Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 190 miles
east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the center.
However, any additional increase in organization of the thunderstorm
activity would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical
depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the
system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia
by this evening. If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm
warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few
inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia
and southern South Carolina through Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 31N77W, about 300 nm ESE of
the Georgia coast. Disorganized numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted displaced N and W of the center due to
strong upper level wind shear. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring N
of 29N between 73W and 78W, with strong mainly SE winds being
observed in this same area. The low is forecast to move quickly
WNW at 10 to 20 mph, crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
later this morning. There is potential this low develops into a
tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of
Georgia or southern South Carolina this evening, thus tropical
storm warnings may be required for portions of the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts. Regardless of developing, locally heavy
rainfall can be expected along the immediate coasts and adjacent
waters. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on this afternoon, if
necessary. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is medium.

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system
that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed
into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this
morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution
visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep
convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted
northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear
pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is
consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32
kt just north of the well-defined center.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone
is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion
for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the
south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small
cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when
the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and
ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant
inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered
more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as
depicted by the global and regional models.

There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the
depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall
occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing
over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are
around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to
interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just
offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to
landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows
the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a
result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of
the South Carolina coast.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more
detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina
and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast
Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the
southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect
portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

Prob not from the Low to the North but 20 mile buoy reads 5 feet 11 seconds from the East this afternoon.

Super fun surf post work today. Go get some before sunset!

Thanks. I'm hitting it in the morning.

There goes the "D" storm name. Danny.


Tropical Storm Danny Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...TROPICAL STORM DANNY STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what
is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt
winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt
surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston
radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which
also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft
dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on
these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to
maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with
landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely
occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone
should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and
eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected
over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track
models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX.

No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes
landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall,
with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning.
The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS
statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity
consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina
and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast
Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the
southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect
portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

S CB blowing Up late afternoon!!!

OMG. I CAN'T BELIEVE I SCORED TONIGHT! BW dawn patrol on the 9'0 and I caught a few nice grovelers. Get home from work and grab the same board again and there were legit head high sets lining up all the way to the Beach! FINALLY!

Yeah - swell in the water last night was gone this morning.

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One more time.

Sure had fun today in fort piss.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.