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Topic Title: Tropical Storm Earl
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Created On: 09/03/2022 07:09 AM
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 09/03/2022 07:09 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Satellite imagery and radar data from Guadeloupe show that Earl
remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
located to the west of the main convective mass. Various satellite
intensity estimates are in the 25-45 kt range and have changed
little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial
intensity remains 35 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will
investigate Earl starting near 1000 UTC.

The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance remains in good
agreement that Earl should move west-northwestward and
northwestward with a decrease in forward speed for the next couple
of days as it is steered by the subtropical ridge. There is little
change in this part of the forecast track from the previous
advisory. After that time, a slower motion toward the north and
eventually north-northeast is expected as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the Atlantic to the west and north of Earl.
The guidance envelope for the latter part of the forecast track has
shifted eastward, and while the new forecast track is also nudged
eastward it is west of the consensus models from 60-120 h.

Earl is feeling the effects of moderate westerly shear, and current
indications are this will continue for the next 48 h or so. Thus,
the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during this
time. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain as Earl turns
northward. While some shear is likely to continue, the dynamical
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will strengthen,
possibly due to a favorable interaction to the aforementioned
upper-level trough. However, there is poor agreement between the
models in the details of this interaction. Given that, the
intensity forecast from 72-120 h will show a little more
strengthening than the previous forecast. However, the forecast
intensities are on the low side of the guidance envelope.

Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to remain on the northern
and eastern side of the circulation, and as a result, are not
expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, any southward shift of Earl's
center would increase the risk of tropical-storm-force winds in
those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.

2. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
Rapid rises on rivers are possible in Puerto Rico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.2N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.6N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.2N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.6N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 24.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 25.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
 09/03/2022 10:33 AM
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Cole

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1. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to pass near or just to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. Gusty winds, especially in squalls,
area possible on those islands over the next day or two.


I believe that puts the swell in our window. Earl has a nice ring to it too. "Did you score some of the Earl swell?"

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So long and thanks for all the fish.
 09/03/2022 01:54 PM
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LaJune

Posts: 60
Joined Forum: 10/04/2015

Earl gonna unfurl and hurl us some pearls.

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 09/03/2022 03:17 PM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022

Earl has strengthened this afternoon. Satellite data indicate the
previously exposed low-level center of the cyclone has been drawn
underneath an area of deep convection, with cloud top temperatures
colder than -70C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
recently investigated the storm reported max flight-level (925 mb)
winds of 56 kt. This would support surface winds between 40 and 45
kt using a standard reduction factor. Based on these data, the
cyclone's improved satellite structure, and falling surface
pressures throughout the day, the initial intensity of Earl is
raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone has strengthened some today despite facing moderate
deep-layer southwesterly shear. The shear is forecast to persist or
even increase during the next couple of days, so some fluctuation in
intensity is possible if the deep convection gets stripped away and
the center becomes exposed again. But, sea-surface temperatures
greater than 29C should continue to support convective development,
and the overall trend in the latest intensity guidance favors at
least slow strengthening into early next week. Then, the models
suggest that favorable interaction with an upper-level trough over
the warm waters of the western Atlantic will promote additional
strengthening, along with a broadening of the wind field. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been raised closer to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids, and it now brings Earl up to hurricane strength at
days 4-5.

The initial motion of Earl is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The
general forecast track reasoning has not changed. Earl is expected
to slow down as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over
the next couple of days. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should
allow the cyclone to gradually turn northward early next week, then
move northeastward as it becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is
very similar to the previous forecast and lies slightly to the left
of the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the
northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected
to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or
Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these
locations through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Earl is expected to lead to limited flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts over the Leeward Islands,
U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Rapid
rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are possible
in Puerto Rico.

2. Earl is forecast to pass to the north of the the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds, especially in
squalls, area possible on those islands through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.5N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.2N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 24.1N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.6N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.7N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
 09/03/2022 03:41 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

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TomPetty's middle name is makin waves!
 09/03/2022 05:16 PM
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KP

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Joined Forum: 07/28/2006

Let's do dis!!!



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Time and tide wait for no one.....
 09/04/2022 10:38 AM
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tom

Posts: 7623
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

Maybe a little from Dannie tomorrow? On a holiday? Naaaa...

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 09/04/2022 10:42 AM
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tom

Posts: 7623
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Oops, forgot, anti-jinx. Wink, turn around twice quick and spit. Whew.

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 09/04/2022 10:44 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 18009
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only knew him as Tom

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 09/04/2022 01:53 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 51105
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

After 72 h, shear is expected to decrease, and
more robust intensification is possible thereafter, with the latest
intensity forecast now making Earl a major hurricane by 120 h, in
good agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.
 09/04/2022 02:02 PM
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dingpatch

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003



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 09/04/2022 02:23 PM
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dingpatch

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Could be a "Major" by Friday !!

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 09/04/2022 02:38 PM
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chopola

Posts: 1562
Joined Forum: 09/04/2004

If we get a trickle of swell from this one we will be lucky.
 09/04/2022 02:58 PM
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dingpatch

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

And, , , , , the thing that just exited off the coast of Africa is forecast to do an Earl but, much further out in the Atlantic from us, , , , ,

Fish spinners.

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 09/04/2022 06:05 PM
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ww

Posts: 15560
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Surfline is suggesting something for around Sept 13-14. Perhaps more interesting, Surf-Forecast.com is predicting 1000 kilojoules at some Brevard beaches southward for Mon. 12.
 09/05/2022 05:01 AM
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eastcoastersrule

Posts: 100
Joined Forum: 04/04/2009

There's got to be at least a 3' swell before Sept 13th with 2 storms churning out there Where are these waves going? Where are the generated waves breaking? Hatteras? Bermuda?
 09/05/2022 05:11 AM
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tom

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Pretty morning. No good news.

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 09/05/2022 08:11 AM
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Cole

Posts: 60201
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Originally posted by: chopola

If we get a trickle of swell from this one we will be lucky.


Chest to head, with larger sets. Questionable form in Central Brevard.



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So long and thanks for all the fish.
 09/05/2022 08:21 AM
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dingpatch

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003



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"End of quote. Repeat the line."
 09/05/2022 08:32 AM
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tom

Posts: 7623
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Cole - Report or Forecast? Your spot must be waaay better than mine?

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