Hang 10... or as they now say...hit the lip!

2nd Light Forums
Decrease font size
Increase font size
Topic Title: Gulf Surfer's head's up for this week.
Topic Summary: Weather models have this blooming mid-week in mid-Gulf.
Created On: 06/12/2021 08:15 AM
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch
1 2 Next Last unread
Topic Tools Topic Tools
View topic in raw text format. Print this topic.
 06/12/2021 08:15 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Weather models have this blooming mid-week in mid-Gulf.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of
Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly
and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area
by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 06/13/2021 08:02 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form
in this area late in the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake
 06/13/2021 08:03 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

long range shows low moving more west towards Texas coast now. But...long range...take it with a grain of salt...
 06/13/2021 03:02 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


dingpatch

Posts: 16728
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

 06/14/2021 10:23 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


johnnyboy

Posts: 19742
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Watching this with great hope.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 06/14/2021 12:51 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


johnnyboy

Posts: 19742
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

So far it looks like its only happening in the panhandle and its got terrible onshores.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 06/15/2021 12:44 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


dingpatch

Posts: 16728
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

 06/16/2021 07:04 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

So far models keep it weak and wash out into Texas to Florida panhandle. Models don't have a good grip on it. Here we go!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area over
the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas has become a little
better organized since yesterday. This system will move little
tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time
due to interaction with land. However, the low should begin to
move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 06/17/2021 04:59 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


dingpatch

Posts: 16728
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

 06/18/2021 05:11 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


SurferMic

Posts: 1195
Joined Forum: 06/30/2012

...

Edited: 06/18/2021 at 06:52 AM by SurferMic
 06/18/2021 06:20 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

"Potential". Hope/Hype...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The system became a little better organized overnight at the
northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show increasing deep convection
along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the
ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to
the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system
remains a potential tropical cyclone. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown
over a larger area on the east side of the circulation.

The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12. There is fair
agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the
center, will continue as the system remains steered by a
subtropical ridge to the southeast. The low should then turn
northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S. No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and
the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted
that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the
center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression
on the forecast track if used by themselves.

There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that
should continue through landfall. However, the system is somewhat
hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification
to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical
characteristics). Model guidance is consistent with slow
strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the
previous one. After landfall, most of the global models show a
strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting
on the southeastern side. The expected large distance from the
center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the
northwestern Florida panhandle. The system will likely dissipate in
about 3 days over the southeastern United States.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with
flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern
Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 25.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 06/18/2021 06:21 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

There is no wind fetch pointed at Florida with this one...back to the drawing board!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-91.60,24.73,2520
 06/18/2021 06:55 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


LBLarry

Posts: 4400
Joined Forum: 05/25/2004

Originally posted by: Central Floridave

There is no wind fetch pointed at Florida with this one...back to the drawing board!


Technically, the Panhandle is Florida



-------------------------
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.
 06/18/2021 08:45 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Technically, yes, but realistically its LA, Lower Alabama. .
http://pensacolasurf.com/
 06/19/2021 08:16 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

C Name used. On to D.


Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
 06/19/2021 04:21 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Cole

Posts: 53260
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

It's to regain Tropical Storm force winds while it's over land? That's different,

-------------------------
So long and thanks for all the fish.
 06/20/2021 07:51 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


johnnyboy

Posts: 19742
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Pensacola looks decent this morning. Not a nine hour drive worth it but decent.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 06/21/2021 06:56 PM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of
Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp
south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In
addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the
cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt
at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been
increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to
continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight
ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is
moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the
cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward
speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track,
and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance
suite.

Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in
strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over
sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead
of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical
extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition
could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.5N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 06/22/2021 03:46 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


seaspray

Posts: 492
Joined Forum: 05/10/2012

Some long period ticks on the Canaveral Buoy
 06/22/2021 05:34 AM
User is offline View Users Profile Print this message


Central Floridave

Posts: 49738
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

From the ESE though. Prob one of those mystery southern hemi swells.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/stat...page.php?station=41113
FORUMS : Surfing : Gulf Surfer's head's up for this week.

1 2 Next Last unread
Topic Tools Topic Tools
Statistics
146220 users are registered to the 2nd Light Forums forum.
There are currently 2 users logged in to the forum.

FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2021 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.

Hey Matt B ... How the hell o are you ??? :)