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Topic Title: Christmas day cold
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Created On: 12/21/2020 09:19 AM
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 Christmas day cold   - Central Floridave - 12/21/2020 09:19 AM  
 Christmas day cold   - Central Floridave - 12/21/2020 05:19 PM  
 Christmas day cold   - ww - 12/23/2020 04:18 AM  
 Christmas day cold   - scombrid - 12/23/2020 08:12 AM  
 Christmas day cold   - Central Floridave - 12/24/2020 06:25 AM  
 Christmas day cold   - Central Floridave - 12/24/2020 06:27 AM  
 Christmas day cold   - Central Floridave - 12/25/2020 06:29 AM  
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 12/25/2020 06:29 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...It`s Beginning to Feel a Lot Like Christmas(weatherwise)...
...Wind Chill Advisory Early This Morning Osceola/Brevard North...
...Freeze Warning Tonight From Orlando-Cape Canaveral North

Current...Low pressure currently positioned over the NJ/PA area will
lift northward through daybreak. Meanwhile, the associated cold
front will continue to push southward through the local area,
clearing the Treasure Coast early this morning. While the shower
band is still producing gusty conditions as it moves through, the
threat for any higher wind gusts or lightning has diminished.
However, temperatures continue to plummet behind the front. As of
330am, temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 40s from
Melbourne northward. A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect until
8am.

Today-Tonight...High pressure rapidly building across the Deep
South/northern Gulf Coast today will keep brisk northwest winds in
place today around 10 to 15mph and up to 15 to 20mph at times. With
stout northwesterly flow, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid 50s across much of the area this afternoon. Highs in the low to
mid 50s, except for the immediate and southern Treasure Coast, which
will stretch into the upper 50s. This will make for a chilly
Christmas Day, likely the coldest since the mid 1990s! Dry
conditions developing and clearing skies behind the FROPA, with
PWATs falling to as low as 0.2-0.25" this afternoon.

Not only will it be a brisk afternoon, tonight will also be the
coldest night of the season so far under clear skies. Previous
Freeze Watches for Lake and Volusia Counties have been upgraded to
Freeze Warnings, as temperatures are expected to fall to as low as
the upper 20s for around 5 to 7 hours. Additionally, Freeze Warnings
have been posted for Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard
Counties, as temperatures in the low 30s are expected for around 4
to 6 hours. Near freezing temperatures will be possible as far south
as northern Okeechobee County; however, timing of the coldest
temperatures looks to be slightly less than the necessary 2 hours.
This will be monitored for future updates. Patchy frost will be
possible in prone areas, but with very dry conditions and forecast
winds largely remaining above 5mph, will forgo mention of it in the
forecast at this time. Next, wind chills as low as the mid 20s are
expected overnight, with upper 20s along the Treasure Coast. While
winds will likely be too high for mentionable frost, currently they
are not forecast to be high enough for a Wind Chill Advisory.
Nonetheless, temperatures will be well below normal and those with
sensitive plants, pets, and pipes should take the necessary steps to
protect them from freezing temperatures.

This weekend...A lingering broad short wave trough will drop SE
across the SE CONUS, GOMEX and Florida Sat-Sun. At the surface,
strong high pressure over the SE CONUS will build NE along the
eastern U.S. seaboard and into the western Atlantic. Global model
guidance unanimous in showing the mid level short wave inducing a
weak inverted trough along the SEFL coast Sat night through Sun
night, which may enhance shallow moisture/convergence enough to
produce a few light rain showers near its axis. Have split the
difference between the lower NBM/higher Superblend POPs, showing a
slight chance for showers along the Treasure Coast Sat night-Sun,
and as far north as the Cape Sun night.

After a frigid start to Sat, max temps will only reach the L-M50s
north-central and U50s-60F along the Treasure Coast. Wide range in
mins Sat night, ranging from near 335F north interior to L50s for
coastal Martin County. A few spots near Lake George-Ocala Forest
could briefly reach close to freezing again. Onshore NE-ENE flow Sun
will result in much warmer/milder temps, with maxes 65-70F and mins
ranging from M-U40s NW of I-4 to M-U50s along the Treasure Coast.

Next Week...Mid level short wave ridge will build from the GOMEX
across the SE CONUS and Florida through mid week, followed by
another strong short wave trough passage late Thu. At the surface,
the post-frontal high NE of Florida Mon will get reinforced by
another strong surface high Tue-Tue night, which keeps moderate
onshore flow and mild/warming temps in place. The high moves east
Wed, leading to a an even warmer day-night, with breezy southerly
flow ahead of the next strong cold front, progged to pass through
ECFL Thu (ECM) or Thu night (GFS/CMC). There is the potential for
thunderstorms ahead of this next front as well.

Assuming the forecast comes to fruition, warming trend will result
in increasingly above normal temps through Thu, followed by cooler
weather to start off 2021.

Happy Holidays to all!
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