Big.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

RR down south could be interesting

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, centered near 26N57W and with a minimum central
pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted N of 20N between 40W and 58W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it
meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By
Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and
interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting potential of
tropical transition after that time.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of a
26N57W to 28N48W line and E of 59E. These winds will increase
through tonight and reach storm force Wed in the general area
where gales are currently ongoing. Winds will then diminish
slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu night. Seas
are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W of the center,
with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 22N between 45W and
63W. The radius of hazardous seas will continue to expand over
the new few days, with waves reaching as high as 30 ft to the N
and W of the center Wed and Wed night. There is a medium chance of
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. More information about this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

I better start the sprints.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

That spinner out there looks like a tropical storm!

Is the "don't look here, there isn't a hurricane two weeks before Christmas," sending us the swell?

It looks way out and going the wrong way. Or is it another pressure gradient like the week before Nicole?

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I was right.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized
this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day
or so. By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance
for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Being that it is 'non-tropical' it looks like a lot of the wind fetch is pointed at us. Check the swell forecast...i.e. don't make any going-out-of-town plans this weekend!

Variable is the shitty bottoms we have. Hopefully the bigger swell allows it to break on the outside, rather than inside close-out dumps like we got now.

Probably should look to surf somewhere other than Brevard as the bottoms are really messed up. Not sure how other bottoms are.

Windy with the European model is suggesting that swell-wise, Saturday morning, Sebastian Inlet to Walton Rocks is where to be. PM me with a time and place and I might be happy to bring the camera.

This weekend doesn't look like the swell is hitting according to the notoriously mediocre Surfline, which has the biggest pulse hitting matting county starting Tuesday. Friday next week shows the waning swell and offshores finally coinciding.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Yea for a week long swell! Spin Baby Spin! Pre-christmas swell.

Just checking stormsurf virtual buoy...gonna be a long duration swell! (knock on wood)

Soup Bowl has been all time for the last several days.. 8-10' and OFFSHORE!!

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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

I check in on this YouTube channel from time to time looking for good surf clips from Barbados. Soon as I read Larry's post I had to check.
Soup Bowls

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure will produce generally favorable
boating conditions this morning, followed by a building swell from
late this afternoon into tonight. This will lead to increasingly
poor boating conditions for small craft operators well offshore.
Even Larger swells will propagate into the local waters Friday
through this weekend, creating hazardous boating conditions which
will last into early next week.

TODAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with
occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds.


FRIDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas to 9 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal
waters.


SATURDAY
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas to 9 feet.


SUNDAY
Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet.


MONDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet.

Wonder if that will be big enough to hit the outside bar? With low tide in late afternoon, most of the day will be deep. Getting off the beach should be entertaining...

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Yup. Curious minds want to know if a bigger swell with long periods will break on the outside, or just dump on the inside.

Tune in tomorrow!

it sure did - up here today! havn't seen that in a while. manana looking good. Sat and maybe sunday too

Kyle

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

North swell and north current might help this appalling sandbar issue was are suffering from. It most certainly can't hurt.

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I was right.

Windy's displays of waves and swell indicate a long event from this afternoon (Friday) into Wed. Yow.