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Topic Title: Welcome to 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season!
Topic Summary:
Created On: 06/01/2024 11:59 AM
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 06/01/2024 11:59 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity
https://www.noaa.gov/news-rele...antic-hurricane-season
 06/01/2024 02:53 PM
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910surfer

Posts: 39
Joined Forum: 10/28/2017

They left out the Saharan dust factor.
 06/01/2024 04:28 PM
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tom

Posts: 8081
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

^And the new board curse. I'm doing my part, how about you? Support your local shaper.

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 06/02/2024 02:45 PM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 25633
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I'm getting a new roof in August. Definitely something before that.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 06/11/2024 09:38 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during
the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later
this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the
system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida
during the next few days. For more information, see products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Weather Prediction Center products can be found at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast
information can be found at www.weather.gov

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
 06/14/2024 08:10 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Gulf Of Mexico might have first named storm next week:

from NHC discussion:
For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will gradually weaken
through late today. A Central American Gyre is forecast to
develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad
area of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form over
the southwestern Gulf during the early or middle part of next
week. Active convection, along with increasing winds and building
seas are expected with this system.
 06/14/2024 08:13 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Wiki page for For the "Central American Gyre":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
 06/19/2024 03:23 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

First named storm:


Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO'S CENTER EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...
 06/27/2024 12:56 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 06/28/2024 12:31 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
 06/29/2024 03:40 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

5:50 AM Sat 6/29 | Tropical Storm Beryl is quickly moving westward toward the Windward Islands as it strengthens. Still too early to determine what, if any, impacts for Florida. Visit hurricanes.gov. #FLwx
 06/30/2024 05:54 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

That escalated quickly!!

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected maximum sustained winds in Summary

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

 06/30/2024 05:56 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
 07/01/2024 09:58 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52406
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

They used up the name Chris. On to the D's.


BULLETIN
Remnants Of Chris Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

...CHRIS DISSIPATES OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
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