Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low
pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a
well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next
several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it
encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF,
GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their
track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and
the various consensus models.

The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low
by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry
air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and
the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging
off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a
compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55
kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models.
The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change
intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 9.8N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

Edited: 07/22/2020 at 06:58 AM by Central Floridave

Named 'Gonzalo'

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become
significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible
imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of
an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while
a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective
ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to
a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should
steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for
the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the
west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little
changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the
consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly
and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid,
strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance
and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity
through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and
Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all
forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly
due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC
intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing
Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in
deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has
significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most
of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As
noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to
significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic
basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

Gonzalo is The Earliest #7 on the books!!

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Dora Hates You

Hate to tell you but every storm is going to be the earliest in the books!

Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE HANNA
HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 93.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...

NEW FEATURE!
1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual
development of this system is possible by early next week when it
reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Edited: 07/24/2020 at 08:28 AM by Central Floridave

Hanna got hurricane strength. Poor Texas. It will be flooding down in Texas, all the radio lines are down.... -srv


BULLETIN
Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...HANNA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CRAWLS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST...
...GUSTY SQUALLS OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

From nothing to a hurricane in a day or three. Methinks the ocean is warmed up! Not really showed up in the long range models.


Hurricane Hanna Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

NOAA Doppler radar data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas,
along with reconnaissance data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
indicate that Hanna has continued to strengthen this morning. A
well-defined but fairly large 30-35-nmi-wide eye has formed and
recent dropsonde data from the eye indicate that the central
pressure has dropped to 978 mb. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind speed of 77 kt, which equates to about 69 kt at
the surface. During the past hour, Doppler velocities have sharply
increased with numerous patches of 85-90 kt between 7000-8000 ft
common in the northern eyewall. Although these values would
typically correspond to surface winds of about 75 kt, the Doppler
velocity are occurring in low reflectivity regions of 25-30 dBZ, so
the full effect of those winds are likely not reaching the surface.
This could be why the highest SFMR surface wind observed by the
aircraft was only 63 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to
70 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft flight-level, radar, and
SFMR surface wind speed estimates.

The center position is a tad north of the recon fixes due to some
southward tilt of the eye caused by northerly shear. This has
resulted in a slower westward motion of 270/06 kt. The ridge to the
north of the hurricane has been slowly building westward and
southwestward based on upper-air data over the past 24 hours. This
slow ridging pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours,
resulting in Hanna gradually turning toward the west-southwest by
late this afternoon or evening, with landfall occurring in about 12
h along south Texas coast. After landfall, Hanna should continue
its west-southwestward motion until dissipation over the mountainous
terrain of northeastern Mexico in 48-60 h. The new NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close
to the tightly packed consensus model guidance.

Although the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain
out of the north-northwest to north at about 20 kt, the relatively
large and stable eye, along with the expected convective vigor of
the hurricane, could result in a little more strengthening just
before landfall occurs. After landfall, rapid weakening of the wind
field is expected. However, the weakening peak winds will have no
negative effect on the likelihood for heavy rainfall or the
possibility of isolated tornadoes developing.


Key Messages

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the warning area this morning.

3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of
southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 27.1N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Did you notice the intensity of the convective blow up with the little wave over the Bahamas this morning? 29-30 degree water has a lot of heat in it. That's just a little wave without favorable upper level dynamics. High pressure are bigger, deeper, further south and west too. How many storms do you ever see down around latitude 10N?

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...

Ladies and gentleman, July 2020 presents the African wave train....

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.