NHC isn't enthusiastic, but farther-out European and US models do give us a well-placed hurricane well suited to providing waves north of the Cape.

LETS GOOO!!!!

It's got to hook North or otherwise it's another Debby

Late Friday afternoon, GFS is showing landfall north of Wilmington. European has it well east of Cape Hatteras, so for NC it could be great or a disaster. Surfline is showing just one day of good surf, Sunday, at Daytona. Presumably less to the south.

Friday night, past 9pm, GFS and European are both showing the hurricane well out to sea. Surf Forecast is showing highest wave energy for NE Florida Friday night and Saturday morning.

https://www.surf-forecast.com/...recasts/latest/six_day

Edited: 08/09/2024 at 07:01 PM by ww

Saturday morning, Surf Forecast is plumping serious wave energy for Friday at Daytona, while Surfline thinks nothing will happen as the presumed hurricane passes by. Windy presents an impressive offshore hurricane.

FNMOC this morning: the NAVGEM shows good sized storm east of the Bahamas Sat. The "official" model run cuts out on Weds. Must be significant disparity between models. Keep an eye open...

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

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Dora Hates You

Early Sunday morning, that spaghetti is being followed by GFS and European. Both have it crossing PR, then going past Bermuda. We might get more swell from a long fetch of NE wind than from hurricane.

Windy.com is showing the Euro model with offshore winds on the beach Sunday . The GFS has onshore <10 mph . Time will tell

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Dora Hates You

Looking like driving to south-facing North Carolina would be a good idea for those with the time and gas money. Wieland has noted the bit of NE wind swell that's likely to precede the hurricane.

I know a place better than NC for this swell!!!! Little farther of a drive but better surf.

Surfline is on the blink. Surf-forecast predicts substantial energy (1550 kJ) for Tuesday at Hither Hills. Frisco almost as good. Broad Cove NS briefly hits 6,000 on Wed.

Edited: 08/12/2024 at 10:01 AM by ww

white Point 1987kj on tues. 8' 15sec. constancy 100/100. It will be pumping at the Wave Park. I can actually give out the spots name cuz nobody on this site will go. You would have to put on a full suit and booties . miss this swell but I'll be up there in mid sept-dec. Be glad to get wet here though. looks to be fun Sunday

Edited: 08/12/2024 at 11:54 PM by Dahui321

For Brevard's wave quality, I hope it stays below a 3.

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I was right.

Back to school Swell:

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move northward, well east of
Florida. Long period swells from the offshore tropical system are
expected to produce rough surf and a High risk of rip currents at
area beaches this weekend.

from NWS Melbourne

Thursday-Saturday...North to northeast flow develops behind the
frontal boundary Thursday, increasing to 10-12 kts each afternoon.
Seas of 2-3 ft build to 5-8 ft Friday as Tropical Storm Ernesto
moves northward, remaining far east of the local waters. Seas
gradually subside Saturday, becoming 4-5 ft. Coverage of showers and
storms decrease each afternoon as a drier airmass builds across the
waters.

Marine Forecast:

THURSDAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 feet at 11 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.

FRIDAY
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 feet at 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.

SATURDAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.

The wind on Sunday needs to stay hidden for the day.

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I was right.

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 70 kt northeast of Ernesto's center, and
the crew reported a 50 percent eyewall. In addition, Tail Doppler
radar from the NOAA P-3 aircraft measured winds over 75 kt at an
elevation of 500 meters. Based on these data, Ernesto is upgraded
to a 65-kt hurricane.

Ernesto continues to move northwestward, or 310/14 kt, but is
expected to turn north-northwestward and northward later today and
tonight as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused
by a deep-layer trough off the east coast of the United States. This
trough is expected to leave Ernesto behind later this week, which
should cause a reduction in speed on Saturday and Sunday while the
storm is passing Bermuda. By early next week, a second trough
moving across the eastern United States should cause Ernesto to
accelerate toward the north and north-northeast over the waters
south of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement
during the first 48 hours, and the official forecast was only
shifted slightly westward to account for Ernesto's recent motion.
After 48 hours, there is more divergence in the track models, with
the GFS on the eastern edge of the envelope while the ECMWF shows
less turning and is on the western edge of the envelope. The NHC
forecast has been nudged westward during this period and is very
close to the dynamical hurricane models.

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days. That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.5N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 22.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 24.5N 69.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 30.4N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 36.0N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 42.6N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Surfline is suddenly more optimistic, especially for Sebastian Inlet. 2ndlight, not so much, Daytona not so much. Friday AM.

Edited: 08/14/2024 at 04:42 PM by ww