I like where UCF is in on this AAC conference season prediction...#1 !!!

College Football Rankings, Season Predictions: American Athletic Conference Spring Version 2022

https://collegefootballnews.co...ce-spring-version-2022

good espn article...gonna be a long summer of no football...

Gus Malzahn, UCF football prepare to take next step up
https://www.espn.com/college-f...up?device=featurephone

Finebaum Show 5.13 - Gus Malzahn Interview
https://vimeo.com/709676065/69539612d4

Prescient comment there around 7:00 about how the move to a P5 conference opens the door to recruiting the best players in the country, players who wouldn't even talk to a non-P5 school.

It shows how the current structure (playoff slots) perpetuates the Old Boys' club. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

UCF could go to Big 12 as AAC champion if John Rhys Plumlee regains 'video game' magic
By Manny Navarro The Athletic
Jun 25, 2022

UCF didn't win a conference championship in Gus Malzahn's first season as coach, but he had no problem with the Knights declaring themselves state champions after they beat Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl last December to finish 9-4.

"We probably were the best team last year in the state, to be honest with you," Malzahn, 56, told The Athletic earlier this month. "It's probably not saying much."
Bragging about being the best team in Florida isn't quite what it used to be.

Last season marked the first time in 43 years that there wasn't a team from the state ranked in the final Associated Press poll. Florida and Miami carried the state flag early in the 2021 season. But the Hurricanes fell out for good after a loss to Michigan State dropped them to 1-2, and the Gators dropped out by the second week of October after a loss at LSU.

Florida State, meanwhile, the last in-state team to win the national title game (2013), hasn't been ranked in the AP poll since the Seminoles were 19th in the 2018 preseason poll.

UCF and Florida are the only two in-state programs to finish in the AP top 10 since 2017.

When UCF cruised to the American Athletic Conference title and a 13-0 season after a Peach Bowl victory over Malzahn's Auburn Tigers in 2017, most of the college football world rolled their eyes when the Knights declared themselves national champions after the Colley Matrix computer-generated system tabbed them the No. 1 team in the country.

With the Knights set to join a Power 5 conference next season, Florida, Florida State and Miami can't ignore UCF as a serious threat anymore. While College Football Playoff regulars Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State take most of the Sunshine State's top recruits these days, the Gators, Seminoles and Hurricanes have found themselves recruiting against UCF for the top remaining in-state players in recent years. Going to the Big 12 only helps the Knights raise their stature.

"We're recruiting differently now that we're going to the Big 12," Malzahn said. "It opened the doors for us with some guys that wouldn't bend before we made that move."

The Knights haven't overtaken the state's Big 3 yet in the recruiting standings. Still, progress is being made. UCF signed four top-500 recruits in the 2022 cycle. In the four years prior, the Knights signed three combined.

UCF's 2022 recruiting class, ranked 52nd in the 247Sports Composite, was its best despite including only 15 high school seniors to score points in the team standings.

The group Malzahn has added to UCF's roster since the end of the season includes 10 transfers from Power 5 programs. The 247Sports Composite transfer portal standings had Florida State and Miami ranked 11th and 12th. But UCF wasn't far behind. The Knights finished 16th.

The momentum has carried over a little at the start of the 2023 cycle with a handful of notable in-state official visitors in June, which included top-100-ranked defensive lineman John Walker (Kissimmee, Fla.) and three other top-500 recruits.

"Things are going very well," Malzahn said. "A lot of excitement heading into Year 2. Year 1 was more about making sure we knew our personnel, built around our strengths. It was good to go through the league, get an understanding of what you're dealing with, then recruit to our needs.

"But our goals are a lot bigger than (being state champions). Our goal is to win a national championship here. I really believe we can do it. This place is a gold mine. It's a great school. Orlando, it's unbelievable to live here. Everything is set up for great success. It's a very exciting time right now."

Malzahn wants to create "a State of Orlando" recruiting fence in Central Florida but is not ashamed to say he's also going to use the transfer portal to build his UCF teams. As far as name, image and likeness is concerned, UCF is "embracing it," Malzahn said.

Instead of wearing traditional numbers on the back of their jerseys for the spring game in April, UCF players wore QR codes so businesses and individuals interested in signing UCF players to marketing deals could easily find links to their player bios and Twitter and Instagram handles.

"I know our main guys did fairly well last year," Malzahn replied when asked how well UCF's players did financially in the NIL market.

"We're a young school. We don't have some of the dynamics some of the older traditional schools have. But we're in Orlando with 2.5 million people. The best brands in the world are right here. There's no NFL team, which means our guys are set up unbelievably in the NIL age. We've got 72,000 students, and the average age of our alumni is 36. They're all on social media. The more that we can go down this road, the better off we are. That's why I say everything is set up here for success."

Winning the American Athletic Conference for the first time since 2018 and getting back into the national rankings before leaving for the Big 12 could help speed up the process.

But are the Knights good enough to beat conference favorites Cincinnati and Houston? They might be, if the transfers Malzahn scooped up from Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Maryland and Virginia perform the way he thinks they can.

Offense

Malzahn inherited an elite quarterback in Dillon Gabriel and an offense averaging 42 points a game from Josh Heupel last year. But injuries took a toll on UCF's offense, and the Knights took a step back in terms of the scoring numbers fans have grown accustomed to seeing.

UCF's 31.9 points per game were the fewest for the program since the Knights averaged 28.8 in 2016. In the seasons following 2016, UCF led the country in scoring in 2017 (48.2 points per game) and ranked sixth (43.2) in 2018, fifth (43.4) in 2019, and eighth (42.2) in 2020.

It's no secret that Malzahn's hurry-up, no-huddle offenses performed their best when a legitimate dual threat was running the show at quarterback. His most prolific offense at Auburn in 2010 - when he was offensive coordinator - averaged 41.2 points per game. Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton was the catalyst. Newton could throw it. He also ran for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns on 264 carries, driving opponents crazy with the read option.

It's no coincidence Malzahn's second-best offense at Auburn, which averaged 39.5 points a game and reached the national title game in 2013, was led by another elusive quarterback in Nick Marshall. He wasn't nearly as big or as good a passer as Newton, but Marshall ran for 1,062 yards and 12 touchdowns on 172 carries in 2013.

No other Malzahn quarterback since Marshall has come close to matching that many rushing attempts or yards in a season in his offense, and no Malzahn-led offense has averaged more than 34 points a game since Marshall left him.

That's why bringing over former Ole Miss quarterback John Rhys Plumlee in the transfer portal could be the key to unlocking an elite offense at UCF in 2022.

"He was like a video game in the SEC his true freshman year," Malzahn said of Plumlee, whom he tried to recruit to Auburn. "Very excited that we have him."

As a freshman in Oxford in 2019, Plumlee split reps with Matt Corral. He made eight starts and ran for 1,023 rushing yards and 12 TDs, completing 52.7 percent of his 150 pass attempts for 910 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Lane Kiffin took over at Ole Miss in 2020, and Corral became the primary quarterback, leaving Plumlee, who has 4.4 speed in the 40-yard dash, to work mostly at receiver or take direct snaps as a running back. Although Plumlee has thrown just eight passes over the past two seasons, Malzahn believes he has an elite arm and can make the throws downfield to stretch defenses.

"My heart's always been at quarterback and when I got the opportunity to do it again, I ran with it," Plumlee said after tossing a couple of touchdowns in the spring game. "I love the offense. It's awesome. People know Gus Malzahn has a really good offense. With the talent and the pieces we have, I know we're going to score a lot of points."

Of course, Plumlee has not won the starting job yet. Malzahn didn't name a starter coming out of the spring and said the only reason Plumlee took the first reps in the spring game over sophomore Mikey Keene was he "won a coin flip."

Keene, a 5-11, 180-pound three-star recruit in the 2021 cycle out of Chandler, Ariz., went 7-3 as a starter after Gabriel went down in a loss to Louisville on Sept. 17. Keene completed 63.6 percent of his 272 pass attempts for 1,730 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. His NFL passer rating (92.9) was fifth among 17 first- and second-year quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. But Keene isn't a runner, and Malzahn made it a focus for the young quarterback to use his feet more this spring on third down and medium distances.

"Mike finished very strong being the starter as a true freshman last year," Malzahn said. "So we feel like we got two real guys at quarterback. That's going to be rare now with the one-time transfer rule and all that. So that's a really good position for us."

In the backfield, leading rusher Johnny Richardson (5-7, 170) is back to provide explosiveness in the running and passing games. He averaged 7 yards a carry, caught 25 passes for 226 yards and provided a nice change of pace when 6-1, 225-pound former Northwestern transfer Isaiah Bowser wasn't bowling over opponents with his size.

Bowser averaged 4.42 yards per carry and ran for 703 yards and nine touchdowns before injuries forced him out of the final three regular-season games and the spring game. But he's back to form a nice 1-2 punch with Richardson after pounding the Gators in the Gasparilla Bowl with 155 yards on 35 carries.

UCF's offensive line must replace both starters on the left side - 18-game starter Marcus Tatum at tackle and 47-game starter Cole Schneider at guard. But Malzahn found help in the portal, bringing back Clermont, Fla., native Ryan Swoboda (6-10, 325) from Virginia, where he started 25 games, and former Jacksonville State starting left tackle Tylan Grable (6-7, 290).

They'll compete with fifth-year senior Edward Collins (6-6, 315), a 13-game starter with 1,218 snaps at UCF. The returning starters, meanwhile, include 31-game starter Samuel Jackson (6-6, 325) at right tackle, 22-gamer starter Matthew Lee at center and 21-game starter Lokahi Pauole (6-4, 305) at right guard. Pauole was an All-AAC second-team selection.

At receiver, Tennessee transfer Brandon Johnson (38 catches, 558 yards, 11 TDs in 2021) ran out of eligibility, and five others hit the transfer portal, including Jaylon "Flash" Robinson, who left for Ole Miss after a dazzling spring game. But the addition of Auburn's 2021 leading receiver - Kobe Hudson - could make up for the losses.

Hudson (6-1, 200) had five catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game after producing 44 catches for 580 yards and four catches last year for the Tigers. He should pair up nicely with 5-11, 175-pound senior Ryan O'Keefe, who finished second in the AAC with 84 catches for 812 yards and seven scores last season.

At tight end, former walk-on Alec Holler (6-3, 230) returns after producing 19 catches for 191 yards and three touchdowns in eight starts in 2021. But he has competition for reps from Kemore Gamble (6-4, 245), who is coming over from Florida. Gamble had 31 catches for 414 yards and four scores as a full-time starter for the Gators last season.

Key stat to know: UCF slipped from 11th in third-down conversions (48.8 percent) in 2020 to 83rd last season (37.93 percent). The shortcomings occurred when Malzahn's offense tried to run it on third down and 4 or more yards to go, converting only six of 44 attempts (13.6 percent) in those situations. That's why Malzahn likes an elusive quarterback who can scramble and pick up first downs with his legs. In 2010, Newton picked up 15 first downs in 32 situations when he tucked the ball and ran on third down and 4 or more yards to go.

Defense

Coordinator Travis Williams, a former Malzahn assistant at Auburn who was plucked away from a defensive assistant role at Miami only 17 days after Manny Diaz hired him in Coral Gables last year, led a unit that gave up nine fewer points per game (24.5) and more than a yard less per play (5.08) than it did in 2020.

The biggest jump, though, came in the secondary, which posted the seventh-best efficiency rating against opposing quarterbacks, up from 104th in 2020.

"The communication from back end to the linebacker is what we worked on a lot," said Williams, who runs a 4-2-5 scheme. "Before the ball is snapped and post-snap, not turning anyone free, and then understanding why we're calling certain calls. ... I thought that was the biggest improvement we made."

Nine UCF players who started at least six games last season are back. The big losses were leading tackler and top linebacker Tatum Bethune (Florida State transfer) and All-AAC first-team selection Big Kat Bryant, who led the team with 14 tackles for loss and six sacks and signed with the Dallas Cowboys as an undrafted free agent. Bethune left with Williams' blessing.

Up front, three starters return. Western Kentucky transfer Ricky Barber (6-3, 290) did a solid job in the middle, producing 5 1/2 tackles for loss and three sacks in 10 starts for the Knights last year. He forms a nice 1-2 punch with Keenan Hester (6-4, 305), who had 1 1/2 sacks and a few good moments in the spring game after starting seven games in 2021. Out on the edge, junior Josh Celiscar (6-4, 265) is back after starting 10 games and producing 7 1/2 tackles for loss and three sacks last year.

The real pressure, though, comes from senior Tre'mon "Drop" Morris-Brash (6-2, 245). He didn't start a game last season but finished second on the team with 10 tackles for loss and five sacks. He and fifth-year senior Landon Woodson (6-6, 235), who had three sacks in the spring game, should be the biggest pass-rushing threats for the Knights.

In addition, two SEC transfers will provide depth: Redshirt junior K.D. McDaniel (Kentucky) and former four-star recruit Lee Hunter (Auburn).

"Like Coach Malzahn said, we really focused on our pass rush this spring," said Williams, whose defense produced 2.77 sacks per game (34th among FBS programs) last year and graded out 107th in tackling, according to PFF, and 78th in rushing yards allowed per play (4.32 per carry). "We felt like we left some meat on the bone this past year as far as just getting to the quarterback and not being able to get them down."

At linebacker, UCF has only one experienced starter back who has played more than 300 snaps at the FBS level: 6-2, 230-pound senior Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, who started five games and had 51 tackles, 6 1/2 for loss, an interception and a forced fumble in 2021.

What the Knights lack in experience, they made up for by bringing in talent via the portal. UCF scooped up former Maryland linebackers Branden Jennings and Terrence Lewis and brought in former FCS All-American Jason Johnson, who led the Ohio Valley Conference with 112 tackles last season at Eastern Illinois. Jennings, a four-star recruit in the 2021 cycle, started three games for the Terrapins last season before transferring to Kansas State and then UCF. Lewis, a five-star from Miami in the 2021 cycle, played two snaps on special teams last year before having surgery. He sat out the spring.

"Jean-Baptiste has been awesome. He's been leading the group and taking the bull by the horns," Williams said. "We've got some guys. We've just got to put the pieces together in the locker room. We're going through the practices in the summer and seeing who fits where."

UCF's secondary brings back six players who started at least six games last season. They're strong at safety. Junior Quadric Bullard, who finished second on the team with 83 tackles, has put on weight, Williams said. Former Georgia transfer Divaad Wilson, who earned second-team All-AAC honors from coaches after producing 72 tackles and two interceptions last season in 12 starts, has also made strides.

The highest-graded defensive back was cornerback Davonte Brown. The junior is listed by PFF as the 85th-best draft-eligible prospect going into the season and the 11th corner on its big board. He had seven pass breakups and allowed only five catches for 56 yards and no scores last season the 20 times he was targeted in pass coverage.

"He's quiet, but he comes to work every day," Williams said of Brown. "He's going to take his game to a new level, having a great summer, working his tail off."

Key stat to know:
Stopping the run is fundamental to UCF's success. In nine wins last season, the Knights held opponents to an average of 106 yards rushing per game and 3.31 yards per carry. In the four losses - to Louisville, Navy, Cincinnati and SMU - UCF gave up an average of 279 yards per game and 5.71 yards per rush.

Special teams

The Knights return their long snapper, kicker and punter and their main return men on kickoffs in Richardson and O'Keefe.

Senior Daniel Obarski has handled UCF's kicking duties the past two seasons but was only 8-of-14 on field goal attempts last year, including going 1-of-6 from 40 yards or more. That opens the door for freshman walk-on Colton Boomer to enter the competition.

Senior punter Andrew Osteen has handled UCF's punting duties since 2019. He ranks second in UCF history with a 42.2 career yards per punt average. He punted 71 times last year with an average of 41.1 yards per kick.

Opposing scouting report

As good as Keene was in relief of Gabriel last season, at least one opposing coach believes Plumlee is the key to UCF's success in 2022 and expects Malzahn to start him at quarterback.

"Gus just really likes those guys that can run," the coach said. "I mean, he's so good at building around what his quarterback can do. But when the guy can run, it really feeds into his run game, which kind of predicates everything for him. If they can run the ball, then they can throw big shots over the top. That's what he likes to do. The fact that you have a running quarterback that really makes it more 11-on-11, it really levels the playing field and puts a lot of stress on the defense, which in turn gets you in a lot of one-on-one situations.

"Dillon Gabriel was a stud and they were rolling in his first few games. When he got hurt, they had to go to the freshman. But you'll get to see Gus much more comfortable this year because he's got a QB that'll fit his comfort zone and his style and what he likes to do. They're going to have a big year. They're going to be one of the hardest teams in our league, if not the best."

Defensively, there's also plenty of respect for the job Williams did in his first season as coordinator and what he'll do with most of his unit back.

"Travis will do a great job running that scheme on defense, and I know they've got some really good high school players that have been on their roster coming back," the coach said. "We'll see how good the transfers are, but their returning core in the secondary is very good."

How the Knights have recruited from 2019 to 2022

As the Knights prepare to enter the Big 12, there's no question UCF needs to begin recruiting at a higher level if it is going to be a legitimate conference title contender.

The Knights' average class during the past four years was 63rd according to the 247Sports Composite, placing them third in the AAC behind Cincinnati and Memphis. If you were to compare UCF with their future Big 12 rivals, they would be seventh in the league behind Baylor (36th), West Virginia (37th), Iowa State (46th), Cincinnati (49th), Texas Tech (59th) and Kansas State (60th).

One issue with the past few classes has been attrition.

Of the 21 high school recruits the Knights signed in the 2019 cycle coming off a 12-1 season, nine have left the program. In the 2020 class, six of the top-10-ranked high school recruits have already left via the transfer portal. In the 2021 class, three of the top four have left, with seven of the 17 high school recruits already gone. The coaching change obviously played a role, but those figures help explain why the transfer portal is something Malzahn is using quite a bit.

In the transfer portal

Seven of the 22 players who have left UCF since the start of the 2021 season ended up at Power 5 programs: Gabriel (Oklahoma), tight end Charlie Browder (Tennessee), receivers Jaylon Robinson (Ole Miss) and Titus Mokiao-Atimalala (UCLA), defensive lineman Cam Goode (Michigan), and linebackers Tatum Bethune (Florida State) and Eriq Gilyard (Kansas).

The fact Malzahn was able to bring in 10 players from Power 5 schools, though, tells you he won the overall battle this past season. If the Knights can continue to pull in difference-makers from other schools, it will more than make up for any recruiting deficiencies in the next few years.

Impact of coaching changes

There were only two coaching changes on Malzahn's staff after his first season in Orlando. Former Troy coach Chip Lindsey replaced G.J. Kinne (Incarnate Word) as offensive coordinator, and former Indiana co-offensive coordinator Grant Heard replaced Darrell Wyatt (Boston College) as receivers coach.

"Stability, college coaching staff wise, is getting more and more rare," Malzahn said. "Travis Williams and his staff did a great job last year. Offensively, Chip Lindsey is a guy that I've worked with different times. We won championships together. Very excited to have him come in. Grant Heard's a guy that worked for my buddy Hugh Freeze for a long time. I got to know him way back when. He's the receiver coach at Ole Miss that really got that group going. Feel very excited about those two guys."

Schedule

Sept. 1
South Carolina State
Home

Sept. 9
Louisville
Home

Sept. 17
Florida Atlantic
Away

Sept. 24
Georgia Tech
Home

Oct. 1
SMU
Home

Oct. 13
Temple
Home

Oct. 22
East Carolina
Away

Oct. 29
Cincinnati
Home

Nov. 5
Memphis
Away

Nov. 12
Tulane
Away

Nov. 19
Navy
Home

Nov. 25
South Florida
Away

Final assessment

Winning the league for the first time in four years isn't far-fetched if Plumlee reaches his potential. The Knights, though, must do a better job of tackling and stopping the run if they're going to beat Houston or Cincinnati. The potential is there to win 10 or more games, be the best team in the state again and put together another stellar recruiting class. But it's not a slam dunk any of it happens. There are a lot of new pieces trying to come together.