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Topic Title: Irma - stay or go?
Topic Summary: Models left, right and center
Created On: 09/07/2017 05:14 PM
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 09/07/2017 08:01 PM
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ww

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Irma's an extra-large storm.  It could be over Lake Wales but would have large expanses of itself over the Atlantic and Gulf for nourishment.  Stil would be in the process of collapsing, but perhaps more slowly than Charley, which moved fast enough to remain a hurricane while going from Punta Gorda to Daytona.

 09/07/2017 08:06 PM
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paddleout

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11pm update just came out- the WU IRMA chart above updated itself, and it seems to be along the lines of what I'm saying- CAT 3 inland.





I'm hoping that it stays over land as well- it will weaken the fastest that way. Perhaps a 2 by the time it gets near Brevard if it takes the land route.

However, my heart goes out to S. Florida- doesn't seem to be any good news there. Likely to be Andrew-ish. Only upside is the building codes have changed since then..

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 09/07/2017 08:19 PM
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Cole

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The new forecast has the thing kicking into high gear speed wise by the time it reaches Central Florida. The model has it in Tennessee by Tuesday afternoon.

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 09/07/2017 08:40 PM
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surfrc

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At this point I am staying because the euro model has it west of Orlando and the euro model has been closer to the correct path the whole time, We will know more in the morning. If she does the the gfs run I'm out. To me Levi in tonight's vid was a bit of a cover my butt scare of biblical proportions vid. Hope he is wrong. As others said if Irma enters the state at the furthest south point in the everglades she will be much weaker by central Fl and if the eye wall is west of Orlando we should be Ok. On the other hand south Fl is f^^ked
 09/07/2017 08:45 PM
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paddleout

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only thing is, how/when will you know if she does the GFS run? by that time you will still be in brevard and you dont wanna be gettin on the road..

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Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
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 09/07/2017 08:49 PM
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frothing321

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if youre not sure what you should do,

leave

 09/07/2017 09:23 PM
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surfrc

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She has been heading in a nearly west track now for several hours looking like a minor impact with Cuba soon, I am betting that she enters the everglades, not Miami maybe closer to Naples. Many of the models are now showing her going west of Brevard. I am pretty confident it wont be doing the gfs run, we will know more in the morning when we see her latest path and the up dated models.
 09/07/2017 09:25 PM
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WG

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I'm boarding up here in the morning, then going to my other house in Orlando, boarding up there and hunkering down.


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 09/07/2017 09:27 PM
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gallydif

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I was in miami for andrew and will be in miami for irma. This looks like andrew but on roids. This shit is scary.

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 09/07/2017 09:36 PM
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surfrc

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In your case WG I agree go and take care of your other house, just be aware you may actually be heading closer to the eye. Hope you have shutters or plywood over there. I cant find any plywood over here and I need to protect from the south with this new track.
 09/07/2017 09:43 PM
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paddleout

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I hear you WG

I feel its best to have as much land around you as possible. I get a bad feeling too close to the ocean.

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Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
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Brevard Florida
 09/07/2017 09:49 PM
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WG

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Originally posted by: surfrc

In your case WG I agree go and take care of your other house, just be aware you may actually be heading closer to the eye. Hope you have shutters or plywood over there. I cant find any plywood over here and I need to protect from the south with this new track.


I have plywood cut for all windows at both houses, been up before, and places to stay much more north, make the call to run farther or not tomorrow,
Need to go to bed so can get up and start early, but I'm still glued to the news.


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"We live in a land made of ideals, not blood and soil."

Edited: 09/07/2017 at 11:18 PM by WG
 09/07/2017 10:28 PM
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ww

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unless the storm is west of Orlando, there will be less wind at Orlando than on the Atlantic coast.  Land, with its rough surface, is an effective brake on wind.  

 09/08/2017 12:30 AM
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RocketSurf

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In 04 I ran away, twice, and both times I used US1. Still some traffic but not near as bad as 95 or 75.
Also, I hate the words "hunker down"....
 09/08/2017 03:48 AM
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paddleout

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The 5am update has Irma as a CAT2 by Orlando.. also the timeline seems to be slowing down or something as they have Orlando area marked as 2AM Monday.



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Florida Plant Nursery Heliconia Rainbow Eucalyptus
Exotica Tropicals
Plant Nursery
Brevard Florida
 09/08/2017 04:55 AM
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dingpatch

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Oh well, staying in Suntree, putting up the shutters this morning, , , , , perhaps still some "west" to trend into the models, , , , , just another 20-or-so miles west would be oh-so-good, , , , hope-against-hope, , , ,

My next door neighbors are screwed, , , , they never bothered with shutters. Now no plywood, no flood insurance, , , , , and, and, and, get this, , , , NO HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE! They are about my age, on SS, with very minimal income, and are the types who do not "trust" anything. NO on-line banking or bill pay, no internet; paper checks only, , , ,. Their home is paid for and they could get a nice reverse mortgage, but, , , , he says that they do not want to do that because then, , , , they would have to pay for Homeowners Insurance!!??

Edited: 09/08/2017 at 05:03 AM by dingpatch
 09/08/2017 05:05 AM
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Noworries

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Local weather just reported max winds now are 150, should be a Cat 2 by the time it hits Brevard. We can only hope it continues to weaken.
 09/08/2017 05:31 AM
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somebodyelse

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David came right up the coast, the eye came right over downtown melbourne, so the hot side was over the ocean the whole time.

We didn't have any damage and had not boarded up.

I am in north indialantic dead in the middle of the island, I'm staying...

Or rather I'm staying until tonight when I reassess.

And Saturday morning when I reassess, and Saturday night and Sunday morning....

So I'm staying until I leave, I have a freind in Viera who will rent me a room for a case of beer and a bottle of wine.

If it is to be Orlando and a cat2 or 3, I'm staying and surfing the offshores Monday morning...



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 09/08/2017 05:58 AM
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Noworries

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Originally posted by: somebodyelse

David came right up the coast, the eye came right over downtown melbourne, so the hot side was over the ocean the whole time.


Dude, I surfed David the morning after it passed over. It was like one of those movies, a lot less people on the island back in 1979, Shagg's Surf Shop and the boardwalk was about it. I went out with 3 other friends, we were the only guys in the water, head high reelers. I still remember seeing the lines rolling in when we pulled up. No parking meters, no people, just beach and surf.



Edited: 09/08/2017 at 06:43 AM by Noworries
 09/08/2017 06:15 AM
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Burry

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Dingpatch....that is really living "off the grid!"

be Safe! say hi to Mrs Patch!

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. " I like Ike!"



Dark Matter is hard to sea...

If you don't go looking for it - you will never find it.

http://beatbrian.com/burrysbreak/
2nd Light Forums » Surfing » Irma - stay or go?

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