Today:

Time to get some yard work done!

Tropics strangely quiet now

Good.

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I was right.

Still totally quiet in the tropics...very strange

not strange for 2020

Other than that 50% chance in the next 5 days over the NW Caribbean, right?

Yes, the gulf coast needs another storm. Gulf storms are usually the case early in the season, does this mean we will have them up the East Coast till New Year?

Another couple of weeks of 40 knot east winds will be cool though. Said no one ever.

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I was right.

Edited: 09/29/2020 at 10:40 AM by Cole

Ahhh...yes, you are correct...didn't check the 5-day!

Granted, take this with a UUGE grain of salt given its over 10 days out..... but I'm pretty sure the Panhandle could do without ANOTHER major hurricane. Dont look at the GFS Para (experimental Beta version)

.

Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:30 PM by SurferMic

As in St. Andrews Park? I have another alternative..... swell angle may not be right. Still that map is 12 days out. Who knows what will happen.... hopefully nothing.

Rain and wind that is producing very little to surf.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Delta looks like it is going to hit Louisiana as a CAT 2. Then, the long rand models are showing the remnants of Gamma heading up that way too.





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Dora Hates You

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta
has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary
convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what
appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There
are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to
be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently
collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55
kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to
southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb,
much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an
18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that
there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern
quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for
strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or
less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These
conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once
the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours,
increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters
over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in
wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although
there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity
when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing
likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge
threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears
to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true
storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain
275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial
position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope
through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that
direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning
for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the
track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the
period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than
before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential
landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf
Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are
possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

No problems, New Orleans always needs a good flushing out.

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Dora Hates You

Already a Major..... Delta Force is to be reckoned with.....

.

Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:30 PM by SurferMic

Yep, timing will be everything on this one..... we'll see. Trying to open some options.

Well.... you may need that step-up afterall.... it's in full BEAST-MODE and already borderline Cat 4!

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/weather/2020/10/06/watch--major-hurricane-delta-set-to-strike-mexico

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Still on the fence on this one..... BOC fetch interference and timing of winds... hmmmm

I just use Surfline as a quick check forecast. If you take away their obvious hypefactor/fudgefactor, it can be somewhat accurate.

I bet this swell peaks tomorrow. By Sunday it will be waist high but less winds

Surfline is pretty good but I've noticed they habitually under call the swell, if they say the swell is 3-5 foot, it usually is actually 4-6. And they do the same thing with the wind, tomorrow being a good example. Surfline says 6-8k knots all day but will most likely be 8-10 knots all day. I also can't figure out where they pull the numbers for their swells category if you click a surf spot. For example it says 7.7ft @ 10S and 2.6ft @ 12S for Cocoa Beach Pier but none of the buoys at Canaveral or further out show those numbers even if you look back a few hours from the most current reading to find a reading that matches. So I always look at Surfline, Patrick AFB's wind readings, and the 20 mile buoy to get an idea of what's going on when I can't take a look 1st hand myself.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

Spectral density plot for 41009 shows 35 m^2/Hz at 15 seconds. It pinged 13.1 feet and 15 seconds a little while ago. That is impressive.

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...

Last night when I went to bed wind in St. Aug was dead (with some hints of W).... wake up at 6 to see E 10-15

After seeing the flag on A1A by my house last night, I went to sleep as excited as a kid on Christmas Eve..... then I woke up to find Santa ate all the cookies , then took a dump in my stocking.

whats the BOC fetch interference?

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When America was "great"

Delta looks to be pretty tight right now.



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Dora Hates You

Bay of Campeche.... really Yucatan interference. Cleared that now and spinning up. Alot of fetch not pointing ideal direction. Gonna be good, but not all-time. Doesnt look like I'm going the way life has lined up for me this week.... barring something radical this afternoon surface winds

Thanks for that "Surface Winds" link Plan B!

It looks to me like the southern side of the storm system is pointing some strong fetch at the central gulf\Bradenton area.. I might have to make the trek over at dawn on Saturday! yyeewwwwww..

(do any of you guys share my assessment?)

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Friend of mine that lives near Lake Charles just got his power back Sunday, 38 days after Laura. I suspect he is about to lose it again.

Lake Charles, and that whole area, is going to be a Royal Cluster Fuck when those winds hit. There are still overhead piles of loose debris from Laura. Can you say "projectile"?

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Dora Hates You

Glad I didnt make that trek.... Poor peeps in LA are having a rough year.

I bet there are parts that will never come back. And the season still isn't over. What's next, Cyrillic?



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I was right.

"I bet there are parts that will never come back. And the season still isn't over. What's next, Cyrillic?" Sign language is next, starting with the middle finger and ending with the middle finger. With middle fingers in between.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

Edited: 10/12/2020 at 01:30 PM by LaJune

Sunday Dawn Patrol @ Manatee County the waves were occasional head high with light onshores! "Glad I made that trek!" yeeewwwwww

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SK8 AND DESTROY

you must not be very tall



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"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell


"Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right.


If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore.

The Atlantic is now seeing cold fronts, pretty vigorous ones.

LOL..... Latest long-range GFS forecast is coocoo for cocoa puffs

Greenland goblin dipping south!?

Azores swell?

The Fat Lady isnt singing yet.

as I was saying... That one in the open atlantic already has a solid wind rotation on the surface maps.

Lots of fetch pointing this way, and both GFS & EURO unusually in sync in regards to the open ocean low. GFS ditched the carribean supercane, so hopefully we get some light wind windows (common theme this year).... could be battle of the weekend warriors next weekend. Everyone go get really drunk after work next friday

2 days in a row of real fun/challenging HIGH TIDE mid to shore pound. You can get a chip shot in on the big ones and they are unloading in the deep shore break....King tides are good for this windswell/swell event. knee to heah-high+ and everything in between,, Pulled back on some drainers that would have snapped a board...Drift S to N today (was N-S yesterday)...so more of the Storm sets are reaching the beach...GO!!! Water is warm!

Yeah, I went out for a HT "lunchbreak".... wasnt dumping as hard here (too high) but some chunky ones. wind was kinda light for an hour, so I got away from the desk and got some exercise. good to loosen up before the incoming........ Biggest swell of the season may come from a tropical storm.... solid fetch. BONERS: .

Edited: 10/20/2020 at 10:58 AM by Plan B

. Detailed Wave Summary for 41049 as of 1140 GMT on 10/21/2020: These wave data are displayed in rounded times. Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. 5-day plot - Significant Wave Height Significant Wave Height (WVHT): 17.7 ft 5-day plot - Swell Height Swell Height (SwH): 15.4 ft 5-day plot - Swell Period Swell Period (SwP): 13.8 sec 5-day plot - Swell Direction Swell Direction (SwD): ENE

Edited: 10/21/2020 at 05:59 AM by Plan B

41049 Swell Height Swell Height (SwH): 19.0 ft 5-day plot - Swell Period Swell Period (SwP): 13.8 sec 5-day plot - Swell Direction Swell Direction (SwD): ENE

Epsilon is maintaining a healthy satellite appearance this morning after its rapid intensification last night. A 10-to-15 n mi-wide eye is evident in visible satellite imagery this morning, and 0815Z GMI 89 GHz microwave imagery shows a closed eyewall with deep convection surrounding the well-defined center. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB support raising the initial intensity to 80 kt with this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon for a better estimate. Epsilon took a brief westward jog this morning, and its initial motion is now estimated at 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north-northeast of the cyclone should continue steering Epsilon toward the west-northwest today with a slightly slower forward speed. Then, another ridge is forecast to build to the east of the hurricane, which should turn the cyclone toward the northwest on Thursday and northward on Friday. Weak vertical wind shear and waters with marginal oceanic heat content could allow for some additional modest strengthening toda , and the NHC intensity forecast now brings Epsilon to a 85-kt hurricane in 12 h.

Edited: 10/21/2020 at 08:44 AM by Plan B

Decent sets rolling in on the cams. The swell looks hard south, even at the port.

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I was right.

Hi Tide Indi Lunch report....bigger, much more energy than yesterday, Head High+ fun..but low wave count, just out-of-sync with the sets today, took a few beatings...and someone ripped off my $15 cheap black sandels at the neighborhood beach??? I hope the scumbag gets karama...Air BnBer's only ones around, now I have to hide my sandels out front? F Air BNB!

wind hasn't been kind to us on these last couple of storm systems

That is very true... Swell from epsilon seems to be peaking over next few days, anyone have any thoughts of when might get a little breather in these on shores??? My usual thought is dawn patrol but seems like crazy windy even when I walk dog first thing in morning

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

HA. Sounds like my quick lunchbreak session.... pleasantly surprised, but hard to get many waves in under an hour. sorry about your slaps.... 110 and moving WNW at 9... YEWWWW

Washington Post (they have good weather coverage):

On Tuesday morning, Epsilon was a 45 mph tropical storm; by early Wednesday, it had morphed into a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. It surprised meteorologists when it intensified into a high-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds early Wednesday afternoon, with a chance that it will reach major hurricane status as a Category 3.

That significantly exceeds the criterion for "rapid intensification" of 35 mph or more in 24 hours. Epsilon jumped at least 50 mph in that same time frame

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Hoping we SCORE this weekend, cuz I'm Kinda wishing I made the mega-trek to OBX rt now.

Getting closer. NW BAHAMA BUOY: 41047 as of (6:40 am EDT) 1040 GMT on 10/22/2020: 5-day plot - Significant Wave Height Significant Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft 5-day plot - Swell Height Swell Height (SwH): 10.2 ft 5-day plot - Swell Period Swell Period (SwP): 14.8 sec 5-day plot - Swell Direction Swell Direction (SwD): E

The 20 miler is 8.2 at 11. Swell certainly isn't a problem.

Loving the east wind.

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I was right.

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Dora Hates You

12 feet 14 seconds at 20 mile. another wasted swell with onshores!

Good for me though, I'm nursing a knee injury and can't surf now.

TODAY
East winds 10 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with a dominant
period 14 seconds.

TONIGHT
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with a
dominant period 13 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal
waters. Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a
dominant period 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal
waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A
light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms.

SUNDAY
Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light
chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Slight chance of showers.

MONDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight
chance of showers.

MONDAY NIGHT
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

TUESDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight
chance of showers.

It is a shame, finally a slow-moving 'cane slotted in our window. Could've been epic, but it looks like there can still be some fun once the winds kinda die down

Can someone explain to me why the onshores are so persistent right now?