3' ,, yay ;^)

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ola ~

00Z model runs (Wed morning) still doesn't make this a major swell maker. hmm...Strange.

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this
morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest
of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still
appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar
presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16
BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain
steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for
further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear
continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core
convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is
expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical
SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear
component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear
should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis
off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further
intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow
becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model
and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high
amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast
of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36
hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change
in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the
northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion
of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global
and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left
of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

Appears we should get some type of a swell from Henri.

Check the buoys off Bermuda..... not exactly rocking. Small fetch will need the intensity to really ramp up to compensate, which it should soon. I'm not expecting much, but I'll be happy with punchy chest high clean swell for now, hopefully it defies the odds..... wish the tides were reversed.

If GFS forecast holds = EURO=

2-4' @ 11-12 seconds Friday afternoon per GFS wave model

& bigger n of the cape It's ON

The internet told me to be hopeful. The internet told me to forget about it. Open your eyes, figure it out for yourself.

I will go!!!! Then I will decide about the internet.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

... EVERYONE.... 2nd Light will be the BEST spot on the East Coast for this one. GO THERE AND SCORE!

I literally walk across the street half dozen times a day to look at the actual wave I'm going to surf . I still spend hours a day on the net looking at predictions and cams. Stop worrying about what I do. If everyone stopped telling peeps what to do on social media Maybe folks wouldn't b so angry when they get in the water w actual surf. LOL ... and if me telling u to stop telling me what to do is part of the problem then ur hopeless.

Does anyone think the positioning of Henri in any way resembles Kyle?

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Wavemaker, yeah

I love that track, felt like we haven't had one of these in a while

That's the 2nd person to use Kyle's name in vain....

ASCAT finally made a pass in the region.... you can see the windfield is pretty small (tiny compared to Grace) so moving west to 72+ will greatly increase size potential for our surf..... still excited about the potential to able to ride a regular shortboard though

Edited: 08/18/2021 at 09:56 AM by Plan B

yes to the "regular shortboard". Been riding my 5'!!" Neilson thruster if it gets any push. mega shakas...

Virtual buoys finally responded with better data. Check your favorite wave models (unless you are chopola and just stick your finger in the air for wind direction and wait to see people run across A1A with boards to know there are waves. )

Why do the tides have to ruin the party?

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Ah, religion, bigotry dressed up as morality.