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Topic Title: Forecasting?
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Created On: 06/10/2024 06:41 AM
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 06/10/2024 06:41 AM
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Cole

Posts: 69324
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

The weather forecast is predicting rain day and night for four of the next five days. Is there a mysterious low forming that remains translucent untill it attacks or has weather prediction gone bananas?

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 06/10/2024 07:19 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19329
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

I've seen those forecasts.

NHC 'no gots' anything.

I just went and found a TV weather forecast on Youtube from Saturday:



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 06/10/2024 01:43 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Rainy season starts this week. I just got some rain this early afternoon.

from NWS Melbourne:

Issued at 536 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today-Tonight...One last day of abnormally hot weather, then the
streak finally comes to an end as the mid-upper level ridge
responsible is shunted to the southeast by broad troughing over
the CONUS digging down to the Atlantic seaboard. An attendant
surface front associated with the trough stalls near or just north
of North Florida, while the Atlantic high retreats south and
seaward a bit, backing low-level flow southwesterly, and lifting
copious (and much needed) tropical moisture to Florida. Increasing
cloud cover brings temperatures down a notch from previous days,
but still well above normal in the M-U90s inland and L-M90s along
the coastal corridor. A couple high temperature records could be
broken again today, with Leesburg and Vero Beach the most likely
candidates. Heat index values also come down a notch, but remain
just below Heat Advisory criteria at 100-107, highest from Osceola
and southern Brevard south. Winds WSW-SW 5-10 mph pick up to
10-15 mph and a bit gusty in the afternoon , especially along the
coast.

As for rain chances, we`ll start the day with a fairly sharp PWAT
gradient across ECFL from around 1.8-1.9" in Martin County to
1.2-1.3" in northern Lake and Volusia counties, which are forecast
to increase to 1.7"-2.1" (between the climatological 75th
percentile and daily maximum) by the evening. This will support
increasing rain chances through the day, starting at 20 pct across
the southern counties by late morning, 30-50 pct across most of
ECFL by the afternoon, and topping out at 60-70 pct from Orlando
to Titusville south. CAMs have a bit of variation in timing, for
example the HRRR getting things going mainly in the afternoon, but
overall coverage is in pretty good agreement. While 500mb
temperatures are a somewhat unimpressive at -6C to -4C, the
additional instability provided by the increasing moisture looks
to push MUCAPE values over 2,500 J/kg in the afternoon, and those
hot conditions will cause low-level lapse rates to exceed 7-8
C/km, resulting in a favorable environment for clusters of pulse
thunderstorms after 2 PM. Dry mid-levels could enhance downdrafts,
and indeed soundings show DCAPE values 900-1,000 J/kg, leading to
gusty thunderstorm winds to 50 mph, and a locally severe/damaging
gust to 60 mph can`t be ruled out. Other storm hazards will be
occasional to frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Adequate low-mid level flow should keep storms on the move, but
repeated rounds could result in locally high rainfall amounts of
2-3", with a upper limit of 4" not out of the question.

Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected through the
night, and while they won`t pack the same punch as those this
afternoon as we lose instability from daytime heating, we`ll
continue to see those rainfall totals increase.

Tuesday-Friday...Fairly straight forward forecast at this point.
Southwesterly flow around the Atlantic high transports juicy
tropical moisture across Florida, which combined with a broadening
shortwave trough becoming quasi-stationary over the GOMEX and
Florida, will result in high rain chances and an increasing
potential for localized flooding through the week. To paraphrase
WFO MLB wisdom, weather in Florida is often the mean of two
extremes, and as we look at the potential of going from drought to
flooding, this certainly holds true. We`ll see multiple rounds of
showers and lightning storms through the period with daily rain
chances 80-90 pct. The big question will be where we see those
repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms, and how much rainfall
accumulates. A fairly common theme across the various guidance is
24-hour rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts up to 4" possible, and a total QPF through Friday night of
5-8" down south and 2-4" to the north. Based on these numbers and
the cumulative effect over several days, the Weather Prediction
Center has issued a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across
all of ECFL through the period, and a Slight Risk starting across
the south Tuesday that shifts further north each day, reaching
Orlando to Titusville by Friday.

Model soundings show mostly that long-skinny profile associated
with high rainfall events, but CAPE values still manage to reach
1,000-1,500 J/kg in the afternoons, so storms capable of gusty
winds and at least occasional cloud to ground lightning will be
possible.

Almost as good news as the rain will be temperatures, which are
forecast to barely make it to 90 in northern Lake and Volusia
counties Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise and elsewhere only
make it to the M-U80s thanks to the cloud cover and rain. While
not a cold snap by any means, they will be at or below normal,
which is at least something.

Saturday-Sunday...Guidance has further diverged and further
decreased forecast confidence going into the weekend. GFS develops
a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ECM develops
little more than a wave. This results in a much drier solution
from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture across the area and
continues rain chances. Official forecast reflects a compromise
blend between the two, keeping relatively high rain chances and
near to below normal temperatures through the weekend, but changes
are likely as we drawn nearer.
 06/10/2024 04:30 PM
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Cole

Posts: 69324
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

It looks like we are going to get soaked from the beginnings of a rotating storm in the Atlantic. I thought four days and night of rain for no good reason was a bit unusual, even in June.

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I was right.
 06/11/2024 09:40 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Yeah for rainy season starting! All my rain buckets are full and now I can stop filling my swimming pool so much. Plants of course LOVE IT.

Cooler air temps as well. That was some Spring drought we went thru.

We will be complaining about too much rain soon enough! Hope we get some surf out of this system.
 06/11/2024 09:54 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during
the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later
this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the
system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida
during the next few days. For more information, see products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Weather Prediction Center products can be found at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast
information can be found at www.weather.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
 06/12/2024 05:34 AM
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Cole

Posts: 69324
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

A quick change from an 80% to 40% chance of rain.

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I was right.
 06/12/2024 09:06 AM
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LBLarry

Posts: 4733
Joined Forum: 05/25/2004

the southern end of the state is still getting hammered with rain today

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"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


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