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Topic Title: Big Surf coming up. Topic Summary: Created On: 11/04/2021 08:02 AM |
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11/04/2021 08:02 AM
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If you have been watching the wave models it's pretty obvious we got some weather coming with big surf starting this weekend and next week!
.COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides, occurring at the same time as strong northeast winds that develop behind the cold front, is expected to lead to coastal flooding in some locations starting Friday morning into the weekend. Some increase in water levels along the coast will first be noticed during the high tide cycle early this morning, then become more pronounced during the high tides on the mornings of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. With that, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the aforementioned period. A High Surf Advisory and/or High Risk of Rip Currents is possibly needed to be issued sometime today or tonight. Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- 940 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021 THIS AFTERNOON North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. TONIGHT Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. FRIDAY Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. FRIDAY NIGHT East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. SATURDAY North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. SATURDAY NIGHT North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. SUNDAY North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Slight chance of showers. SUNDAY NIGHT North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Slight chance of showers. MONDAY North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. |
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11/04/2021 08:15 AM
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snippets from NWS melbourne Wx discussion:
Fri-Sat...Wet and unsettled pattern expected Friday into Friday night, as low pressure pushes eastward across the FL peninsula along a stalled front near to just north of Lake Okeechobee. Strengthening mid-upper level trough/closed low moving through the Southeast U.S. will deepen this low pressure at the sfc as it shifts just offshore the east central Florida coast late Friday night into early weekend. This will lead to increasing northerly winds producing breezy/windy conditions across much of east central FL into Saturday. Sun-Wed...Closed low/trough aloft pushes off the southeast U.S. coast into Sunday, shifting deepening low pressure farther E/NE of the area. High pressure gradually builds in behind this system and across the area from early to middle of next week, with low level winds gradually veering from northerly Sun-Mon to onshore into Tue- Wed. Drier air continues to build into the area, with only a slight chance of showers along the coast into Sunday. PoPs then remain out of the forecast Mon-Tue, before some slight moistening in the lower levels may bring back a few onshore moving showers into Wednesday, mainly near to south of the Cape. Breezy conditions may persist, especially along the coast into Sun-Mon, before wind speeds then decrease toward mid-week. Highs in the low to mid 70s on Sunday will slowly warm through the period, back into the low 80s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the 50s to low 60s over much of the area Sunday and Monday nights, and then rise slightly into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Fri-Sun...Low pressure will cross central FL and deepen off the east central FL coast into late Friday-Saturday. Winds will gradually increase out of the E/NE up to 15-20 knots on Friday with additional increases expected into Saturday as winds back to the N/NW. Some uncertainly remains in exact position of low pressure and how long it lingers off the coast, but solid SCA conditions will likely occur as northerly winds increase up to 20-25 knots and seas build into the weekend (forecast up to 10-14 feet currently). However, some model guidance even indicates Gale conditions could be possible over the coastal waters, on the west side of this strengthening low pressure as it moves slowly E/NE from Saturday into Saturday night. Mariners should keep a close eye on the forecast for late week into the weekend for any significant changes, and at least expect poor to hazardous boating conditions developing into Friday, that will continue to deteriorate through the weekend. Mon...Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to continue into early next week with N/NE winds up to 15-20 knots and seas up to 7-11 feet. |
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11/04/2021 08:17 AM
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Viva la Victory-At-Sea!
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11/04/2021 12:40 PM
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As of today. Surfline puts the wind offshore down here in Palm Beach county for Saturday afternoon and Sunday.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/04/2021 01:46 PM
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No kidding. Drift Session for sure. Expect plenty of kites out there.
------------------------- Reggae Music for Good Causes |
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11/04/2021 05:13 PM
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55 degrees in the morning. Heavy wind. Going to be crazy.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/05/2021 05:06 AM
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James Weiland the weatherman is bringing me back to earth: SUNDAY: NE swell picks up shoulder-head-overhead high and peaky with some power. Hard north tilt will open some lines up too. Might be a barrel-fest at some spots. could push farther south eventually. Wind breezy offshore (NW) in the morning and only turning NNW in the afternoon so staying relatively clean all day.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/05/2021 05:40 AM
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Already blowing galeforce here in St. Aug... and rain forecast is 5" ++
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11/05/2021 06:34 AM
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Some forecasters are calling for OFFSHORES Sunday 3'-5' foot swell with 7-9 sec period intervals!!! Im getting giddy!!!!
------------------------- SK8 AND DESTROY |
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11/05/2021 06:47 AM
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Me too, but 20/30mph offshores might need a wave runner to get you in. Hoping for a window with lighter winds.
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11/05/2021 06:51 AM
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Low pressure formed in the Gulf overnight.
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11/05/2021 06:54 AM
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Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
405 AM EDT Fri Nov 5 2021 SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... TODAY East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. SATURDAY West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. SATURDAY NIGHT Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers. SUNDAY Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. SUNDAY NIGHT North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers. MONDAY North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. MONDAY NIGHT North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. TUESDAY Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. |
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11/05/2021 06:55 AM
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In other news, the NHC named Tropical Storm Wanda. Not a wave maker for us as it is way out in the North Atlantic.
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11/05/2021 08:03 AM
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a workingmans swell 2 weekends in a row, a very Rare event for us South Floridians
------------------------- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw |
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11/05/2021 01:09 PM
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European model and US GFS are giving very different swell forecasts. European bigger.
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11/05/2021 04:04 PM
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Trending a bit smaller for the weekend down here
------------------------- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw |
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11/05/2021 07:02 PM
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Swell has refracto written all over it
------------------------- "If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!" |
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11/06/2021 03:03 AM
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20 miler this AM.
------------------------- add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway |
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11/06/2021 06:54 AM
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11/06/2021 07:25 AM
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forget that call for small size, its going to be sizable take a look at boyton inlet cam
------------------------- "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw |
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Big Surf coming up.
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