Fuck! The NHC 10 AM, 10/8/24, still shows it as a Hurricane when it passes over us Thursday morning.



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Dora Hates You

Wind probabilities for Brevard beaches are a bit higher than for Orlando, but still only a big higher than for Fort Pierce, which has only a tropical storm warning. NHC wind probabilities

Hmmmmm, , , , the current model 'ensemble' forecast's 'means' are tending south of TB and then exiting perhaps down towards Vero/FP??!!

weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/AL14

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Dora Hates You

Weather underground shows Milton as a cat 2 over kissimmee.

windy is showing the highest gusts on the GFS with the EURO a bit lower. They are showing about 70ish mph max gusts for beachside at windy, which is not quite a cat 2 level. My experience has been that windy usually calls it the best between gfs and euro, so it is possible that the cat 2 thing may be overcalled, but i still am prepping for that.


MILTON INTENSITY CHART

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 11:02 AM by paddleout

I hope the sheer gets to work on it soon. Will see what the update in a few minutes brings but the last few frames of IR satellite images look like it is back to cat 5 wind but with a larger eye than its last cat 5 presentation.

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The earlier scenarios talked about the reeaaally fortuitous arrival of an early cold front,
and the wind shear it brought with it
Notice that temp drop, rain, north winds?
Apparently that storm went from a depression bobbing around in the gulf to 185 mph
in under 24 hours....the new normal
What I just saw was a drop from 125 mph in Tampa to.....85 mph here.
We luck out this time? The season is young.
All will be revealed.
ps: climate change is a hoax

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It's a democratic hoax

Edited: 10/08/2024 at 05:14 PM by nukeh2o

speaking of shear, etc it's always a good idea to watch Dr. Levi Cowan's videos.
He's a PHD in Meteorology, really informative and has excellent no-nonsense daily videos on his site:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

been through many hurricanes watching his videos and his information is the best

5AM satellite image was perfect symmetry and cat 5 presentation. 7 AM showing asymmetry. Fingers crossed.

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Radar out of Key West showing erosion of the western eye wall and regional imagery showing frontagenic forcing with larger area of deep convection developing north of it and disrupting the inflow of hot saturated air on the back side. The transition appears to be occurring as forecast by GFS model.

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My old Army buddy in Missouri phrased it correctly:

Bend over, your gonna get it from behind this time!

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Dora Hates You

The number of rotating cells north and east of the main circulation is nuts. So many threats from a storm this large.

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The WFTV guy is saying that it will be CAT 2-ish when it gets to O'ville.

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Dora Hates You

Good radar link

The radar loop is laid over the forecast track!

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 10/09/2024 at 09:25 AM by dingpatch

I love the large rain storm in front of the truly massive rain storm. The named low that formed in front of the other two just adds more icing to the cake.

Yes, the weather these days in completely normal.

At least we aren't alone when it comes to oddball weather.


http://apnews.com/article/saha...7a0ef370aff60775d0245d

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I was right.

I'm just here for the 2024 Looty pics ??

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Looty! YES!!!!!!

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Dora Hates You

Quick post before I lose power
Looks like a Cat 3 hitting Anna Maria Island / Longboat Key we should see a cat 1ish
What Beachside Brevard is getting now is like 75% of it according to Windy

Gusts should reach about 60mph overnight into the AM - right now its gusting about 45.

should be bearable as long as you manage to get lucky and avoid any tornadoes
hell of alot of water around though. ground is so saturated. that plus high wind equals downed trees, so hope for the best. should be messy for sure

7pm. eye just offshore

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER RAIN 72 70 94 NE22G46 29.50F
INVERNESS RAIN 70 70 100 NE28G39 29.53F
BROOKSVILLE HVY RAIN 72 71 97 NE39G69 29.39F FOG
CLEARWATER AIR HVY RAIN 70 68 94 NE24G51 29.24F
ST PETE CLEARW HVY RAIN 73 73 100 NE35G53 29.19F VSB 3/4
TAMPA INTL RAIN 73 73 100 NE22G39 29.26F FOG
TAMPA EXEC RAIN N/A N/A N/A NE23G41 29.29F
MACDILL AFB FOG N/A N/A N/A NE38G58 N/A VSB 3/8
PETER O KNIGHT N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
ST PETERSBURG HVY RAIN 78 77 96 NE48G66 29.14F VSB 1/2
SARASOTA RAIN 78 77 96 E41G59 28.94F FOG
VENICE N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 28.74F

STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CLEARWATER BEACH 72 80 40/ 27/ 43 990.1
MIDDLE TAMPA BAY 76 80/ 38/ 47 986.1
VENICE 78 83 140/ 52/ 63 982.3F

$$
FLZ066-069-070-075>078-162-262-165-265-100000-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA LGT RAIN 80 77 90 S41G66 29.19F FOG
FT MYERS LGT RAIN 79 76 90 MISG 29.26F FOG
SOUTHWEST INTL N/A N/A N/A N/A S39G60 29.32F
IMMOKALEE N/A N/A N/A N/A S22G43 29.40S FOG
MARATHON CLOUDY 83 78 85 SW16G36 29.62R
KEY WEST NAS MOCLDY 87 78 74 SW36G46 29.63R HX 100
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 84 76 76 SW32G49 29.63R

Cocoa Beach got hit by a tornado this afternoon. Wednesday. Also, I was listening to the Wx radio and they said landing in Cape Holly as well. My friend in Tampa sent me a text around 5pm saying they haven't lost power yet. 7pm now no reply from text.

8pm

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER RAIN 70 68 94 NE25G40 29.47F
INVERNESS RAIN 70 70 100 NE24G43 29.47F
BROOKSVILLE HVY RAIN 70 70 100 NE35G63 29.35F FOG
CLEARWATER AIR HVY RAIN 70 68 94 NE26G54 29.13F
ST PETE CLEARW HVY RAIN 72 72 100 NE40G69 29.10F VSB 1/2
TAMPA INTL HVY RAIN 73 72 96 NE30G53 29.19F FOG
TAMPA EXEC HVY RAIN N/A N/A N/A NE24G37 29.21F
MACDILL AFB FOG N/A N/A N/A NE41G52 N/A VSB 3/8
PETER O KNIGHT N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
ST PETERSBURG HVY RAIN 76 75 97 NE54G77 28.93F VSB 1/4
SARASOTA RAIN 77 75 93 E53G93 28.42F FOG
VENICE NOT AVBL

STATION/POSITION SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CLEARWATER BEACH 73 79 40/ 38/ 55 988.0F
MIDDLE TAMPA BAY 76 70/ 52/ 67 N/A
VENICE 79 83 140/ 62/ 74 972.2F

$$
FLZ066-069-070-075>078-162-262-165-265-100100-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA CLOUDY 81 75 82 S51G79 29.08F HAZE
FT MYERS LGT RAIN 79 73 82 MISG 29.24F
SOUTHWEST INTL CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A S36G53 29.30F
IMMOKALEE N/A N/A N/A N/A S20G39 29.40S FOG
MARATHON CLOUDY 84 76 76 SW20G36 29.64R
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 83 75 77 W28G39 29.66R