Bottom falls out this weekend. NOAA has IHB Saturday night low at 37 and Sunday night at 39. 

Really? That low? I checked earlier this morning and it was mid-40s. Gonna have to recheck.

My cousins in Austin Texas was getting snow yesterday. Kinda early and far south for that. Probably gonna be an interesting winter.

I'm seeing a large discrepancy of low temps too. I see Accuweather has 44/45 as lows for Sat/Sun. NOAA is being pretty aggressive with the lows.

from weather.com, super early texas snow

In central Texas, 1 to 2 inches of snow fell Thursday night along the Austin-San Antonio corridor. Four inches of snow accumulated in Dime Box, Texas, east of Austin.

College Station's Easterwood Field measured 5 inches of snow Thursday, their heaviest calendar-day snow on record.

They had never previously reported measurable snow in December in records dating to 1951.

However, a cooperative station 6 miles southwest of College Station reported a 6-inch snowfall on Jan. 30, 1949, as well as previous December measurable snow events on Dec. 11, 1945 (0.5 inch), Dec. 20-21, 1929 (5.5 inches total), Dec. 21, 1927 (0.5 inch), and Dec. 9, 1898 (0.5 inch).

Gonna be a shock. November was about the warmest on record around here. A few plants heavily regulated by photo period have gone to sleep or are headed that way. Tropicals are still cranking. Have a bed full of tropical ground orchids in full bloom right now. Vanda out in the magnolia is sending up a spike. 

I'm a little worried about the plum tree and blueberries that we set out. They got nuked by Irma; completely defoliated plus the shriveling death of all young branches on the southeast side. I trimmed out the dead and the remaining branches flushed new leaves. I'm worried that those could be extra sensitive since the plants should be heading toward dormancy right now instead of actively growing. I guess we will be okay as long as we don't get frost.

The crop of butterflies that we got last week will probably be the last for the year.

-------------------------
...

I'm just happy to finally be able to turn the A/C off for a few days and use the cooler weather to get some heavy lifting yard work done.

Speaking of Irma, other than the leaning palms you can't tell there was any damage. Everything has bounced back in my yard. Mostly all tropicals though so they do good with warmth/rain.

My tangerine are finally ripe but not quite sweet enough. A cold snap will help.

Lagoon is really warm for this first big front. Should insulate MI and beaches pretty well.

Us on the west will have our lows dictated by whether or not the wind is perfectly alined with the peninsula or if we can marine influence. We are between Florida Ave and the water. I have seen mornings where it was 48 degrees at our house at 5 AM but 32 degrees over on the west side of the county. I go for a paddle and feel a cold puff of west wind just before daybreak. I come back from the paddle and everything is covered in frost from Rockledge Drive all the way up the street. That cold air just comes spilling over the little ridge that divides the SJR basin from the lagoon. That happens best when the St. Johns is all dried up. The present warm and wet SJR marsh might provide some cold protection to all of us this time around.

-------------------------
...

2" of snow on the ground here this morning in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Cajun snowmen

How's that for an oxymoron?

They need practice.

I saw some images of snowfall in Brownsville, Tx. That's on the border of Texas and Mexico. Also saw some images of accumulating snow in McAllen, Tx, which is a little west of Brownsville.

The more tropical plants really are busy.  Gotta take a bunch of orchids and bromeliads indoors tomorrow.  Maybe a few baby palms and shrubs, too.  

Weather.com only shows a low of 44F for beachside. I'm not worried about that temp. Getting great rain right now. Rye Grass gonna be killing it and this wind and cold just gonna wash the mosquito away!

from Melbourne NWS forecast discussion early Saturday morning:


Tonight...Skies will rapidly clear out early as axis of mid level
trough aloft passes. Fresh northwest low level winds behind the
front will usher in much colder air. Min temps across the area are
forecast in the mid-upper 30s but no frost is expected due to the
dryness of the air and boundary layer winds staying 10-15 mph. A
wind chill advisory may be necessary early Sun morning for values
in the lower-mid 30s.

Sun-Mon...Axis of high pressure ridge extending over the deep south
will settle slowly south into north Florida by Mon morning. This
will maintain a cool and dry northerly wind flow. High temperatures
ranging from the mid 50s north and lower 60s south on Sun should
modify to the mid 60s Mon. With the ridge axis closer to the area
Mon morning, boundary layer winds will drop off and patchy frost is
possible with lows again in the mid-upper 30s.

Tue-Fri...West/northwest flow aloft dominates through this period.
Fairly significant troughing aloft over the northeast U.S. early in
the period with pinwheeling energy that will push a shortwave trough
through the southeast U.S. on Tue driving a reinforcing surface
front across ECFL Tue night. Another shortwave trough will plow
through the southeast U.S. and FL peninsula on Fri that will also
push another cold frontal boundary through the area (GFS only with
this solution). Surface high pressure will build into the region Wed-
Thu after the first front and ahead of the second boundary, then get
reinforced once again Fri overnight behind the second boundary.

Conditions appear to remain mainly dry over land, but will add a
small PoP (showers) for Fri to account for a potential frontal
passage and as long as enough moisture can return ahead of the
boundary. Temperatures rebound on Tue with U60s/L70s areawide for
highs. Max temps on Wed cooler behind the most recent front and
generally in the L-M60s, except north of I-4 where temps will
struggle into the U50s to around 60 degrees. Highs will moderate
again back into the M-U60s, potentially L70s far southern coverage
warning area on Thu, then upwards again on Fri 70-75 degrees, except
U60s north of I-4. Lows generally in the 40s Tue-Wed nights
areawide, then U40s/L-M50s Thu-Fri nights. The immediate Treasure
Coast and adjacent barrier islands will stay a few degrees warmer
than these lows.

46 F Sunday morning in my backyard

600 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OCALA PTCLDY 32 29 88 N5 30.29R WCI 27
LEESBURG CLEAR 42 32 67 NW14 30.28R WCI 35
SANFORD CLEAR 40 31 70 NW9 30.26R WCI 34
ORLANDO EXEC CLEAR 41 29 62 NW10 30.26R WCI 35
ORLANDO INTL CLEAR 41 25 52 NW17 30.27R WCI 32
KISSIMMEE CLEAR 40 32 73 NW6 30.27R WCI 36
WINTER HAVEN CLEAR 40 30 67 N14 30.27R WCI 32
BARTOW FAIR 39 27 60 N9 30.27R WCI 33
SEBRING FAIR 42 29 60 N14 30.25R WCI 35


EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DAYTONA BEACH CLEAR 39 31 72 NW12 30.26R WCI 32
DELAND PTCLDY 39 28 65 NW9 30.26R WCI 33
JFK SPACE CTR CLEAR 41 36 82 NW9 30.23R WCI 35
CAPE CANAVERAL CLEAR 42 32 66 NW17 30.22R WCI 34
PATRICK AFB CLEAR 44 34 66 NW21G26 30.23R WCI 36
MELBOURNE CLEAR 41 33 73 NW10 30.24R WCI 35
VERO BEACH CLEAR 42 34 73 NW10 30.24R WCI 36
FT PIERCE CLEAR 42 34 73 NW14 30.23R WCI 35
STUART CLEAR 46 34 61 NW12G18 30.23R WCI 41

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER FAIR 34 30 86 CALM 30.29R
INVERNESS FAIR 34 32 93 NW3 30.29R
BROOKSVILLE CLEAR 38 28 67 N8 30.29R WCI 32
CLEARWATER AIR CLOUDY 41 32 70 NE6 30.28R WCI 37
ST PETE CLEARW MOCLDY 47 36 65 N15G22 30.28R WCI 41
TAMPA INTL PTCLDY 44 28 53 NE6 30.29R WCI 41
TAMPA EXEC CLEAR 37 30 75 N6 30.30R WCI 33
PLANT CITY CLEAR 39 28 65 N3 30.30R
MACDILL AFB MOCLDY 42 27 55 NE8 30.27R WCI 37
PETER O KNIGHT N/A 41 30 65 N8 30.29R WCI 36
ST PETERSBURG PTCLDY 49 39 68 NE17 30.26R WCI 43
SARASOTA CLEAR 45 39 79 NE5 30.25R WCI 43
VENICE FAIR N/A N/A N/A NE12G18 30.26R


CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH CLEAR 44 34 67 NW13 30.22R WCI 38
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLEAR 47 34 60 NW12 30.21R WCI 42
FT LAUDERDALE CLEAR 48 33 56 NW14G23 30.20R WCI 42
POMPANO BEACH CLEAR 48 34 58 NW16 30.21R WCI 42
PEMBROKE PINES CLEAR 49 39 68 NW16 30.22R WCI 43
OPA LOCKA CLEAR 49 38 65 N10 30.21R WCI 45
MIAMI PTCLDY 51 38 60 NW12G21 30.20R
WEST KENDALL CLEAR 49 37 63 N17 30.20R WCI 43
HOMESTEAD CLEAR 49 38 65 NW17 30.19R WCI 43

PORT EVERGLADES 50 320/ 11/ 18 1022.1R
VIRGINIA KEY 52 76 310/ 8/ 15 1022.0R
LAKE WORTH 47 75 320/ 15/ 18 1023.8R
FOWEY ROCKS 54 76 340/ 25/ 27 1022.9R
SETTLEMENT POINT 63 340/ 22/ 26 1020.5R

I had 43 at 6:45am. 

It was 44 when I headed out for a paddle this morning with NW wind at 10.

About 15 minutes before sunrise the wind switched to the west and the cold air drainage kicked in.

There was frost on the roof tops on the west shore in Rockledge when I came in at 7.

 

-------------------------
...

Ugh on the frost. Saw some FB photos of frost on roof over on the mainland.

Cold weather keeps going on. Friend said frost on car this morning in Titusville.

Can't remember a time that it is this cold this early and for so long.


Warming trend next week.

December 1989 is the benchmark for me for December cold snaps.

-------------------------
...

I was not a gardener back in 89 but I do remember waking up the morning-of and my sprinkler head was frozen over in Satellite Beach. Remember going to surf Reef Road xmas day 89 and it was really good.

Later in the years and growing tropicals the old timers always would talk about the xmas 89 freeze. 17F recorded in Wabaso is what I heard. Not sure how accurate that number was. But, you probably are not going to find a coconut palm that is older than 1989. Supposedly Christmas 1985 was another hard freeze.

2010 winter (not December) was our last hard winter. December was warm then Jan/Feb/March and I think even to April was super cold.