"A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump's sizable and enthusiastic base - perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country - won't abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don't necessarily care about some of the controversies that the "mainstream media" treats as game-changing developments.

It's an entirely reasonable theory. We live in a highly partisan epoch, and voters are usually loyal to politicians from their party. Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn't always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn't supported by the evidence. To the contrary, There's been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump's strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an "enthusiasm gap" that works against Trump at the midterms.

The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP's initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters."
538



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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

So only 21 or 22 percent of the electorate are commie sympathizers. Refreshing!

Soon he will be down to just the basket of deplorables.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Edited: 05/24/2017 at 11:15 AM by WG

Yuck

It will be less when the alt right sees him bowing before Islamist extremists.

Isn't Nate Silver one of the eggheads who predicted that Clinton would trounce Trump? I believe he is. And he is wrong in that article to. Trump has lost very few of his supporters.

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I :heart; Q

He didn't figure in Trump being in Russia's hands. So shut the hell up TrumpapBlo.

No.

His analysis of the polling trends was near perfect. He correctly documented the Comey effect and the very close race it became after that.

A few days before the election, I heard a high level local Democratic operative say she had severe "Nate Silver induced nausea" because Nate was predicting that it was going to be very close and that although Hillary would clearly win the popular vote by more than 2 million, some of the state level data was poor and noisy and Trump could win the Electoral college.

His poll trend analysis is the best there is out there.

And of course Trump is losing support. He is making a fool of himself on twitter, can't do shit right and is breaking most of his campaign promises, especially those made to the poor white base.

No brainer, really.

-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Edited: 05/24/2017 at 12:54 PM by WG

wow, the comparisons to Tricky Dick are incredible. There are still a lot people who continue to be in denial. No one likes a "loser". A few will go with the ship. Defend and deny to the end.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Then you few continue to spew

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...ob_approval-6179.html

Take the fake Rasmussen out and it's even lower.

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I was right.