2nd Light Forums |
Topic Title: Gulf coast surprise Topic Summary: Delta Created On: 10/06/2020 08:46 AM |
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch |
|
Topic Tools
|
10/06/2020 08:46 AM
|
|
Looks like pushing most of the swell out in front towards s TX, but maybe after it makes that turn on Friday might save a little fun for weekend panhandle not sure if Tampa Bay area gets much, still really fun to surf over there even if just few feet. Could be worth driving - stay tuned and of course let's hope this thing doesn't stay at major status when making landfall northern gulf coast as those folks had enough this year!!! http://nhc.noaa.gov
------------------------- get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :) |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 09:41 AM
|
|
140mph. wowsa. 120 forecast yesterday. up 20mph.
INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 12:05 PM
|
|
It's crazy how fast these things strengthen. It didn't used to be like this.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 12:13 PM
|
|
.
Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:28 PM by SurferMic |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 12:15 PM
|
|
Don't blink, it is Cat 4 already.
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 12:27 PM
|
|
There was an open campsite at St. Andrews..... called a friend, then it was gone. No mas....
|
|
|
|
10/06/2020 12:43 PM
|
|
How about some recs for central gulf ;usually do Venice Jetty but thinking farther north . Not panhandle ....
|
|
|
|
10/06/2020 01:22 PM
|
|
.
Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:28 PM by SurferMic |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 01:34 PM
|
|
yeah, lot of variables... including size & timing of surf. we'll see.....
|
|
|
|
10/06/2020 01:35 PM
|
|
.
Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:29 PM by SurferMic |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 01:48 PM
|
|
SurferMic has style!
|
|
|
|
10/06/2020 03:41 PM
|
|
That triggers a memory, as a kid we used to stay in Mexico Beach and do Cape San Blas in a 4x4 jeep, then wade for scallops in the bay. Not a single person in sight for miles and miles. Lots of sizable sharks as I recall.
------------------------- I was right. |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 05:55 PM
|
|
https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/weather/2020/10/06/watch--major-hurricane-delta-set-to-strike-mexico
------------------------- Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing. |
|
|
|
10/06/2020 07:19 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/06/2020 07:37 PM
|
|
Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:51 PM by SurferMic |
|
|
|
10/07/2020 04:23 AM
|
|
Edited: 10/07/2020 at 04:28 AM by ww |
|
|
|
10/07/2020 02:59 PM
|
|
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 The center of Delta has moved off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and is now located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane remains well organized in satellite imagery with a large curved band wrapping around the center and a fairly symmetric CDO. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has provided a few center fixes this afternoon, and found that Delta's passage over land has resulted in weakening, and the initial wind speed is set at 75 kt, which is based on a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt. The aircraft also reported a minimum pressure of 977 mb on its final center penetration, and data from the plane indicate that there has been some increase in the radius of maximum winds. Re-strengthening is anticipated over the next 24-36 hours while Delta moves within a favorable upper-level environment and over the relatively deep warm waters of the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Most of the intensity guidance brings Delta back up to major hurricane status, and so does the official forecast. The global models also significantly deepen Delta during the next 36 hours, lending confidence to re-intensification. After 36 hours, increasing shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause some decrease in intensity before Delta makes landfall, however the hurricane's wind field is forecast to expand, which will increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of Delta's landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong winds are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and northern Gulf coast. Delta has been moving on a consistent northwestward heading of 305 degrees at about 15 kt. Delta should continue on this general heading with some reduction in forward speed tonight and early Thursday as it approaches the western extent of the subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is forecast to slide eastward over the next couple of days, which is expected to cause Delta to turn north-northwestward on Thursday, and northward toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion in 48-60 hours will bring the center onshore along the northern Gulf coast late Friday. The cross track spread in the dynamical models has decreased this cycle, with the model predictions converging on the previous NHC track forecast. Therefore, little change has been made to the previous official forecast, and it lies near the center of the now tightly clustered guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Winds and water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will gradually subside this evening. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to significant flash flooding, will affect the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. 2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
|
|
|
10/07/2020 04:28 PM
|
|
Hmmm......
Seems I remember a storm awhile back. Came thru miami as I worked Latin Grammy's. "Just a mere cat 1" Then it went and creamed yucatan where friends were filming a major movie. And then: shredded new orleans into the stone age. Any guesses? "Climate change is a Chinese hoax....." ------------------------- It's a democratic hoax |
|
|
|
10/08/2020 08:08 AM
|
|
There is not a lot to look forward to south of Fort Walton, and even there, the wind looks to be a problem.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
|
|
|
10/08/2020 10:08 AM
|
|
Another spinner south of Cuba.
http://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.go...S16-TAW-13-900x540.gif ------------------------- I was right. |
|
|
|
FORUMS
:
Surfing
:
Gulf coast surprise
|
Topic Tools
|
FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2024 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.
First there was Air Jordan .