Models are hinting a low directly off Florida coast late weekend and early next week. Sunday april 9th.

NWS Melbourne discussion:

The overall pattern shift should push a cool front south into
north and central FL this weekend, ending the spate of well-above
normal max temps, while supporting higher rain chances esp on Sun.
It is possible given the new ECMWF solution that the front hangs
up across central FL with prospect for additional precip into
early next week. While rain would be beneficial for many, there is
unusually low confidence in the wind/rain/temp forecast for Mon-
Tue as the GFS solution sweeps the front well south of the area
with stronger north to northeast winds around low pressure areas
just east of the area.

Wed/afternoon/update

Monday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)...Upper ridge
collapses into Sunday as a shortwave trough pushes through the
deep south and across N FL. As this lead trough slides offshore,
additional short wave energy drops S/SE and reinforces this
feature off the SE seaboard into Monday. Differences arise in the
placement and orientation of the trough axis/upper low relative to
the SE CONUS/FL with the 12Z GFS operational model now farther
west with the cutoff low situated across the NE Gulf/FL big bend
region. The 12Z ECM has trended eastward with the cut-off upper
low and a trapped sfc low just to the east of Florida by mid to
late week.

It is possible given the new ECMWF solution that the front hangs up
across central FL with prospect for additional precip into early
next week. While rain would be beneficial for many, there is
unusually low confidence in the wind/rain/temp forecast for Mon-Tue
as the GFS solution sweeps the front well south of the area with
stronger north to northeast winds around low pressure areas just
east of the area.

Surfline and Windy suggesting wind mess Mon-Wed with lingering Thurs. Windy ECMWF suggests swell for Ft Pierce south on Tues

Edited: 04/05/2023 at 09:33 PM by ww

SUNDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with
occasional seas to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet
with occasional seas to 11 feet. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms.

MONDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with
occasional seas to 14 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday Night through Monday...A full gale wl continue to take
shape along a prior frontal boundary a few hundred miles east of
Jacksonville. An unfolding coastal surge will wrap southward along
the FL Atlc coast into the nighttime period, with gale force N-NE
wind gusts, high surf, moderate erosion and wave runup,
especially north facing shores north of the tip of Cape Canaveral
and over Volusia Co. A Coastal FLood Watch is in effect for the
Volusia Co coast Sun aftn through early Tue. High rainfall chcs
carry forward into Sunday night, especially along the FL coast,
and to some degree inland with efficient rainfall production,
leading to some locally heavy rainfall along the beaches and coast
of Volusia co south to the Space Coast into Monday. Localized
rain amounts of one to two inches along the coast with low-topped
convection enhanced in some spots to bring some standing water and
nuisance-type flooding possible to the Volusia and/or North
Brevard coast into Mon. Some word-hedging wl be required at this
early stage due to ongoing drought conds, however a significant
short term dent in the state of drought wl be possible should an
efficient rainfall process unfold as advertised for coastal zones
roughly from the Space coast northward.

At least the sand will be moving the right direction and hopefully fill in some of the near shore submarine canyons.

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I was right.

Fun drift session. Very weedy though.

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...

Waiting for 20m buoy to hit 10-12' at 8 secs... Wabally time...

Edited: 04/09/2023 at 10:51 AM by SurferMic

12 feet 14 seconds! no favorable winds are in the current marine forecast for the week.

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
1037 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING


THIS AFTERNOON
Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with frequent
gusts to gale force. Seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas to
18 feet. A dominant period 12 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal
waters. Chance of showers early in the morning, then showers
likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

TONIGHT
East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around
40 knots. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet. A
dominant period 12 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Slight chance of showers after midnight.

TUESDAY
East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with
occasional seas to 13 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. Rough
on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms.


WEDNESDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Chance of showers.


THURSDAY
Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms.


FRIDAY
South winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional
seas to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms.

If you want to see beach sand again, you better take a picture.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

So it's 13 feet @ 13 sec on the buoy , must be bone crusher shore break at the W

It's chewing away at the Satellite sand as I type this. The condo commandos better get those life-vests ready.

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I was right.

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
449 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
449 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A surface trough extends along 90W and S of 28N. A low
pres will develop along the trough today. Strong to near-gale
force E winds with seas to 9 ft are already occurring across the
NE Gulf. Winds will be increasing to gale-force this afternoon
over the NE gulf waters as the low develops and moves N through
Wed night. Once the low has moved inland, marine conditions at
both locations will improve by Thu afternoon. For the weekend, a
cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause
winds and seas to increase.

Anyone get some fun surf? Couldn't find much yesterday, should've went to Sebastian I guess. Has this winter been exceptionally bad for surf or is it just me??

Florida..... Land of the missing variable!!! Caught a couple (crap) til the Southern Regional crowd bled over to where I surf. Fun to watch 60 lb kids just rip that shiitake out of it!!

Edited: 04/15/2023 at 01:52 AM by Dahui321

Thursday around noon was good. wind went offshore and still had some size. I surfed friday and it was 3-4 feet and mostly closing out.

I was 180 degrees wrong about the sand. Our trough in now 8 to ten feet deep. We paddled out on logs to watch the air show - I'm currently partially deaf from the EA-18 blasting what seemed like feet over our heads - and I plunged into the murky depths 20 feet from the beach after running out of wave.

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I was right.

no fukkin shyt. its obvious you are not from there

StirKook's gonna shred him some biguns dis swell brahz!!

He big Rippah!

KOWABUNGAAAAAKooooooooooooK!!



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Zzzzzzz.. Zzzzzzz.. Braaaaaapp!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

Edited: 04/23/2023 at 08:28 PM by fishkller