Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined
center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure
system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become more organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical
depression as early as later today if these development trends
continue. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few
days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Also long range WX models showing a possible broad low pressure off Hatteras Monday of next week.

Looks to become a TD, send us a small (but rideable pulse) before encountering some dry / harsh conditions in the Caribbean..... the GFS long range in regards to that open ocean low, just seems too good to be true. While possible, How often does that actually happen?

A Nor'easter in August 2020. Why not? Lol.

We need it. It's flat as hell out there, you'd think there was a surf contest scheduled

Hahaha

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Time and tide wait for no one.....

TD 11...hype machine ENGAGE....

#Josephine

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Edited: 08/11/2020 at 01:53 PM by jdbman

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day
have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring
over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated
circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep
convection has persisted with the system since about this time
yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with
30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a
large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic.
This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break
developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours.
This change should allow the depression to begin making more
poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until
the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good
agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed,
and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast
lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster
through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model,
and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5.

Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses
suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from
much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the
case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been
pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation.
This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which
should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a
peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For
this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and
the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or
southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt
by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening.
In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that
the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough
near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible
alternate scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in
the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm
activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the
entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16
high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in
conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear.
The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt,
respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through
tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong
subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all
of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness
will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more
toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the
end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track
changes were made.

The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment
and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive
environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move
underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone.
This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a
pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much
lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air
entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding
environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected
to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but
steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and
beyond, the global models and regional models show the system
moving out from underneath the positive influence of the
upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce
gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h
period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface
temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of
opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is
currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the
consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to
anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 12.2N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

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Dora Hates You

Well I am going to be optimistic about this.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

here we go again. yes, I too am just going to stay optimistic

It stays small enough to not override our sandbars before it falls apart. It should be fun if it doesn't effect the local winds.

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I was right.

Chest high... "fun" waves. Not as good as last one (at least up here)

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds
about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven,
and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm
Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery
shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has
become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a
ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern
semicircle.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt.
Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as
it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of
the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause
the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn
northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track
and a little to the left of the consensus models.

Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24-
36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical
wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter
moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should
cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is
adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity.
After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but
not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating
to a tropical wave before 120 h.

Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the
Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm
Jose on August 22, 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

Hatteras Low:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

1. A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several
days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

ok... credit to the GFS

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/13/2020 at 03:24 PM by dingpatch

Weiland says the pulse hits Tuesday, waist high clean with offshores until noon in central Florida.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

jb

Concur, see you all in the line up.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

I think he's understating the size. I am hopeful that's it's a bit bigger. Bringing the log, the egg and the fish.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Kyle

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Kyle was the same weekend as doctors lawyers weekend warriors. What a swell. Got a standing five count in an overhead tube.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

The name "Kyle" should have been retired. Kyle the Wave Giver shall never be forgotten!

I showed up for DLWW that morning and said "no frigging way am I going to paddle out at first peak in THAT on a 10 foot nose rider! Went home and got my "short board", a 9'2" DT2 Surftech, and surfed the DOH Hole until I was out of breath!

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Dora Hates You

We probably crossed each other's paths numerous times that weekend.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

St Martin buoy has been solid for last 24 hours sending SE swell near 10 feet at 10 sec . The worms are slowly crawling

Some log waves in CB this morning. The bars are looking pretty good..

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I was right.

"Even as #Kyle became post-tropical & #Josephine seems likely to dissipate, 2 more system are being watched for development in the NATL main development region. As active convective envelope of the MJO shifts E, the NATL will likely stay active in the 2nd half of August." papin

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Im SOOOO Torn!

Holy CONFLICTING REPORTS batman! Some of my go to forecasters are saying its NOT happening tomorrow morning but most likely tomorrow evening.. Some are saying Tomorrow morning, and some are saying WEDNESDAY morning!

#inlandsurferproblems



(Got stoked on the J. Wieland report cause I told my bosses last week that TUESDAY will be the day i take off to go surf, but now I'm just lost on the "right call to make")

Any suggestions?

Signed,
Central FL Inland Surfer

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Wed North of the Cape...see you there...not expecting much....but hopefully back on the short board again

Edited: 08/17/2020 at 06:59 AM by SurferMic

That....will be the smart move.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Due to Covid I banked more VAC days than I can use by the end of the year...was planning to burn one this week anyways so Wed sounds good...Hopefully the next system goes into the Gulf and I can take a longer VAC to the Panhandle for a day or two then continue on to Waco...long way out but planning just in case.

from Dean at Surf Station:

"Looking ahead... Models indicate a strong and expansive high pressure ridge centered along 35N latitude will build over 2/3rds of the Atlantic Ocean. This high, combined with lower pressure to the south in the ITCZ, will induce a lengthy easterly fetch extending through the last week of August. This scenario will generate a multiple day swell and also propel any tropical systems that develop westward into the Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico. Game on..."

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

8/17/20 8pm

Good Trend on the 120, possible knee to waist mid am CB 8/18/20.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

If you have limited # of days to pull, I wouldnt waste them for this......

Keep an eye on the 47 buoy and the 1010 buoy . should start to see something tomorrow morning , if not , not much is coming. The 47 is rising , but still nothing to take work off from .

Agreed.... should be some fun waves, but.... prob just some DP sessions for me

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Dora Hates You

Thank you gentlemen!

Highly appreciate ya!

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Just listened to Levi at TT . Very interesting stuff for this weekend into the first part of next week. A few good models have a storm pushing into the Bahamas next Monday . Speculation with science
jdbman , I agree that the 1010 buoy is trending up , but it's from the ESE direction at 9sec . The NE Bahamas 47 buoy is show 10 sec from more SE direction , that's the juice that may or may not reach us
update : the 120 miler has been pinging since early morning ,see if there are any worms to be found when the sun rises

Edited: 08/18/2020 at 03:30 AM by Kimo63

best kind for us.... size and period increases.... hoping for evening T-storm glass-off

Fun morning. Kinda fat with the high tide but got better and more consistent towards mid-morning, was getting fun as I left.

Let's get that hype train a rolling boys!!

I just got back from surfing 2L. Space X launch was cool. Tuesday Surf is 2 feet, maybe 3. Long lines, SE angle. Its rideable, best for longboards right now. Maybe with the tide lower. Wind just turned onshore. Saw some sets starting to break on the outside.

Wind just turned onshore. Damn. Haste manana.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Fun for sure. Plenty of waves on the shortie.

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I was right.

90 MPH west wind with the storm, now it's back onshore and the lightning isn't even done.

Florida can be a real bitch.

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I was right.

The boy and I surfed S Cocoa Beach 11-2. Waist to chest SE lines with plenty of open faces. Wind turned onshore around 1230. I videoed him for the last hour. Was a blast on the Neilson quadster. I had enough good waves that my son actually fell under the illusion that I can surf.

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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

That's a great dad moment. Summer. Fickle. You got a moment though.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Lets hope the latest GFS update is a computer glitch.

Still swell, but with some morning sickness. It looks like there was an early morning thunderstorm offshore and the winds hacked it up a bit. The westerlies seem to be straightening it up again. It might be fun from 10:30 to 11:00.

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I was right.

Yes Cole! Sweet wind switch yesterday around 3 as well. Still waves this morn. high tide sandbars have built back in. The grom pack at first north was hilarious! A couple serious rippers in the mayhem. I surfed at nuts with guards and beach vendor crew. Very pleasant morning

found some fun ones this morning
at secret high tide spot

Duff, Vic from Costa, Bowman, Tommy Maus, the Neilsons, McLaren, Claude, Alan White, the Russels, Cape Surf crew, Jimmy of QF, Catalyst groms and those interloping bastards from down south like hunter Joslin and John "I'm going to fade Cole off of this wave" Carter, do give the area quite the scene!



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I was right.

Major models in agreement for a big one in the near future....

Definition of stoke in those photos above! Like 'em.

Plan B is on it. Some of the models are showing one coming right at us the week after labor Day , others have a Cat 3 spinning towards Bermuda . Plenty more behind that in Africa to follow. Might be a very busy September .

Edited: 08/27/2020 at 05:43 PM by Kimo63

GFS = super BULLISH (as usual)... Last 2 updates = . EURO calling the system too, but slows it's roll a bit. I like GFS for a regular local weather patterns, but Longterm forecasts on tropical systems I tend to lean towards the Euro. We'll see