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Edited: 06/04/2020 at 11:04 AM by SurferMic

I dont think the direction will bode very well..... unless it blows up fast in the BOC, but even then.... swell may get beaten by the Missippi delta... but what do I know

Edited: 06/01/2020 at 10:18 AM by Plan B

well.... GFS is pretty bullish (as usual) and has a much favorable fetch direction. EURO (who often does better with tropical systems) has it further west with not ideal direction (and not as strong).... we 'll see

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Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:33 PM by SurferMic

That Beach Street is pretty damn fun.

But then again, so is chunky chop and there is no driving involved.

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I was right.

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche. Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche. After that time,
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with
land. Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical
storm strength. Later in the period, the guidance suggests that
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward,
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of
days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity
forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

.

Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic

Edited: 06/04/2020 at 07:22 AM by RocketSurf

.

Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

.

Edited: 06/04/2020 at 07:23 AM by RocketSurf

I was looking at clearwater's forecast for Sunday. 9' at 11 seconds with 30mph wind side shore. What will that translate to?

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Current forecast = no go for Plan B

.

Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic

Ive done that goose chase enough..... of course everything can change, but ATM doesnt look to be strong enough or slow enough to be worth it. swell gets shadowed by yucatan.... then shows up when the wind does. Some parks close and give the boot.... I did score the one benefit of Katrina (and Wilma) though.....

. Radio Silence..

Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic

This crap weather over Florida should be turning into another low any day now.

Well...a tropical low, obviously it's already some kind of low considering the rain.

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I was right.

Edited: 06/04/2020 at 05:57 AM by Cole

Tracks slows..... Silence commences.... hmmm.....

There are no secrets anymore. Zoo lineups in three, two, one..



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I was right.

http://www.spadre.com/

SUPs, logs and some guy on a hydrofoil just came zooming into the picture. lol

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I was right.

There is a guy on the far outside on a foil sup. Nightmare. lol

preach it brother

Small and clean in South Padre Island this morning. Great forecast......... will be rocking late weekend in to next week.............legit

www.spadre.com

Yep.... more direct fetch direction + better winds. Should be pumping!...... btw. just clicked that link, and immediately saw a guy go fully vertical twice, then finish with a 360 to end the wave.... DONT MESS WITH TEXAS! LOL.

This is the equivalent of the old surf shop report being busy the whole day there's waves.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

yikes! circ du soleil (sp)

-------------------------
ola ~

south padre produces especially when the gulf is full of an storm heading north

If you called Quiet Flight in the mid to late 80's, you probably got your surf report from me.



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I was right.

2400

Swell headed to the Venice/Ana Maria area, but the storm is close enough to influence the wind, so the window might be short.

Padre looks smallish.

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I was right.

Edited: 06/06/2020 at 06:58 AM by Cole

Haha, classic!

784 NA redial redial redial redial

that was oceanside

South wind for the evening session. Not much swell, at least by our buoy measurements anyway.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/stati...age.php?station=42098

Still kinda offshore winds in Venice.

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I was right.

St Andrews looked good tonight, almost as crowded as I've ever seen it but hard to tell just saw Snapchat videos unfortunately sick with the flu. This place is kinda going off, some good breaks in that area but super sharky. http://www.aquaessence.com/index.cfm/m/54

Im sure it was a shitshow... 1st storm of season usually is, and not big enough to weed out the "small wave hero" crowd. Yeah, that area south is super sharky..... dudes advertise shark fishing charters in that area

More pics from Saturday of the west coast from Gulfster



A couple pics.....










-------------------------
Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

I'm bagging the trip. Three hours across the state in heavy thunderstorms to surf a heat high wave with a 20mph south wind on it is not enough for me. That's funny cole. Every surf shop did that. Mine was Island Water Sports. I remember my friend flying across my lawn to tell me the IWS surf report was off the hook. Literally. We all knew what that meant.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

South Padre going off this morning! Cam looks great - overhead and clean www.spadre.com

Okay Texas people, turn back into the pocket and quit outrunning the damn waves! It's not a race.

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I was right.

Surfed Captiva yesterday afternoon and it wasn't like the pics. We missed it by 4 hours. We first drove to Anna Marie and it was barely thigh high.

Surf pics are the best waves of the best sets and unlike the saying, don't always tell a thousand words.

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I was right.

Overhead, clean with jetty block but disorganized and breaking fast is the report from my son in the PCB area. Locally I surfed some reasonable knee to thigh SE windswell this am. Floaty board stuff.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Yep, there is a little south wedge behind the house that I plan on hitting when the day looks a little more friendly.



-------------------------
I was right.

Looked terrible in Lido Beach, where I wanted to go. Glad I saved the gas. Part of me wishes I just went to try, but there will be other opportunities.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Zach just called. They scored 8 to 10 clean looong lefts at a break , Stoked for him and his buddies.

Edited to protect break identity. Srry got caught up in stoke.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 06/08/2020 at 11:03 AM by daner

dont worry, we all know it was jeff bezos' spot.

-------------------------

sneedeker

Edited: 06/07/2020 at 03:56 PM by harrietdubman

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

But most videos on u tube take you to a tidal bore in South America.

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I was right.

Sorry for those who reached out to ride along...it was too close to call...Looked at the long Range forecast for East Coast of FL and it is horrible for all of June!!! So made last min decision to go (was not planning on)...Well worth the trip Head high+ somewhere between Naples and the AL state line. Winds had just enough East early in the AM to be real fun , then it went S but it stayed fun. It's June and if there is a Headhigh+ wave in the state of FL I will be on it...can't fly anywhere right now...Now the crowds...INSANE, that's why we need to remove this thread...even my goto unknown spot was packed, luckily the talent level is lower on that coast, so any good surfer can get their's. I just put the shortboards back up in the rafters...gonna be a while before I need them again...Good to get one more shortbaord session in now that summer is here

Edited: 06/08/2020 at 10:13 AM by SurferMic

was it head high +?

no just joking it was knee to thigh...it's never worth the drive over

Edited: 06/09/2020 at 05:45 AM by SurferMic

thiccy rollers comin in ^

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sneedeker