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Topic Title: Tropics strangely quiet now
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Created On: 09/25/2020 11:47 AM
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 09/25/2020 11:47 AM
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sw

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Today:



Exactly two weeks ago:


 09/25/2020 01:13 PM
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Central Floridave

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Time to get some yard work done!
 09/25/2020 07:14 PM
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Cole

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Tropics strangely quiet now

Good.
 09/29/2020 06:46 AM
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sw

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Still totally quiet in the tropics...very strange
 09/29/2020 06:49 AM
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GreenLantern

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not strange for 2020
 09/29/2020 07:57 AM
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ncsurf

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Originally posted by: sw Still totally quiet in the tropics...very strange
Other than that 50% chance in the next 5 days over the NW Caribbean, right?
 09/29/2020 08:15 AM
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Plan B

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 09/29/2020 10:38 AM
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Cole

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Yes, the gulf coast needs another storm. Gulf storms are usually the case early in the season, does this mean we will have them up the East Coast till New Year?

Another couple of weeks of 40 knot east winds will be cool though. Said no one ever.

Edited: 09/29/2020 at 10:40 AM by Cole
 09/29/2020 01:23 PM
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sw

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Originally posted by: ncsurf

Originally posted by: sw

Still totally quiet in the tropics...very strange


Other than that 50% chance in the next 5 days over the NW Caribbean, right?


Ahhh...yes, you are correct...didn't check the 5-day!
 09/30/2020 06:36 AM
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Plan B

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Granted, take this with a UUGE grain of salt given its over 10 days out..... but I'm pretty sure the Panhandle could do without ANOTHER major hurricane. Dont look at the GFS Para (experimental Beta version)
 09/30/2020 07:18 AM
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SurferMic

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.

Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:30 PM by SurferMic
 09/30/2020 07:26 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: SurferMic Another one??? The Park is closed for Dredging...will be scouting alternatives
As in St. Andrews Park? I have another alternative..... swell angle may not be right. Still that map is 12 days out. Who knows what will happen.... hopefully nothing.
 10/02/2020 09:00 AM
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Plan B

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 10/02/2020 09:17 AM
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johnnyboy

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Rain and wind that is producing very little to surf.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 10/05/2020 05:23 AM
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dingpatch

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Delta looks like it is going to hit Louisiana as a CAT 2. Then, the long rand models are showing the remnants of Gamma heading up that way too.



 10/05/2020 05:54 PM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta
has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary
convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what
appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There
are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to
be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently
collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55
kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to
southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb,
much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an
18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that
there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern
quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for
strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or
less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These
conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once
the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours,
increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters
over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in
wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although
there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity
when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing
likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge
threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears
to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true
storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain
275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial
position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope
through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that
direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning
for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the
track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the
period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than
before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential
landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf
Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are
possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
 10/06/2020 05:05 AM
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dingpatch

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No problems, New Orleans always needs a good flushing out.
 10/06/2020 05:18 AM
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Plan B

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Already a Major..... Delta Force is to be reckoned with.....
 10/06/2020 07:02 AM
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SurferMic

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.

Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:30 PM by SurferMic
 10/06/2020 07:12 AM
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Plan B

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Yep, timing will be everything on this one..... we'll see. Trying to open some options.
FORUMS : Surfing : Tropics strangely quiet now

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