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Topic Title: Let the Hype Begin
Topic Summary: Labor day Weekend
Created On: 08/13/2014 07:24 AM

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08/13/2014 10:46 AM
Karma Posts: 8028 Joined Forum: 01/26/2005	My vote is with the lovely Maria Molina. ------------------------- If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate. Edited: 08/13/2014 at 05:37 PM by Karma
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08/13/2014 12:32 PM
OBEY Posts: 666 Joined Forum: 07/21/2006	Originally posted by: ncsurf Originally posted by: OBEY The good news is the GFS has been showing this system forming for the past 3 days so there is consistency within the 5 day forecast. This will at least have a shot at TD status but making it across the MDR with the racing trade winds and sinking dry air is the biggest issue. 2009 is an analog year to 2014 so I expect we'll get at least one Cape Verde system near what Hurricane Bill was, probably peaking in intensity further west as conditions in the MDR limit how strong a storm will get further east this season. I wouldn't count out multiple storms finding a 1-2 week window of favorable conditions coming into late August and September. Remember in June when the GFS developed a TC in the NW Caribbean for about 2 weeks straight that never materialized? Even if we wait until the tropical wave is off the west African coastline we still have 5-7 days before we would see surf. Might as well wait until that happens before we get too riled up. But, it is fun to look at 372hr forecast when the surf is as flat as it is. Or, if you want to waste time another way, check out the NJ cams on Surfline. It is firing up there right now. Yes I do. I also know that the GFS struggles when predicting systems in times of transition from spring to summer, summer to fall, fall to winter and winter to spring. Climatology makes a case that there should be a storm in the Atlantic during the last week of August and into September, so the GFS scenario is highly believable and much more-so than the scenario in June earlier this summer. We're in the heart of the hurricane season and the GFS typically does very well with its cyclogenesis predictions. The MJO pulse will be strong off the African coast next week and dry air seems to be letting up after the past few tropical waves did a good job dispersing it. I appreciate you letting us know that we wouldn't see swell from a system off Africa until 5-7 days after it formed though. I had no idea.... ------------------------- https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast
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08/13/2014 12:49 PM
johnny Posts: 2348 Joined Forum: 12/31/2004	WTF why is it so good in jersey right now?
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08/13/2014 12:52 PM
ncsurf Posts: 183 Joined Forum: 02/23/2011	Originally posted by: OBEY Originally posted by: ncsurf Originally posted by: OBEY The good news is the GFS has been showing this system forming for the past 3 days so there is consistency within the 5 day forecast. This will at least have a shot at TD status but making it across the MDR with the racing trade winds and sinking dry air is the biggest issue. 2009 is an analog year to 2014 so I expect we'll get at least one Cape Verde system near what Hurricane Bill was, probably peaking in intensity further west as conditions in the MDR limit how strong a storm will get further east this season. I wouldn't count out multiple storms finding a 1-2 week window of favorable conditions coming into late August and September. Remember in June when the GFS developed a TC in the NW Caribbean for about 2 weeks straight that never materialized? Even if we wait until the tropical wave is off the west African coastline we still have 5-7 days before we would see surf. Might as well wait until that happens before we get too riled up. But, it is fun to look at 372hr forecast when the surf is as flat as it is. Or, if you want to waste time another way, check out the NJ cams on Surfline. It is firing up there right now. Yes I do. I also know that the GFS struggles when predicting systems in times of transition from spring to summer, summer to fall, fall to winter and winter to spring. Climatology makes a case that there should be a storm in the Atlantic during the last week of August and into September, so the GFS scenario is highly believable and much more-so than the scenario in June earlier this summer. We're in the heart of the hurricane season and the GFS typically does very well with its cyclogenesis predictions. The MJO pulse will be strong off the African coast next week and dry air seems to be letting up after the past few tropical waves did a good job dispersing it. I appreciate you letting us know that we wouldn't see swell from a system off Africa until 5-7 days after it formed though. I had no idea.... Well you are welcome for that information. Is the GFS predicting a storm because conditions are indeed favorable or because climatology says there should be a storm in late August/early September? In the short range (less than 5-7 days), I'd probably say the former but 7-10 days+ I would argue the latter. Sure, the GFS has nailed a few Cape Verde systems in the past several years beyond the 7 day range but its false-alarm rate is very high. That being said, it seems the GFS has improved with some of the more recent physics packages that have resolved some of the convective feedback issues but that stuff is probably a little above your head.
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08/13/2014 01:10 PM
bob3000 Posts: 15050 Joined Forum: 07/13/2004	oooooooooooooooooohhhh! ------------------------- Water dissolving...and water removing There is water at the bottom of the ocean
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08/13/2014 03:20 PM
DownSouthSlidah Posts: 1003 Joined Forum: 09/16/2006	Nice write up here (sorry, can't do the link thing): http://www.wptv.com/sports/recreation-sports/surfing-blog/updated-local-surf-forecast_20140218014833840 -------------------------
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08/14/2014 07:03 AM
Tiptime Posts: 9182 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	Double Whammy hype!! showing now ------------------------- The Wavecaster
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08/14/2014 07:10 AM
daner Posts: 7918 Joined Forum: 04/20/2004	I'm getting that tingly feeling all over. ------------------------- Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean
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08/14/2014 07:24 AM
Greensleeves Posts: 20478 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Florida I have ignored your wave starved shores for too long! And this:
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08/14/2014 07:49 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	HA.... forecasts 2 weeks out?!? You guys are like Charlie Brown waiting to kick that football..... more hot weather babes please
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08/14/2014 01:02 PM
johnnyboy Posts: 25207 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Insert refracto great pumpkin swell here, complete with west wind analysis, bathymetry dissertation, thesis, antithesis and the synthesis and a place to park in Palm Beach. Slow August, Im up for it again. ------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.
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08/15/2014 05:12 PM
OBEY Posts: 666 Joined Forum: 07/21/2006	Posted here - "Newly designated 95l fresh off the coast of Africa looks like a tropical depression already. Unfavorable conditions supposedly exist ahead of it but we'll see what it can do. Something to watch at least. It's been depressing seeing the tropical waves struggle in the dry Atlantic this season, but eventually there's going to be a window for a few storms to form. New Jersey scored a really fun swell from a Fall-like system so there are definitely hints of an early transition into the NE swell season. Low pressure looks to roll off the OBX next week to potentially gives us our first true ENE-NE rideable bump. Hopefully this is a sign of the pattern to come because it should only get better from here on out into September. " 95L Floater ------------------------- https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast
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08/15/2014 05:35 PM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	SON! is it me or do I see a condensing COC with Thunderstorm flare-up?! (I know it's what I want to see so...) but yes, it's approaching a dry environment, but hopefully the last 2 moistened it a little bit. Speaking of moist, normally I'd say there's a higher chance of getting friendly with Ms. Molina than this thing becoming a cat 3+ and taking an ideal track, but I had a custom board just glassed & probably won't get here for a couple of weeks, so that almost gurantees a swell BEFORE I get the board then flatness follows......
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08/15/2014 06:58 PM
OBEY Posts: 666 Joined Forum: 07/21/2006	Originally posted by: Plan B SON! is it me or do I see a condensing COC with Thunderstorm flare-up?! (I know it's what I want to see so...) but yes, it's approaching a dry environment, but hopefully the last 2 moistened it a little bit. Speaking of moist, normally I'd say there's a higher chance of getting friendly with Ms. Molina than this thing becoming a cat 3+ and taking an ideal track, but I had a custom board just glassed & probably won't get here for a couple of weeks, so that almost gurantees a swell BEFORE I get the board then flatness follows...... I thank you for your sacrifice. Hopefully you have another board ready for the swell. ------------------------- https://www.facebook.com/FLshredcast
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08/16/2014 04:26 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	yep, I held on to it's predecessor just in case look at wave#2 still over land
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08/17/2014 06:24 AM
Tiptime Posts: 9182 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	Still seeing double whammy hype ------------------------- The Wavecaster
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08/17/2014 06:35 AM
SpinK Posts: 1857 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Awesome news!!! -------------------------
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08/17/2014 07:04 AM
surfthecoochie Posts: 772 Joined Forum: 10/11/2006	It will happen
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08/17/2014 07:12 AM
stevea Posts: 906 Joined Forum: 11/20/2009	Yep, right on time to end the month with something, and then start of a new month. For our 3 days of total surf, least something to follow.
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08/17/2014 07:32 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Originally posted by: Tiptime Still seeing double whammy hype is this off the GFS?
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