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Topic Title: Chop City returns Topic Summary: Maybe help the sandbars. Created On: 11/03/2022 08:45 AM |
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch |
- Central Floridave | - 11/03/2022 08:45 AM |
- ww | - 11/03/2022 09:47 AM |
- johnnyboy | - 11/03/2022 10:22 AM |
- tom | - 11/03/2022 11:55 AM |
- ww | - 11/03/2022 12:27 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/03/2022 12:51 PM |
- SurfCaster | - 11/03/2022 01:52 PM |
- pompano | - 11/03/2022 04:07 PM |
- ww | - 11/04/2022 12:00 AM |
- StirfryMcflurry | - 11/04/2022 10:47 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/04/2022 07:45 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/05/2022 04:30 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/05/2022 10:00 AM |
- surfnole | - 11/05/2022 02:58 PM |
- surfnole | - 11/05/2022 02:58 PM |
- dingpatch | - 11/06/2022 04:26 AM |
- johnnyboy | - 11/06/2022 05:33 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 11/07/2022 04:14 AM |
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11/03/2022 08:45 AM
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SYNOPSIS
A large ridge of high pressure covering the eastern U.S. will build across the western Atlantic by Friday. Freshening northeast winds and building seas will result in increasingly poor to hazardous boating conditions. An area of low pressure will gradually develop north of Hispaniola this weekend, producing fresh to strong onshore winds, with seas building further into next week. Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- 1010 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 THIS AFTERNOON North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. TONIGHT Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. FRIDAY Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. FRIDAY NIGHT East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. SATURDAY East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. SATURDAY NIGHT East winds 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers. SUNDAY East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Chance of showers. SUNDAY NIGHT Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Slight chance of showers. MONDAY Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Chance of showers. |
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11/03/2022 09:47 AM
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Edited: 11/03/2022 at 10:13 AM by ww |
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11/03/2022 10:22 AM
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I am excited. No waiting for sets, no crowds and size. I have a fat twinnie that puts mustard on that.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/03/2022 11:55 AM
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Check the NHC map for fun. Two named storms, two areas of disturbance, and it's November. Wheeee! Um, which day for the wind switch?
------------------------- add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway |
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11/03/2022 12:27 PM
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Have weather resistant camera. Happy to document messing with messy conditions
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11/03/2022 12:51 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Lisa, located inland over southeastern Mexico, and on Hurricane Martin, located over the central North Atlantic. 1. East of Bermuda: A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next few days as it moves slowly southward today and then turns westward by the weekend. The system is forecast to merge with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend and further development is not anticipated at that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. Southwestern Atlantic: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. |
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11/03/2022 01:52 PM
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Cue the sea lice
------------------------- "If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!" |
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11/03/2022 04:07 PM
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large swells generally remove sand from the beach and pull it offshore. North wind and swell will move the sand from North to South. Makes for cool little sinusoidal patterns at the shoreline though. At least the period is around 10sec, so might not take so much sand off the beach.
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11/04/2022 12:00 AM
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Surf-forecast's energy forecast for New Smyrna Inlet for Tuesday is crazy. 30 mph wind?
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11/04/2022 10:47 PM
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11/04/2022 07:45 AM
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Can change of course, but models have a low pressure moving into Miami area on Thursday the 10th. Virtual buoys have it 15 feet swells. Choppy mess.
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11/05/2022 04:30 AM
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2. Southwestern Atlantic: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. |
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11/05/2022 10:00 AM
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Head's Up...Models changing!
1. Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. |
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11/05/2022 02:58 PM
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Dup
Edited: 11/05/2022 at 02:59 PM by surfnole |
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11/05/2022 02:58 PM
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Winds calmed down. Only three guys out in front and they're destroying it.
Edited: 11/05/2022 at 03:00 PM by surfnole |
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11/06/2022 04:26 AM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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11/06/2022 05:33 PM
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Got to chop surf today. It was more fun than it looked and it was no picnic on the inside. Lots of big unconnected peaks and occasional open face connections.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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11/07/2022 04:14 AM
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000 WTNT42 KNHC 070900 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as 40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a subtropical storm. Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days, although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week. Key Messages: 1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the upcoming week. 2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg |
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FORUMS
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Surfing
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Chop City returns
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