Could we finally have a solid swell producing "fish" storm? Looks like it. Doesnt look to get close enough to get huge, but I'll take some solid clean long period swell, esp after the past few years.... and I'll be happy to drive 10 minutes, not 10 hours for good surf too.... 60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

Edited: 08/31/2021 at 03:03 PM by Plan B

Plan B .... I will do what I can for ya and speak to my other brother Larry


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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

Wake me up when it happens. But, thanks for setting the alarm clock!

Tell Larry to wash down some steroids with alot of warm seawater...... then twist one and chill in place for a few days... for the Newhart reference though

Edited: 08/31/2021 at 05:21 PM by Plan B

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over
and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and
SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt
from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support
increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone
Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC
observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the
center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25
kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of
1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt.

Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the
new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around
the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling
Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general
west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the
weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a
pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with
the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36
hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi,
and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost
track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and
UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the
guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward
shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS
solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also
been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA
corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA
simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the
north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by
the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted
farther west.

Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind
data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface
temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly
vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for
the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a
hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind
field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with
Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due
to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all
of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the
same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane
Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous
advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and
conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC,
FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper
end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus
intensity models.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Man that 5AM update on Larry said everything a tropical swell starved surfer wants to hear.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

Larry, tell your brother to SLOW DOWN! no need to be in such a rush....

come on ride that train choochoo and ride it!

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life

Trying dude, trying. Talking to him about doing the Belle stall and slow crawl



-------------------------
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

I have an older brother named Larry, does that help?

It's gonna be good it's gonna be good it's gonna be good.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

The more Larrys the better!

The intensity guidance basically keeps a steady intensity from 60-120 h, and the official forecast follows that trend. However, this part of the intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance, and it is possible Larry could be stronger than forecast during this time..... Sooooo are they saying just might be cat 10 perfect set up for swell next week, let's hope he doesn't decided to visit land anywhere!!!

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Major hurricane by Friday-wow.
Cat3 by Saturday. Here's hoping Larry stays far offshore.

Time to up the laps in the pool!

EURO predicting a tighter more intense storm (borderline cat4) but more importantly slower moving, giving us an extra day of swell..... GFS, slightly less intense, but broader windfield (good), but moving faster...... this year, GFS has seemed to be more accurate, but looks like NHC is siding with the EURO, so we'll see..... good waves either way, as long as local winds cooperate, still a week out, so we'll which day is worth playing hookey..... Yes, I am a nerd

Edited: 09/02/2021 at 04:58 AM by Plan B

Check those virtual buoys! Wowsa... Yes, please be favorable local winds. We need this. been a long time since big swell around these parts.

Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.

There's always "That guy"