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Topic Title: Is it to early to start up the Hype train ?
Topic Summary: The Low that came off Africa looks like it could make a run up the coast
Created On: 07/25/2020 04:54 PM
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 07/27/2020 12:44 PM
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harrietdubman

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sneedeker



Edited: 07/27/2020 at 12:46 PM by harrietdubman
 07/27/2020 08:17 PM
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K07

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Joined Forum: 09/02/2012

It doesn't have to do much really.. it's a-symmetrical yes but on the northern half. The larger wind field is good for swell generation, so as long as it doesn't dive into the Caribbean it should usher in a nice SE swell for the weekend (Euro has trended a bit north today too aligning more with the GFS). With this scenario, falling apart as it approaches keeps our conditions good and doesn't threaten a costly landfall (swell will already be created). It's kind of a rare but good scenario. Normally when they approach like this we don't get swell before the bad winds, and we're praying for a recurve to avoid landfall and to get the good conditions. The next 48 hours are key.
 07/28/2020 04:01 AM
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Central Floridave

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Models changed up some overnight. Looks like tracking further East and moving closer to the Bahamas. Yesterday they showed it recurving North once above Puerto Rico. Something to watch!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
750 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually increasing
in organization. However, recent satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and the
low does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the
Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on
Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions
of the area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 07/28/2020 04:08 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: K07 It doesn't have to do much really.. it's a-symmetrical yes but on the northern half. The larger wind field is good for swell generation, so as long as it doesn't dive into the Caribbean it should usher in a nice SE swell for the weekend (Euro has trended a bit north today too aligning more with the GFS). With this scenario, falling apart as it approaches keeps our conditions good and doesn't threaten a costly landfall (swell will already be created). It's kind of a rare but good scenario. Normally when they approach like this we don't get swell before the bad winds, and we're praying for a recurve to avoid landfall and to get the good conditions. The next 48 hours are key.
As of this morning, this is pretty spot-on.... would be nice if it slowed down a bit though..... in the meantime, break out the GFS pom-poms.
 07/28/2020 06:08 AM
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dingpatch

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Tracking more West.

The spaghetti models now show it coming into FLA.



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Dora Hates You
 07/28/2020 06:12 AM
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dingpatch

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Yep, as previously discussed here, I've lived in Brevard since 1954 and I AM OVER IT! If it's going to be here as anything close to even a CAT 1, I'm Out Of Here!

But, then again, on last night's weather on WFTV (Ch 9) Tom Terry was showing longer term projections that show this as a big blob of rain passing to the south of Cuba but, with plenty of Wet for us. "Most" models do not show it becoming a hurricane. We shall see by Thursday night.

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 07/28/2020 at 06:16 AM by dingpatch
 07/28/2020 06:15 AM
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tom

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Funny, from ding's graphic above, "NHC Advisories and County Emergency Management statements supersede..." bla bla bla. Notice the only model missing? NHC. We're doomed.

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 07/28/2020 06:25 AM
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tom

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FWIW: Looked at the Navy's site, FNMOC, just now. GFS show a fizzle on Sat. WW3 shows a fairly strong storm <100 miles off 2ndlight on Sun. Be prepared scouts.

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 07/28/2020 06:40 AM
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garcia

Posts: 1470
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I don't know what sites to believe anymore. I used to use weatherunderground, and especially follow the Euro model but, after McMasters sold it, they are garbage. They don't even have a forecast for 92L, just a satellite image. I also use FNMOC but, they have changed it and the wave height forecast under the Meteorology Products link is completely different than the models shown under Tropical Applications, which, for the past few days, hasn't even had a forecasted path. I have gone directly to the Euro models but they have two different forecasted track overlays and they are both different too and they are too small to read which model is being used for which track. I sure miss McMaster's old weatherunderground blog and forecast maps.
 07/28/2020 06:44 AM
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mp2115

Posts: 174
Joined Forum: 05/29/2009

Its July and nothing to be concerned about until NHC gives a briefing on strength, location and destination. Check out Tropicaltidbits for entertainment first yet useful info on models
 07/28/2020 06:49 AM
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seaspray

Posts: 647
Joined Forum: 05/10/2012

Stay positive ya'll

Tropical storm far out into the sea, head high clean waves, during the weekend. Cold beer in your fridge waiting for you
 07/28/2020 07:47 AM
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long_flaco1

Posts: 1451
Joined Forum: 09/25/2003

Originally posted by: seaspray

Stay positive ya'll



Tropical storm far out into the sea, head high clean waves, during the weekend. Cold beer in your fridge waiting for you



*DOUBLE SHAKA'S*


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SK8 AND DESTROY
 07/28/2020 08:06 AM
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garcia

Posts: 1470
Joined Forum: 03/12/2007

mp2115 - Not worried, just interested
 07/28/2020 08:25 AM
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mp2115

Posts: 174
Joined Forum: 05/29/2009

NHC just posted
 07/28/2020 08:38 AM
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garcia

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Just saw it. Thanks.
 07/28/2020 08:42 AM
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dingpatch

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Fuck! Do you think I have enough time to get COVID and die before it gets here?

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Dora Hates You
 07/28/2020 08:59 AM
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LaJune

Posts: 62
Joined Forum: 10/04/2015

It's not going to hit Florida. If it stays as a weak TS or depression it will go south of the keys. If it gets to Hurricane status it will recurve and stay off shore. NHC is hedging their bets and forecasting something in the middle of that which I think is highly unlikely and so does the NHC.

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Heavy is sign of reliability
 07/28/2020 09:09 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: LaJune It's not going to hit Florida. .....I think is highly unlikely and so does the NHC.
need that fetch to stay on the NE side, and I'm surfing all weekend.

Edited: 07/28/2020 at 09:10 AM by Plan B
 07/28/2020 09:10 AM
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mp2115

Posts: 174
Joined Forum: 05/29/2009

Originally posted by: LaJune It's not going to hit Florida. If it stays as a weak TS or depression it will go south of the keys. If it gets to Hurricane status it will recurve and stay off shore. NHC is hedging their bets and forecasting something in the middle of that which I think is highly unlikely and so does the NHC.
Agreed. Good breakdown. Lets hope it does not defy gravity like Tesla.
 07/28/2020 12:06 PM
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Kimo63

Posts: 541
Joined Forum: 04/22/2012

Checked the Buoys this afternoon , Mid Atlantic is showing 10 ft swell and 12 ft wind waves heading this way . Hope the wind stays light offshore this weekend .
FORUMS : Surfing : Is it to early to start up the Hype train ?

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