot of sheer ahead of it ,which isn't good.Maybe the storm behind it has more potential !!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Arthur never developed over 35 kts while it was in our swell window and I'm sure glad I planned for that!

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

gone

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Glad to be here!

noaa showing long period here nxt wed-ish animation Looks to last a few days. Wednesday looks to be a low wind day

Tomorrow and Saturday will be the day to see "if" it comes back to life,it's on life support now .The swirl was moving so fast it left it naked with no storms but it looks as NHC believes it will come back to life as a TP at best.All I was saying is I wouldn't hold any forecast to firm at this point because the "storm" never has even became a "storm" it's all throwing shit at the fan at this point!!Nothing certain!!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

This is what hype line has to say on tonight's forecast!!

Satellite observations confirm an area of 25-30kt+ winds on the northern and eastern side of this system during the past 24hrs. Now that the system has tracked further west the swell currently being generated by the system is being largely blocked for CFL -- and obviously SFL as well -- by the northern Leeward Islands and portions of the Bahamas. We will continue to track the winds and resulting swell generated by this system over the next 24-48hrs and confirm our calculations with the western Atlantic buoy network. 

We are expecting ESE swell generated by this system to move in through the day on Tuesday and mix with the lingering, more locally-generated SE/ESE windswell for breaks north of the Bahamas shadow. The island blockage outlined above will result in the surf being strongest for breaks in NFL with a smaller version making it into select breaks in CFL (smallest south). Even though this isn't looking like a significant swell event there should be plenty of fun waves at the better spots and compared to what we have seen over the past week or two a welcome reprieve from the small, dribbly surf. Lingering ESE windswell/swell will be on the fading trend on Wednesday but should again offer fun waves during the morning hours, especially for breaks in NFL. Lingering ESE trade windswell is on tap for back half of next week. 

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Strange water temps out there. Right now the Atlantic seems to be a place storms go to die. But I'm with you. There's energy there and that will make something better than what we have going on right now.

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Brother, when you get a minute, could I get a list of the words that trigger these fits?


Hey. Where are we going? (And what are we doing in a hand-basket?)

Back to 80% chance for development tonight for invest 93L.

Disturbance 1: 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 pm EDT Thu Jul 31 2014 ...
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


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Brother, when you get a minute, could I get a list of the words that trigger these fits?


Hey. Where are we going? (And what are we doing in a hand-basket?)

Thanks, Tip. I'll settle for 3-4' anytime!

As of 11pm it's officially ts bertha

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Welcome to lake SoBe
www.dadecosurf.com

ill honestly settle for anything at this point. its my last week before im back on my work grind.

I think it can, I think it can...

 

"gone"

 

 

but not forgotten.

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Glad to be here!

Still won't be a huge swell maker for-CFL enjoy!

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The Wavecaster

....ohhhh quit it would ya,..., crown not captain..do it for Buck

Current forecast track puts it in our swell window for about 6 hrs on Monday as a tropical storm. 

If it survives that long.

Current visible satellite loop shows surface circulation running out from under convection. 

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...

Woot. Yeah for waves!

OBX

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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

Eleuthera

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Water dissolving...and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean

John Arie Jr says, "It's going to be HUGE!"

Path looks pretty similar to Irene.

 

http://imgur.com/VK8tlWN

Provided that it survives the open swell window Bertha looks to crank on mon pm through tues pm. The swell delay would filter into weds I'd think. SE swell coming in to those facing beaches turning into a SE / NE mix on the back end which will then hit the NE swell window beaches, like, yours truly. But the NE will be smaller than the SE.

Tipper's calling tues the peak, but I may go out on a limb and second guess that call. Could well be weds morning as peak and possibly stay good throughout the day.

But how big?

Tipper's not his usual optimistic self this go around. Maybe just for the sake of anti-hype good luck for us all. ;-)

Waist, Waist to Rib?

That's it?



Edited: 08/02/2014 at 03:29 AM by Northjetty101

If this storm doesn't slow down, I don't believe this swell will be anything to write home about. My prediction is one marginal session for the shortboard and a couple decent longboard sessions. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it with the current forecast.

Shit, the forecast track track changed this morning. Further to the east and increased forward motion. Not looking good for a NE backlash.....

But Tipper's tues still looks like a good call:





Edited: 08/02/2014 at 06:05 AM by Northjetty101

Most surf models are based on the GFS. The GFS right now doesn't even show winds on 50 mph or even a closed low on Bertha. In turn, the GFS is correct on almost showing no closed low, but the winds to the N of the storm are trop. storm force out to appx 110 miles. 120 miler is picking up slightly along with the 20 miler as we speak. My guess is a lot of chunky shoulder high peaks by tomorrow sometime through Monday as there is a fetch ahead of Bertha.

Something is better than nothing!

I just got back from Costa Rica yesterday. So, now the post costa rica depression kicks in. Only cure...Hurricane Surf...

COME ON BERTHA!!!

Sorry south of the cape!!Bahama blockage!!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Im here in PR and Bertha finally kicked it pretty hard late today, good SE push behind the storm, lots of rain and squalls with wind. you guys in CFL will get waves, chest high and glassy is a nice call.

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aurasurf.com

East Bahama buoy building ....

08 03 10:50 am - - 8.9 @ 10
08 03 09:50 am - - 9.2 @ 11
08 03 08:50 am - - 8.2 @ 11










-------------------------
Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

...BERTHA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2014 ATLANTIC
SEASON...

Just in time to peak over the Bahamas and send us some waves! I hope...

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

WELL LET"S BRING THIS BACK UP SHALL WE!!

bob3000 Posts: 13548 Joined: 07/13/2004

a better question IS : how did y'all MISS the hype-hope train?  0/5  ------------------------- Art is making something out of nothing and.... NA we haven't lost site yet! GET UR TOES IN THE SAND NOW!!!!! BIG B is NOT DONE YET!!

All aboard the hype train!!!

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

Why the negativity. All the downer stuff you wrote throughout this thread was dead wrong.

Surfed out from great waves south of the cape. HA

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Your right ,forcasters were dead wrong.Glad you guys scored.

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Learn to read a buoy and check your winds and tides!!!

I am glad the forecasts where wrong. I took the day off and turned my arms into Jell-O. FUN!!!!!!!!!!

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RUSS-D'S PHOTOGRAPHY