Models are firming up with landfall somewhere between Panama City and Cedar Key, main wind field well east of landfall. The area's been hit recently. Sunday 11 pm

The forecasters are struggling with getting tomorrows weather right. Where this storm goes no one knows.

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I was right.

NHC became pretty firm about what to expect on Monday. Major hurricane, likely east of Tallahassee. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graph...4.shtml?start#contents

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.

Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

there is currently a 3 feet 12 seconds NE swell on the 20 mile buoy. this is from that low off of New Englang. I hope that swell can overcome the strong offshores coming and we get great surf when Helen gets to the North of us and gives us offshores. Marine forecast calls for South winds on Friday, but that may be wrong and it could be SW on Friday.


Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm
1121 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

REST OF TODAY
Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.

THURSDAY
Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. Seas 7 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, building to 8 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet in the afternoon.

FRIDAY
South winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet, subsiding to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet in the afternoon.

SATURDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.


SUNDAY
West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.

Looking like a sequel to Michael, but farther east. Looks like a serious tropical storm wind threat to Atlanta, and wind gusts and very heavy rain in the southern Appalachians.

Thurs, 11 am, crowd at Navarre Pier, western Panhandle. Clean. NHC discussion for 11 am EDT notes that it may be a bit short of cat-4 at landfall, but is an enormous storm.

Here's a quote:

It should also be re-emphasized that Helene is a very large hurricane. In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

FRIDAY
Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

3:30, rechecked Navarre (Santa Rosa Co.) and there's a crowd and even a lifeguard.

Eye went right over Perry at midnight

I surfed at noon today. It was 3-4 feet. strong sideshore drift North. Difficult to catch. Saw a couple good rides. Hopefully gets better when the wind dies down.

Fun cleanup about 10 further south. Woot?

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Cocoa Beach was head high and terrible Friday evening. Our once good bars are now jacked from the hard southerly current.

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I was right.

a 3 feet 12 second NE swell continues to show on the 20 mile buoy this Saturday morning. Looks like NHC named that New England to Bermuda and now half way to England low pressure system mentioned first on this post.

NHC, 8 pm Saturday Sep 28:

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Windy: GFS has a hurricane hitting near Panama City Sunday 6th, European a potential very, very bad storm surge scenario for Charlotte Harbor to Pinellas.

There may be a fairly long-period swell event from a huge central Atlantic storm around Oct. 8. Surf-Forecast is bigger than Surfline and both seem to favor north of the Cape over south. Still far out.

Big Kirk. NHC

GFS no longer shows the gulf storm. Good.

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Nor European. But there is possibly an interesting circulation that has wind rotating around the edges of the Gulf. Not great for surfable waves. The Atlantic continues to evolve, lively in both GFS and European. As of Wednesday morning, Surfline is showing a spate of mostly wind waves.

Edited: 10/02/2024 at 07:13 AM by ww

In the southern Brevard surf spots major Trough like 7 feet deep at low tide. Nyce!