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Topic Title: Possible Trop Depression
Topic Summary: Waaay out in the Atlantic.
Created On: 06/24/2022 01:19 PM
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 06/24/2022 01:19 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50804
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

No swell in the forecast from this. Maybe Barbados.
Long range has it going into Caribbean.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 06/27/2022 06:19 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical
wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that
the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the
plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the
northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some
cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well
organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance
will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward
Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for
development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that
bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA.

Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the
initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical
ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system
through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a
west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
 06/29/2022 11:19 AM
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hairyDUDE

Posts: 252
Joined Forum: 09/10/2003

Dave -- what's the outlook for the weekend? I need to get the mold off my skin (missed the last swell)...

-------------------------
Uga Uga!!!
 06/30/2022 10:12 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50804
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

outlook for the weekend?

Small SE wind chop. 2 foot maybe 3. I'd imagine if want bigger surf go to New Smyrna.
 07/01/2022 06:53 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Got named today. In the Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica.

Tropical Storm Bonnie
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
 07/04/2022 04:13 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Crazy that a tropical wave in the Atlantic is now a Hurricane in the Pacific.

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 07/04/2022 04:18 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50804
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well
organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye
and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better
established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt
and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial
intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data.

Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged
over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could
strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the
intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it
seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early
Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will
likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the
15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday,
but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters,
especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest
little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady
weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier
air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the
guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48
hours.

The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest
side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is
expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to
west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some
speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show
a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
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