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Topic Title: Chop City returns
Topic Summary: Maybe help the sandbars.
Created On: 11/03/2022 08:45 AM
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 11/03/2022 08:45 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

SYNOPSIS

A large ridge of high pressure covering the eastern
U.S. will build across the western Atlantic by Friday. Freshening
northeast winds and building seas will result in increasingly
poor to hazardous boating conditions. An area of low pressure will
gradually develop north of Hispaniola this weekend, producing
fresh to strong onshore winds, with seas building further into
next week.

Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
1010 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

THIS AFTERNOON
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet
with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. A
moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of
showers.

TONIGHT
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with
occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on
the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.

FRIDAY
Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with
occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A
moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of
showers.

FRIDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers.

SUNDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Chance of showers.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet
with occasional seas to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers.

MONDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas to 10 feet. Chance of showers.
 11/03/2022 09:47 AM
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ww

Posts: 15641
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

    Also from NWS:
    DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    A storm system is forecast to slowly develop north of Hispaniola by this weekend. Strong high pressure sill remain in place over the western Atlantic as the low begins to strengthen and movetoward the Florida peninsula.
    Boating and beach conditions will become very hazardous for a prolonged period from Friday through this weekend and into the middle of next week with persistent, increasing northeast to east winds. Rough, pounding surf and large breaking waves will have the potential to produce significant beach erosion around the times of high tide for several cycles. Conditions will be extremely dangerous in the surf zone, and entering the water is strongly discouraged until conditions start to improve late next week.
    Surf-forecast shows serious wave energy for the weekend. New Smyrna Inlet had the highest energy number. Too bad it'll be a mess


Edited: 11/03/2022 at 10:13 AM by ww
 11/03/2022 10:22 AM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 22761
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I am excited. No waiting for sets, no crowds and size. I have a fat twinnie that puts mustard on that.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 11/03/2022 11:55 AM
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tom

Posts: 7692
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

Check the NHC map for fun. Two named storms, two areas of disturbance, and it's November. Wheeee! Um, which day for the wind switch?

-------------------------
add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 11/03/2022 12:27 PM
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ww

Posts: 15641
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Have weather resistant camera. Happy to document messing with messy conditions
 11/03/2022 12:51 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lisa, located inland over southeastern Mexico, and on
Hurricane Martin, located over the central North Atlantic.

1. East of Bermuda:
A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of Bermuda continues to produce a few disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical or subtropical development
of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next few days
as it moves slowly southward today and then turns westward by the
weekend. The system is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure
area developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend and
further development is not anticipated at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this
weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern
Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and
disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual
subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while
it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 11/03/2022 01:52 PM
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SurfCaster

Posts: 492
Joined Forum: 02/02/2007

Cue the sea lice

-------------------------
"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"
 11/03/2022 04:07 PM
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pompano

Posts: 5784
Joined Forum: 01/06/2005

large swells generally remove sand from the beach and pull it offshore. North wind and swell will move the sand from North to South. Makes for cool little sinusoidal patterns at the shoreline though. At least the period is around 10sec, so might not take so much sand off the beach.
 11/04/2022 12:00 AM
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ww

Posts: 15641
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Surf-forecast's energy forecast for New Smyrna Inlet for Tuesday is crazy. 30 mph wind?
 11/04/2022 07:45 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Can change of course, but models have a low pressure moving into Miami area on Thursday the 10th. Virtual buoys have it 15 feet swells. Choppy mess.
 11/04/2022 10:47 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

Posts: 6925
Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

Originally posted by: ww Surf-forecast's energy forecast for New Smyrna Inlet for Tuesday is crazy. 30 mph wind?
& 56 mph for St Johns county on Thurs
 11/05/2022 04:30 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003


2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 11/05/2022 10:00 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Head's Up...Models changing!


1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday
where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of
Hispaniola. The system is initially expected to be very broad and
disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form during the early to middle portion of next week while
the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 11/05/2022 02:58 PM
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surfnole

Posts: 425
Joined Forum: 07/28/2003

Dup

Edited: 11/05/2022 at 02:59 PM by surfnole
 11/05/2022 02:58 PM
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surfnole

Posts: 425
Joined Forum: 07/28/2003

Winds calmed down. Only three guys out in front and they're destroying it.

Edited: 11/05/2022 at 03:00 PM by surfnole
 11/06/2022 04:26 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 18178
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003



-------------------------
"End of quote. Repeat the line."
 11/06/2022 05:33 PM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 22761
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Got to chop surf today. It was more fun than it looked and it was no picnic on the inside. Lots of big unconnected peaks and occasional open face connections.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 11/07/2022 04:14 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51252
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003


000
WTNT42 KNHC 070900
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better
organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east
of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification
of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward,
or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days,
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast
intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows
the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week.

2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
FORUMS : Surfing : Chop City returns

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