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Topic Title: Invest 98L
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Created On: 11/06/2022 08:44 AM
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 11/09/2022 02:36 AM
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tom

Posts: 7701
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

Brevard has an evacuation recommendation, Zone A. Models have center hitting south again, Ft Laud, still coming in as a weak Cat 1. Still thinking about "rapid intensification", not good at forecasting that.

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 11/09/2022 04:20 AM
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ww

Posts: 15642
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

National Hurricane Center is giving Indian River (and more so, Brevard) fairly low probabilities of hurricane-force winds. Peak winds for Ft Pierce (likely heavier hit) show up on the European model 6-10 pm (check the Windy website). The National Hurricane Center has the European model very close to their track line.
 11/09/2022 04:32 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3284
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Flooding's the real concern with this storm... lots of water moving around: https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-72.68,33.14,1492live winds

Edited: 11/09/2022 at 04:33 AM by Plan B
 11/09/2022 07:35 AM
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Cole

Posts: 61134
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

We don't get much ten foot swell action, so our coast line isn't used to it. Now factor multiple days in a row and we might just end up with a problem. And as said above, the full moon doesn't help either, unless you are pro erosion.

Satellite's dirt sand? I'm thinking we can kiss that goodbye.

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I was right.

Edited: 11/09/2022 at 07:36 AM by Cole
 11/09/2022 07:41 AM
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Cole

Posts: 61134
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Update: Our coast isn't used to 20 foot swells. The 20 miler is at 20 feet. The outside 120 is at 26 feet. Toss in a bit of long-shore current and our beaches are going to get the Hassan CHOP!

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I was right.
 11/09/2022 07:48 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

Posts: 7022
Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

Flagler pier watch it , live. edit - still there

Edited: 11/10/2022 at 01:30 AM by StirfryMcflurry
 11/09/2022 10:02 AM
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grdsurf

Posts: 624
Joined Forum: 09/28/2004

So the $65,000 question is....how jacked up is the bottom going to be after this event? It hadn't yet fully recovered from the Ian induced "Trough Of Death" or TOD. The analog event in recent history would be Irma's bottom destruction which was noticeably worst than Ian. It seems that the S/SE current is more damaging than N/NE current. Of course the duration and intensity combined with direction ultimately determine the post event near shore bathymetry. Given the current 20ft buoy I'm thinking we could be stuck with a "show off" shore break setup for awhile, hope I'm wrong. Sometimes this amount of energy can create temporary channel setups that make a "X marks the spot" inside sandbar where you'll get a perfect left or right breaking into the channel every time. I've had the pleasure of scoring some of these rare occurrences over the years here on the Space Coast. I've also heard of a couple great setups just down the road but for some reason I never got word until after the magic was gone, hmm wonder why:> So....after this mess passes by maybe a little exploration would yield a cool setup ....we'll see.

Edited: 11/09/2022 at 10:04 AM by grdsurf
 11/11/2022 07:06 AM
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Cole

Posts: 61134
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I checked a few spots in my local area, and there is promise. A few of the larger lumpy sets reformed into some rip-able walls. I walked the beach at RC's yesterday and the set waves weren't even making it through the new and improved TOD.

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I was right.
FORUMS : Surfing : Invest 98L

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