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Topic Title: dry as a bone
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Created On: 04/09/2021 10:07 AM
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 04/09/2021 10:07 AM
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Central Floridave

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I guess it doesn't rain around here anymore...
 04/09/2021 12:45 PM
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TATTOO74

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Sunday am incoming
 04/10/2021 08:56 AM
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Central Floridave

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Crossing fingers and toes....

I didn't get any rain on the last cold front. That does look pretty nasty to the North of us. Knock on wood...voodoo-hex-indian-rain-dance...
 04/12/2021 06:29 AM
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Central Floridave

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Sunday afternoon got a heaping load of rain. Probably an inch. Yeah.
 04/13/2021 08:34 AM
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TATTOO74

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^^ Yessir, I don't think it ever stopped raining in Indialantic.
 04/15/2021 07:11 AM
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Central Floridave

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There is a good chance of more rain starting on Friday and for a week. Rain chances going up in our typical April/May Spring drought....I'll take it!
 04/15/2021 04:30 PM
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Central Floridave

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Fri night-Sat night...As convection starts to wind down Fri evening
across northern Lake and northern Volusia counties, a cold front
across east central FL will slowly start to move to the north with
no significant rainfall for the rest of the night. On Sat, as the
front moves further north, moisture will also push north and only
Lake, Seminole and Volusia counties will see shower and lightning
storms, mainly in the afternoon. Saturday highs will reach the
mid 80s towards the north and lower 90s towards Osceola southward
to Okeechobee county and Treasure Coast. Min temperatures on Fri
night will be in the lower-mid 60s.

Sun-Thu (previous discussion modified)...Absent of any real synoptic
push, the front relents to parallel upper flow and remains across
north-central Florida through mid-week, before the models hint at it
making any move. The front will provide an alley of moisture to
plume and concentrate from the Gulf of Mexico setting up a multi-day
period of generous rain. Frontal location will adjust slightly south
across the heart of the peninsula to offer several rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall further supported by a series of minor
waves along the boundary. Prolonged rain on tap for all locations,
but most likely for the area north of Orlando and the Cape on
Sunday, then overspreading much of east central Florida though mid-
week. The front is depicted by GFS and ECMWF to push south of the
local area late Wed, possibly reducing showers coverage from north
to south on Thu. Max temperatures on Sunday will realize lower 80s
north forecast area to lower 90s south forecast area. Then,
increased cloud cover along with likely showers/storms will keep max
temperatures dialed-back into the 70s to lower 80s. Min temperatures
continue in the 60s.
 04/19/2021 06:40 AM
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Central Floridave

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got dumped on this early Monday morning. Yeah. Any rain this time of year is great!
 04/19/2021 10:18 AM
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Central Floridave

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This is a classic heavy rain synoptic setup across the central FL
peninsula this week. A stalled surface frontal boundary in a
saturated environment, with strong mid-level moisture transport and
favorable upper-level dynamical support/divergence. Numerous rounds
of heavy rainfall are expected, and some areas will experience
training of heavy showers leading to minor flooding.
 04/20/2021 12:31 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Heavy rain on Tuesday!
 05/03/2021 07:56 AM
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Central Floridave

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Here we are in the typical dry month of May. Looks like today the high temps will hit 90F. A high predicted to be 95F on Wednesday. A cool front thursday with a chance of afternoon storms Wed/Thur and slight cool off friday/saturday into the low 80s. Hope we can get some moisture out of this. 90F+ temps probably after this last 'cool' front for the foreseeable future.


from NWS Melbourne:

Hot temperatures will be the focus both Tuesday and Wednesday; deep
southerly flow will lead to high temps well into the 90s areawide,
approaching the mid 90s and potential record high temperatures
across the interior. Lows will also remain well above average in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday-Friday...A messier pattern is in store for the latter half
of the week, as a strong late-season cold front makes its way
towards the FL peninsula. The mid-level ridge over the Caribbean
erodes by Thursday, allowing for the cold front with upper support
sink into the region. By daybreak Thursday, the surface ridge axis
has retreated well south of the area, yielding to the approaching
boundary. Rain chances will increase quickly through the day on
Thursday, ranging from 60-70% north of Orlando, 50-60% for areas
south. Latest GFS run takes a slightly drier option on Thursday,
ramping up coverage after sunset, but now the ECM slightly faster
and wetter, passing the front into south FL prior to midnight.
Regardless, can expect a wet and stormy Thu/Thu night, with temps
aloft dropping to near -10C and forecast CAPE values above 1200J/kg,
a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out in the mid to late
afternoon. With the change in the GFS, have raised PoPs Thursday
night to account for a slower moving front, with 30-40% chance from
the Treasure Coast to the Kissimmee River, tapering to 20% for areas
north.

By Friday morn, the ECM clears the front through the area across the
FL Straits, but the GFS holds on to a wet pattern across the south
through the mid afternoon. Have adjusted rain chances accordingly to
keep a 20-30% lingering chance for the Treasure Coast, likely
clearing prior to noon. As expected, southwest winds Thursday will
veer west and then northwest to north by Friday morning, signaling
the frontal passage, and high pressure building into the area for
the weekend.

Highs on Thursday will climb to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
lows dropping overnight to the mid to upper 60s. By Friday, most of
the area should start to feel the effects of the frontal passage, so
high temps will be a few degrees cooler in the mid to upper 80s
areawide. Friday night lows will receive the most notable influence
from the front, finally returning to near normal values in the low
to mid 60s, with a few spots in Lake and Volusia counties dropping
to the upper 50s.

Weekend...This weekend will be much drier, as high pressure builds
in across the Deep South, dropping PW to 0.5-0.8" on Saturday. The
surface high will quickly exit from coastal Carolina into the
Atlantic, returning winds to southeasterly and pulling moisture from
the Caribbean back towards FL. This will increase rain chances only
slightly on Sunday, mainly in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee.
Temperatures will begin to rebound this weekend, climbing from the
mid to upper 80s on Sat to the lower 90s by Sunday. Lower dewpoints
later this week, however, should keep a damper on the "mugginess" at
least through Saturday, leading to a pleasant start to the weekend.

 05/11/2021 02:49 PM
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Central Floridave

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Maybe some rain on Thursday...and, this:

A weak cold front is also forecast
to cross the Central FL peninsula late Thursday into Friday morning.
 05/11/2021 02:59 PM
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Central Floridave

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Thursday-Friday...A large and energetic trough will swing across the
eastern CONUS and Florida late this week, bringing an increasing
likelihood of showers and storms. A weak cold front is also forecast
to cross the Central FL peninsula late Thursday into Friday morning.
Models indicate moisture substantially increases Thursday with PWATs
of 1.6-1.8" or possibly greater, providing plenty of fuel for
numerous showers and lightning storms.

Rain chances have been bumped up to 60 percent areawide on Thursday,
with convection likely to linger into the evening hours until the
front moves through. Additionally, thermodynamic parameters and
favorable steering level winds will lead to few strong storms, with
small hail and gusty winds possible.

Drier air clears out any lingering showers across the I-4 corridor
by sunrise on Friday, though likely won`t clear the entire area
until late Friday afternoon. Isolated showers and perhaps a lightning
storm or two will be possible along the Space and Treasure Coasts,
where rain chances of 20-30 percent remain in place for Friday.
 06/10/2021 06:46 AM
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Central Floridave

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It's been super dry at my house for the past two weeks. Nada for rain. Come on rainy season!
 06/10/2021 06:48 AM
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Central Floridave

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National Weather Service Melbourne FL
415 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Normal Temperatures Will Continue the Next Several Days...
...Shower/Storm Chances Will Increase Next Week...
 06/12/2021 01:48 AM
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ww

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Tonight's rain fizzled out before reaching Vero.
 06/12/2021 08:12 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I got a good dosage Friday night. I think there is a direct correlation on my complaining on this forum about no rain and me getting rain.

Better than an Indian Rain Dance?
 06/12/2021 09:53 AM
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inletbum

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Keep those forum complaints coming. It looks like we should get some more rain starting Sunday into next week. Thank God, I am tired of dragging the hose around the yard.
 06/15/2021 07:27 PM
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Central Floridave

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Uh, the rainy season obviously hit us the last couple days! Melbourne recorded record rain yesterday at 2.19 inches. I've gotten rain every day since. I'll be quiet now on rain. And, btw, I'm only happy when it rains!
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