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Topic Title: Next up this week.
Topic Summary: NHC Monday morning outlook:
Created On: 09/13/2021 06:48 AM
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 09/13/2021 06:48 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 09/13/2021 06:49 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Models keep the low East of Bahamas weak. Virtual buoys show small bump coming up. Shows recurve and away from land. Hopefully gets stronger than forecast for better surf.

 09/13/2021 06:52 AM
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johnnyboy

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I have yet to see any models showing a swell for this.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 09/13/2021 07:01 AM
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Central Floridave

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Both magicseaweed and stormsurf shows 2-3 feet mid-week. But that is debatable. Probably not showing due to that it is just speculation at this point. NHC says 50 percent chance to form so going on that. Models do show a small flare up, but...just something to watch.

For 1, tropical wave off of Africa, long range models do show it traverse the ITCZ as a spinny thing. But, small and weak. 80 percent chance of formation and so far away nothing will show from that unless it gets stronger.

 09/13/2021 10:17 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: johnnyboy I have yet to see any models showing a swell for this.
The EURO and GFS both show them, but with only minor intensification.... havent really looked too hard but I'm guessing it runs into some wind shear. Euro is quite a bit more bullish on the one off africa, but it was also overly bullish on larry. we'll see. A few days of solid surf has me fired up again,.... ready for more
 09/13/2021 03:15 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: Central Floridave Both magicseaweed and stormsurf shows 2-3 feet mid-week. Models do show a small flare up, but...just something to watch.
LIKED & SUBSCRIBED

-------------------------
Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/13/2021 03:45 PM
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Central Floridave

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Monday Afternoon model runs keep the thing very weak. Probably nada.


2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 09/13/2021 05:35 PM
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scombrid

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Check the GFS for the 25th. Latest run is excited about a Cabo verde system.

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 09/14/2021 07:17 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50065
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas
coastal plain near Houston.

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands. A
ssociated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or
two a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central
Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.
Some gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form later this week while the system
moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic
.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 09/15/2021 04:35 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: scombrid Check the GFS for the 25th. Latest run is excited about a Cabo verde system.
Interesting to say the least, but EURO isnt on board at all.... Pretty stark dichotomy. GFS was more accurate with the Larry forecast, but I want to see the EURO at least hint at this before I sport a chub. (GFS historically gets super bullish on initial storm runs, so we'll see....) but with the NHC on board, and bullish, it's promising..... if forecast is accurate the NE is going to be firing..... NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Edited: 09/15/2021 at 06:04 AM by Plan B
 09/15/2021 06:24 AM
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scombrid

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Yeah. GFS has been doing really well for Caribbean, Gulf, and west Atlantic this summer. Remains to be seen if it has this latest Cabo Verde system worked out. This morning has yet another storm forming between here and Bermuda on the 22nd. Interesting forecast.

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...

 09/15/2021 06:29 AM
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scombrid

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I'm supposed to be at an OC-6 race on the West Coast on the 25th. Consider that my personal sacrifice.

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 09/15/2021 07:38 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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thanks! & good luck, scom!

-------------------------
Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/15/2021 11:08 AM
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Plan B

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How yoooo doin'?!?
 09/15/2021 11:49 AM
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scombrid

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Fabian 2.0? I was on Hatteras for that one. Got offshore winds at Salvo and Billy Mitchel all in one day because the front came through late morning and the wind went from SW to N about mid morning.

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 09/15/2021 11:52 AM
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scombrid

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Hah, the evolution of the model runs is going to be fun to watch that far out. Animation I just watched has it stalling between there and Bermuda for a couple of days.

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 09/15/2021 12:00 PM
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Lunchmeat

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Joined Forum: 08/02/2003

Couldn't ask for a better bday present, preseason PR swell??
 09/16/2021 04:01 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3246
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Originally posted by: Plan B Interesting to say the least, but EURO isnt on board at all.... Pretty stark dichotomy. GFS was more accurate with the Larry forecast, but I want to see the EURO at least hint at this before I sport a chub. (GFS historically gets super bullish on initial storm runs, so we'll see....)
 09/16/2021 07:17 AM
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johnnyboy

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I want to believe in the stall. So bad.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 09/16/2021 07:20 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 17766
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Billy Mitchell Scom! Scored a sick left there, just an excellent wave with the offshore and such.

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FORUMS : Surfing : Next up this week.

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